General Election 2019

[Denny Crane]

15 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Kantar- 

Very odd- I get that turnout might be depressed due to the poll being held in December, but by that much? And with a big increase in over 65's turnout?

 

 

Pollsters normally ask a question something along the lines of how likely are you to vote 1-10 or likely very likely etc. They factor the answer to this question in how they weight the turnout in age groupings. 

[Mudface]

2 minutes ago, Denny Crane said:

Pollsters normally ask a question something along the lines of how likely are you to vote 1-10 or likely very likely etc. They factor the answer to this question in how they weight the turnout in age groupings. 

Yeah, I know, I'm just surprised at how low the figures are. Maybe they're just capturing a widespread apathy amongst the electorate? Dunno.

[Dougie Do'ins]

3 hours ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

Does anyone know anyone who genuinely supports the Tories?

 

On the few occasions I come across anyone  (in real life or online) who says they'll vote Tory, their reasons are all about Labour.  I've not heard anyone get excited about the people or the policies the Tories have got on offer.

In work I do. Really odd as our head office is in the city centre yet most of the office bods are from the Wirral, Cheshire or north of Liverpool. Formby, Southport, Ormskirk etc.

 

I've only been there for about 18 months but it's got to the point where I avoid going in the staff room. I've had to tell one person not to discuss politics with me anymore. He comes across as an 'I'm alright Jack' type and I've told him so.

[Guest Pistonbroke]

Need to hand out a free Big Mac at polling stations for every vote cast. Record turn out. 

 

Werther Originals 5 years past the sell by date for over 65's to turn the miserable old bastards away.

 

Bit of trivia for you on a Sunday afternoon. Werther originals were  named after a small town just up the road from our city. They are produced in Halle another town also in our area. I worked in an engineering factory in Werther and I basically made a load of the spare parts needed for the Storck machinery. 

[Denny Crane]

9 minutes ago, Mudface said:

Yeah, I know, I'm just surprised at how low the figures are. Maybe they're just capturing a widespread apathy amongst the electorate? Dunno.

If there is apathy then that is very bad news. I suspect there is some sort of response bias being picked up and different pollsters treating turnout in 2017 as an outlier.

[SasaS]

59 minutes ago, viRdjil said:

One good thing to come out of Tory getting a majority this Xmas with that buffoon in charge, hopefully it’ll put to bed this nonsense about how to win an election you need a charismatic, statesman-like, moderate leader in charge of your party. 

This may not be quite the same thing, you don't need to be moderate to be charismatic, and there is something about Johnson that makes him very appealing to the target audience.

[Brownie]

2 hours ago, Denny Crane said:

Survation had a Tory lead of 18% at a similar time in the 2017 GE campaign. 

I know, that was part of my point about how the Tories massively fucked up in the last few weeks of their campaign. I can’t see them making the same mistakes again.

 

So it’s 6% now (will be higher in the next poll I reckon) versus 18% at an equivalent time in the last election.

 

My prediction is that it will get no better than 6%.

[Bobby Hundreds]

I thought Corbyn was good on Marr. Far far better than Dominic Raab whose answer to immigration was we want to attract entrepreneurs, all they give a fuck about is profit.

[Guest Pistonbroke]

4 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

I thought Corbyn was good on Marr. Far far better than Dominic Raab whose answer to immigration was we want to attract entrepreneurs, all they give a fuck about is profit.

 

It just fits in with their Brexit dreams. They only want the best parts of a so called deal and to hell with anything that may not be of their liking. Immigration needs to be fair and also enticing to those you seek to employ. A lot of these so called entrepreneurs will want to bring over family, how will that go when red tape gets in the way because they aren't skilled. 
 

If you were looking to move abroad and your skills were in demand, would you go to a country that treats immigrants badly and puts all sorts of red tape in the way for your family to join you, or do you go to a country that embraces it all? 

 

 

[sir roger]

I think the leader debates is a big chance for Labour to make ground , but Corbyn needs to be very focused in his responses. I thought he was decent last time and clearly outshone the very poor May effort , but he was a bit waffly on the likes of Trident and defence and needs to have short, sharp soundbites when these inevitably get asked and also be a little more strident. I don't think you need to be apologetic about not wanting to kill millions of people. A bit more humour wouldn't go amiss either ( preferably not about the millions of dead people ).

 

I agree with previous posters that Arcuri & Grenfell etc. are potential lines of attack , and I would hammer the recent ISIS children / orphans response. Provide a vivid picture of a self-serving cabinet sitting there smugly deciding that their election campaign was more important than the fate of 60 children's lives and see how that flies.

 

As for Nick Robinson running the debate , the former president of the Oxford University Young Conservatives  , seems fair. He even has a wife called Pippa ffs.

 

[Rico1304]

21 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

I thought Corbyn was good on Marr. Far far better than Dominic Raab whose answer to immigration was we want to attract entrepreneurs, all they give a fuck about is profit.

Surely it is better to attract rich people?  

[Denny Crane]

21 minutes ago, Brownie said:

I know, that was part of my point about how the Tories massively fucked up in the last few weeks of their campaign. I can’t see them making the same mistakes again.

 

So it’s 6% now (will be higher in the next poll I reckon) versus 18% at an equivalent time in the last election.

