Goals from outside the box

[an tha]

The Gerrard v Olympiakos moment replayed in 2020.

 

Time is running out - a goal is needed as Liverpool are playing Shaktar Donetsk at Anfield in the final group game - Liverpool push and push for the goal that will see them through to the knockout stages - nobody wants to wake up in the Europa League tomorrow....

 

The Reds attack down the left - Andy Robbo puts the ball across the box and it is knocked down by Bobby Firmino into the path of Jordan Henderson just outside the penalty area......Anfield holds its breath as Henderson runs onto it and hits in on the half volley....

 

Tony Moanero attending his first LFC game since 1988 sitting in Block 205 of the Kop has just opened up a packet of Chocolate Hobnobs and is about to dunk into his freshly poured from his Thermos cup of tea.....Hederson unleashes a rocket........

 

Tea is fucking everywhere and biscuits scattered all over the place, his Tartan blanket soaked and it is mayhem - but not in celebration, oh no....the ball has smashed straight into poor Tone and it's MTK Budapest next up at Anfield in the Europa and to make things worse The Asda on Breck Road is all out of Chocolate Hobnobs as he makes his way disconsolately home.

[The Woolster]

People are talking like we don't take shots from outside of the area. I don't have direct free kick info unfortunately, but we have taken 127 shots from outside of the area in the league this season out of 361. That is over 1/3 of our shots being from distance, so I don't think you can say we are predictable because we don't take any of these shots, as we clearly do.

 

"But we don't have anyone who is good at shooting from distance!" I hear you say. Well having a good shooter from distance doesn't actually move the needle that much. Lets take Coutinho as he has been mentioned a few times in the thread, he played for us, and I think we can probably all agree he is a good at shooting from distance. In his last season and a half with us he scored 5 open play goals from outside of the area from 50 games, so a goal every 10 games or roughly 3 or 4 a season, and whilst every goal counts, it is not loads (about 5% of what we as a team would expect to score in a given season). Those 4 goals would be worth a max of 8 points gained, but they would unlikely all be from games we win by 1, and they might possibly have no effect on the results and be worth zero. My guess would be 2 to 4 points gained. But you should also not take those 4 goals in isolation, you could say that if he didn't take those shots, how many goals would we have scored from retaining possession (I'll come back to this), or you could say that if someone else not as good at shooting took those shots, you would still expect them to score some goals, so the goals added is probably somewhat less than 4 goals a season, reducing the likely points gained even further.

 

The reason shooting from distance won't usually make a big difference is because hardly any of them are scored. Historically, roughly 3% of open play shots from outside of the area are scored, they are really inefficient. If you have someone who is good at shooting from distance, how much better do you expect them to be? Lets say they are 3x better, so they score from about 10% of these shots. Apart from very few exceptions, most players do not take more than 2 shots from outside of the area per match, if they score those 2 shots at the 10% rate, we get the 1 goal every 10 games that Coutinho managed, and like I said, this is not tipping the scales by much.

 

Of course every now and then a player/team will have a hot streak where they bang in a few more goals from distance, like Harry Wilson is having at the moment, but we would expect them to come back to more normal levels over a longer period. If we take Tottenham for instance, as mentioned above, they have got 10 goals from outside the area this season. In the whole of last season, they also scored 10 goals from outside the box. They did not buy any new players, and I very much doubt that the same players have become significantly better at long range shooting. So it is probably a combination of their shots from distance actually being that little bit easier this season, and some good fortune.

 

Interestingly, in the last few seasons there has been an increase in the amount of goals being scored, but a decrease in the amount of shots. The reason? As Premier League clubs have become more analytically savvy, they are reducing the amounts of shots they are taking from distance because they are so inefficient! Instead, they are keeping hold of the ball and creating higher quality chances and so scoring more goals. I don't have a subscrption, but there was an article in The Times just a few weeks ago on this very subject. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fewer-shots-but-more-goals-how-data-is-making-teams-more-efficient-l6srt0qsx

 

I think there is a mini review of that article here, but my access at work to the Talksport website is blocked. https://talksport.com/football/472334/premier-league-sides-scoring-more-goals-per-game-taking-fewer-shots/

 

I am not advocating not taking any shots from distance, for instance when the defence is disorganised like on a counter attack, or if it is a first/second touch shot where an attempt to get control of the ball has a good chance of the player being tackled, but in the vast majority of cases, it is the wrong option to take.

 

Would it be good if we had scored more goals from outside of the box that we have taken? Absolutely! But the reality is that to score more goals from distance, you have to take more shots form distance, and if you are taking more shots from distance, there is a good chance you will be scoring less goals in total.

[aws]

So you're saying Harry Wilson is shit, Wooly? 

[Trumo]

53 minutes ago, an tha said:

The Gerrard v Olympiakos moment replayed in 2020.

 

Time is running out - a goal is needed as Liverpool are playing Shaktar Donetsk at Anfield in the final group game - Liverpool push and push for the goal that will see them through to the knockout stages - nobody wants to wake up in the Europa League tomorrow....

 

The Reds attack down the left - Andy Robbo puts the ball across the box and it is knocked down by Bobby Firmino into the path of Jordan Henderson just outside the penalty area......Anfield holds its breath as Henderson runs onto it and hits in on the half volley....

 

Tony Moanero attending his first LFC game since 1988 sitting in Block 205 of the Kop has just opened up a packet of Chocolate Hobnobs and is about to dunk into his freshly poured from his Thermos cup of tea.....Hederson unleashes a rocket........

