General Election 2019

[Strontium]

12 minutes ago, viRdjil said:

I don’t understand why people lie when it’s very easy to just verify/debunk nowadays.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=Swinson (from%3Ajeremycorbyn)&src=typed_query

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=corbyn (from%3Ajoswinson)&src=typed_query&f=live

 

How cute that you think Labour use Jeremy Corbyn to get their message out.

 

Novara Media, Owen Jones, Rachael Swindon, and a whole bunch of other shills - these are the accounts you should be looking at.

[Denny Crane]

Tom Kibasi is too nice it's complete bullshit and totally disingenuous. I can't believe SD is defending that methodology it's laughable and I'm not surprised remainers are disappointed and will be having second thoughts about tactical voting with such unscrupulous measures being used. A blatant two horse race in Hendon as you will ever see. Lib Dems have been 30% points plus off in the last 6/7 races. Yet a tactical voting site is suggesting you vote Lib Dem. 

 

Anyway let's here from the former Lib Dem candidate who has seen the light not sure if it was the appointment of Swinson and the swing to the right  that made him leave but.. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[aRdja]

5 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

How cute that you think Labour use Jeremy Corbyn to get their message out.

 

Novara Media, Owen Jones, Rachael Swindon, and a whole bunch of other shills - these are the accounts you should be looking at.

The media attack Jo Swinson more than Corbyn now? Haha. I love you!

[Mudface]

28 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

The mistake that you, and many others, seem to be making, is that you are looking at the 2017 and 2015 results, and nothing else. Elections in which the Lib Dems hit historical lows that they have now recovered from.

 

Look at what happened in Haltemprice and Howden in 2010, or the 2019 European election. Those are better indicators than the outliers of 2015 and 2017.

 

Surely even the most biased individual can see that using elections in which the Lib Dems polled 7% as a baseline is a gross error when they are polling nearer 20%.

Yes, in 2010 they finished well over 20 points behind the Tories with barely half their vote (sadly, I was duped into voting for them in that election, never again). I don't think you can draw any conclusions from the 2019 European election, certainly not for an individual constituency on such a low turn out- if 2017 is considered an outlier, then the 2019 Euro elections certainly are. You'd need to go back to 2001 for an election where the Lib Dems had any sort of a chance.

 

Surely even the most biased Lib Dem can see that going from under 5% at the last election in H&H to challenging for the seat is wildly optimistic, and a website recommending you vote for them rather than Labour is disingenuous to say the least.

[Mudface]

And to add to that- why is the website not recommending any party for my constituency in Scotland? It's blatantly obvious that I should vote SNP here, they're more likely to prevent a Tory MP who's supported this government's Brexit getting in than Labour are, and the Lib Dems barely get 3% here.

 

General election 2017: Ochil and South Perthshire^[5][6][7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Luke Graham	22,469	41.5	20.8
	SNP	Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh	19,110	35.3	10.7
	Labour	Joanne Ross	10,847	20.0	8.4
	Liberal Democrats	Iliyan Stefanov	1,742	3.2	0.6
Majority			3,359	6.2	N/A
Turnout			54,168	70.6	4.2
	Conservative gain from SNP		Swing	15.8

[Jenson]

Tactical voting will be a must this election and it needs proper organising, if not at national level then definitely on the ground. Take Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park. He beat the Lib Dem candidate by 45 votes, while Labour, in a constituency they will never win, got nearly 6,000 votes. If it was up to me, Labour wouldn't even be putting up a candidate in that constituency (and vice versa for Tory/Lab marginals), but as that won't happen, then individual CLPs/associations have to be telling people door to door who should be getting their vote to get the Tories out/stop Brexit/second ref.

You can bet your fucking life that Johnson is desperately trying to come up with some arrangement with Farage. Lord Ashcroft was even suggesting bribing Farage and Tice off with peerages.

[Strontium]

Just now, Mudface said:

Yes, in 2010 they finished well over 20 points behind the Tories with barely half their vote (sadly, I was duped into voting for them in that election, never again). I don't think you can draw any conclusions from the 2019 European election, certainly not for an individual constituency on such a low turn out- if 2017 is considered an outlier, then the 2019 Euro elections certainly are. You'd need to go back to 2001 for an election where the Lib Dems had any sort of a chance.

 

Surely even the most biased Lib Dem can see that going from under 5% at the last election in H&H to challenging for the seat is wildly optimistic, and a website recommending you vote for them rather than Labour is disingenuous to say the least.

 

To be clear, I don't think that anyone other than the Tories are going to win in Haltemprice & Howden.

 

But the GetVoting tool can only make recommendations based on the candidates who are standing, and as of now, Labour has no candidate in Haltemprice & Howden.

 

And just to further disappoint the conspiracy theorists, GetVoting recommends that I vote Labour in my constituency.

[Guest Pistonbroke]

 

It's so obvious that those who stand to lose out should Corbyn become PM are shitting themselves and have used the Media platforms to belittle/attack him from every angle. I find it baffling that intelligent people who don't have much to gain/lose whichever party between lab/Lib do well deny it and swallow the shite they are served up for no other reason than party loyalty. 