 

My prediction is that it will get no better than 6%.

 

I'm gonna be chicken and wait another fortnight for things to settle down before I feel comfortable making a prediction as there are too many unknown factors. 

[sir roger]

1 minute ago, Rico1304 said:

Surely it is better to attract rich people?  

Aye , you have to beat them off with a stick when you advertise for crop-pickers , nursing staff and cleaners.

 

[Bobby Hundreds]

15 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

Surely it is better to attract rich people?  

They said on there today there's a huge shortage of nurses. We need immigration as much as we need trade. 

[Rico1304]

14 minutes ago, sir roger said:

Aye , you have to beat them off with a stick when you advertise for crop-pickers , nursing staff and cleaners.

 

4 day week and nice teeth? 

[Brownie]

19 minutes ago, Denny Crane said:

 

I'm gonna be chicken and wait another fortnight for things to settle down before I feel comfortable making a prediction as there are too many unknown factors. 

Fair enough, it’s a sensible approach mate as trying to predict what will happen in politics these days is a minefield. I just think that this one is more simplistic because of the fucking B word.

[aRdja]

3 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

They said on there today there's a huge shortage of nurses. We need immigration as much as we need trade. 

Anecdotal, but loads of British junior doctors are leaving too according to Mrs viRdjilia. 

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

Can ANYBODY see Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson being like this with a member of the public? 

 

Plus, respect for Corbyn slyly getting the Palestinian flag on CBBC. A point or two off for his pronunciation of scones, though. 

 

 

 

[sir roger]

5 minutes ago, Rico1304 said:

4 day week and nice teeth? 

You'd be spitting feathers if you got made to do 4 full days.

[Barrington Womble]

1 hour ago, viRdjil said:

I’ll watch it this evening and revert. I was just saying that him having a mare is far from the consensus from what I can see on my timeline on Twitter.

Maybe it's sometimes to do with expectations. If you read Twitter after the last election, you'd have been forgiven for thinking labour won. 

1 hour ago, MegadriveMan said:

 

I know loads, I know more people that support them than Labour.

 

The majority are Daily Mail and or S*n readers that believe all the shite they produce. Others are in the forces that don't like Corbyn because he doesn't believe in going to war/Trident etc.

 

I'd agree though that none of them get excited about the people or the policies the Tories have got on offer.

I find it quite mental how people in the forces want a government that wants to go to war. It is literally turkeys voting for Christmas. 

[aRdja]

6 minutes ago, Barry Wom said:

Maybe it's sometimes to do with expectations. If you read Twitter after the last election, you'd have been forgiven for thinking labour won. 

Maybe, but some would ask “does it matter?”. It’s the public who will vote, and in this instance surely it’s a positive that he performed better than public expectations.

[Megadrive Man]

3 minutes ago, Barry Wom said:

I find it quite mental how people in the forces want a government that wants to go to war. It is literally turkeys voting for Christmas. 

Its because they believe that sometimes only going to war can stop a war. It's the fighting Fire with Fire mentality. 

 

[Guest Pistonbroke]

9 minutes ago, Barry Wom said:

 

I find it quite mental how people in the forces want a government that wants to go to war. It is literally turkeys voting for Christmas. 

 

I can only speak for the time I spent in the forces and that what I gleam from friends who still serve. 

 

There are an awful lot of right leaning members in the forces and regardless of what you hear it was an extremely racist and homophobic environment to be in, although I do believe they are trying to stamp that out from a higher level these days. They are constantly fed a load of bullshit that a labour Gov't is bad for the overall forces budget, despite the Tories cutting back on stuff and equipment being outdated and sparse whenever they have been in power. The vast majority only read the headlines, which unfortunately paint Corbyn as some sort of terrorist sympathiser as we all know. They quite frequently complain about Soldiers being forgotten and mistreated post service time, yet forget that it is the present Gov't who don#t give a fuck unless they want to wheel out the Chelsea pensioners come poppy day. I find a lot of older veterans are far more savvy about things and lean towards labour, rather than their younger counterparts. 

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

Good. The Fib Dems need to learn that malicious lies can have consequences. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/labour-candidate-report-lib-dem-rival-police-grenfell-claim-emma-dent-coad-sam-gyimah

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

5 minutes ago, Pistonbroke said:

 

I can only speak for the time I spent in the forces and that what I gleam from friends who still serve. 

 

There are an awful lot of right leaning members in the forces and regardless of what you hear it was an extremely racist and homophobic environment to be in, although I do believe they are trying to stamp that out from a higher level these days. They are constantly fed a load of bullshit that a labour Gov't is bad for the overall forces budget, despite the Tories cutting back on stuff and equipment being outdated and sparse whenever they have been in power. The vast majority only read the headlines, which unfortunately paint Corbyn as some sort of terrorist sympathiser as we all know. They quite frequently complain about Soldiers being forgotten and mistreated post service time, yet forget that it is the present Gov't who don#t give a fuck unless they want to wheel out the Chelsea pensioners come poppy day. I find a lot of older veterans are far more savvy about things and lean towards labour, rather than their younger counterparts. 

On that, this was an eye opener.

 

https://youtu.be/zE1e4Z52vIw