[A Red]

1 hour ago, Pistonbroke said:

 

I'm not sure they know what they want themselves mate, well apart from bungs. The Tories paid them to jump into bed then threw them under a bus. 

How much were the DUP paid?

[Mudface]

26 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

 

To be clear, I don't think that anyone other than the Tories are going to win in Haltemprice & Howden.

 

But the GetVoting tool can only make recommendations based on the candidates who are standing, and as of now, Labour has no candidate in Haltemprice & Howden.

 

And just to further disappoint the conspiracy theorists, GetVoting recommends that I vote Labour in my constituency.

OK, it's not really what you posted earlier when you said that their model used more recent polling with higher figures for the Lib Dems, but fair enough, it's unreliable until all candidates have been chosen. And completely useless in Scotland it seems.

 

Is your own constituency Wallasey? Because that's an even safer Labour seat than H&H is for the Tories.

[A Red]

I thought Alan B'stard was Haltemprice MP

[Jenson]

8 minutes ago, A Red said:

How much were the DUP paid?

£1Billion I think

[Strontium]

2 minutes ago, Mudface said:

OK, it's not really what you posted earlier when you said that their model used more recent polling with higher figures for the Lib Dems, but fair enough, it's unreliable until all candidates have been chosen. And completely useless in Scotland it seems.

 

Is your own constituency Wallasey? Because that's an even safer Labour seat than H&H is for the Tories.

 

The earlier point was about using the 2015/7 elections as the key indicator for how people will vote this time around, I don't know what criteria the tactical voting sites use, but it seems clear that they will be weighted more highly towards the Lib Dems than the results from the last election taken on their own would suggest.

 

Quite frankly, nobody should use any tactical voting site as the sole basis for casting their vote. It seems pretty clear to me that a dedicated Remainer would be best voting SNP in Ochil and South Perthshire.

 

I do currently live in Wallasey, once upon a time a Lab/Con marginal.

[Bjornebye]

I assume you won't be gloating about any additional seats that have been won by default due to Brexit then Strontz? 

[Mudface]

2 minutes ago, Strontium Dog™ said:

I do currently live in Wallasey, once upon a time a Lab/Con marginal.

Aye, I was born there, in lovely Highfield Hospital. 

[A Red]

My auntie agnes lived down Clairemount Road if that helps

 

[A Red]

12 minutes ago, Jenson said:

£1Billion I think

Lets see what Pistonbroke thinks it is

[SasaS]

2 hours ago, viRdjil said:

To be fair, the truth is the other way around. You can’t stop Lib Dems politicians and voters from talking about Jeremy Corbyn. Compare Corbyn’s and Swinson’s twitter timelines if you don’t believe me.

I only get my UK politics on here. Reading the past few pages it felt like one in three posts was about the Lib Dems.

They seem to be in a good position now it this election remains as expected to a large extent about Brexit so it's hardly urprising they would use it as their main message and try to turn into an advantage over Labour.

 

[Guest Pistonbroke]

33 minutes ago, A Red said:

Lets see what Pistonbroke thinks it is

Let's see shall we. Well, I'm aware that the bung was for money for NI and its people, so you believe it went to the areas that needed it and none of it was skimmed off for certain Party purposes? 

[Strontium]

12 minutes ago, SasaS said:

I only get my UK politics on here. Reading the past few pages it felt like one in three posts was about the Lib Dems.

They seem to be in a good position now it this election remains as expected to a large extent about Brexit so it's hardly surprising they would use it as their main message and try to turn into an advantage over Labour.

Most Lib Dem target seats are currently held by the Conservatives, there's not as many which are expected to go Lab>LD (Sheffield Hallam and Cambridge, beyond that I don't know) so it makes sense that the Lib Dems would attempt to squeeze the Labour vote in the LD/Tory marginals. Getting those voters to switch is going to make a difference in those seats.

 

OTOH, Labour faces the biggest threat from their voters switching to the Conservatives, so you'd expect their efforts to be best spent on stemming that.

[A Red]

1 minute ago, Pistonbroke said:

Let's see shall we. Well, I'm aware that the bung was for money for NI and its people, so you believe it went to the areas that needed it and none of it was skimmed off for certain Party purposes? 

So despite saying it went to the DUP you know it went to the country. Do you have any evidence at all that any of the £1billion was skimmed off to the DUP?

 

 

[Guest Pistonbroke]

Just now, A Red said:

So despite saying it went to the DUP you know it went to the country. Do you have any evidence at all that any of the £1billion was skimmed off to the DUP?

 

 

 

Do you have any evidence that it wasn't? We are on about politicians here. Plus you know damn well that when people say bung it is a throw away comment, we all know that without that massive sweetener the Tory cunts wouldn't have been able to form an alliance. Being pedantic just adds to your qualities. 

[Mudface]

 

Not bad.

[aRdja]

Oh thanks for that Donald.

 

 

[A Red]

13 minutes ago, Pistonbroke said:

 

Do you have any evidence that it wasn't? We are on about politicians here. Plus you know damn well that when people say bung it is a throw away comment, we all know that without that massive sweetener the Tory cunts wouldn't have been able to form an alliance. Being pedantic just adds to your qualities. 

So that answers that then

 

You're just making shit up based on assumptions and have no fucking clue or evidence if money was skimmed.