 

Tea is fucking everywhere and biscuits scattered all over the place, his Tartan blanket soaked and it is mayhem - but not in celebration, oh no....the ball has smashed straight into poor Tone and it's MTK Budapest next up at Anfield in the Europa and to make things worse The Asda on Breck Road is all out of Chocolate Hobnobs as he makes his way disconsolately home.

 

Tony really picks his moments doesn't he?!

[The Woolster]

Liverpool v Chelsea, 19 April 2019, Liverpool are 3 points ahead of City in the race for the title, but behind on goal difference. It is 0-0 coming towards the end of the first half, Robertson plays a simple ball to Henderson, but Henderson slips! Higuain gets the ball and has a 1v1 with Alison and slots it into the bottom corner.

 

Klopp gets the team together at half time and reminds them that they are playing well and to stay patient, he reminds them of the last time this happened when we took 15 shots from outside the area in the 2nd half, and tells them not to lose their heads. The team do stay patient, Henderson has 8 opportunities to shoot from distance, just like Gerrard took back in 2014, but instead he passes the ball sideways. From one of these sideways passes Milner plays a through ball to Firmino who has made a sneaky run into the box behind a defender, he passes across the box for Salah to score a tap in equaliser.  

 

Liverpool win their remaining games and beat City in the league by 1 point. When Tony Moanero checks flashscores on the last day of the season and sees we have won the league, he drops his mug of tea, and vows that he will never miss another game.

 

 

[Remmie]

1 hour ago, Trumo said:

 

All our goals minus 4.

What about goals that don't really count like pace goals, penalties and deflections? 

[The Woolster]

32 minutes ago, aws said:

So you're saying Harry Wilson is shit, Wooly? 

 

I've been advocating Wilson for years, he is brilliant, but have often heard how he hadn't done it at first team level, or he was too lightweight, or that players that go off on loan never make it, so I am somewhat amused now that he's now being talked about by everyone having scored some worldies from outside the area which are in all likelihood unsustainable, so that comment may have been a point about what we might expect in the future...

[an tha]

13 minutes ago, The Woolster said:

Liverpool v Chelsea, 19 April 2019, Liverpool are 3 points ahead of City in the race for the title, but behind on goal difference. It is 0-0 coming towards the end of the first half, Robertson plays a simple ball to Henderson, but Henderson slips! Higuain gets the ball and has a 1v1 with Alison and slots it into the bottom corner.

 

Klopp gets the team together at half time and reminds them that they are playing well and to stay patient, he reminds them of the last time this happened when we took 15 shots from outside the area in the 2nd half, and tells them not to lose their heads. The team do stay patient, Henderson has 8 opportunities to shoot from distance, just like Gerrard took back in 2014, but instead he passes the ball sideways. From one of these sideways passes Milner plays a through ball to Firmino who has made a sneaky run into the box behind a defender, he passes across the box for Salah to score a tap in equaliser.  

 

Liverpool win their remaining games and beat City in the league by 1 point. When Tony Moanero checks flashscores on the last day of the season and sees we have won the league, he drops his mug of tea, and vows that he will never miss another game.

 

 

Ha...fair do's, Wool...

 

The point is joking aside that there is room for both and always has been.

 

Piledrivers like Stevie scored frigging loads of or tap ins - the thing is doing the right thing in the right moment.

 

Stevies 2006 cup final piledriver for example or any one of the loads of times he slotted in someone for a tap in - all as valid and important as each other.

[The Woolster]

Both his goals against Olympiakos and West Ham were the type of shot from distance that I mentioned that I think is ok to take on, first or 2nd touch, bouncing ball, clearance from a cross, not easy to get control of the ball type situations.

 

Its about making the right decision at that point, and most of the time, the right decision is to not shoot.

[Remmie]

I always felt Garcia shouldn't have taken this shot as it had a low chance of going in:

 

 

He should've taken a touch and then placed it. Luckily Luis knew better. 

[aws]

2 minutes ago, The Woolster said:

Both his goals against Olympiakos and West Ham were the type of shot from distance that I mentioned that I think is ok to take on, first or 2nd touch, bouncing ball, clearance from a cross, not easy to get control of the ball type situations.

 

Its about making the right decision at that point, and most of the time, the right decision is to not shoot.

Agreed. But if a player has a reputation for scoring the occasional screamer he often attracts an additional defender as he gets near the box opening up space for somebody else. Except for Shaqiri I can't see an extra defender making an effort to close down any of our midfielders on the basis they might score. 

[The Woolster]

Realised I've been saying this shit for years... this is so old the tables don't exist anymore

 

https://eplindex.com/27523/spurs-continue-baled-chase-champions-league.html

 

Spurs finished 5th that season btw, just sayin...

[Trumo]

10 minutes ago, Remmie said:

I always felt Garcia shouldn't have taken this shot as it had a low chance of going in:

 

 

He should've taken a touch and then placed it. Luckily Luis knew better. 

 

Nah, sometimes the ball sits up in a way that is begging to be hit first time like that one was. After that, it's all about making the right contact.

[The Woolster]

10 minutes ago, aws said:

Agreed. But if a player has a reputation for scoring the occasional screamer he often attracts an additional defender as he gets near the box opening up space for somebody else. Except for Shaqiri I can't see an extra defender making an effort to close down any of our midfielders on the basis they might score. 

 

I dunno, I reckon teams that park the bus like the Burnley's of this world would be happy to let them shoot with a less than 5% chance of it going in because they have so many bodies in the way. I think they'd be more concerned with coming out to block a shot that is faked and some space being created where that player was and a better opportunity being created.

[VladimirIlyich]

59 minutes ago, Remmie said:

What about goals that don't really count like pace goals, penalties and deflections? 

SteveO is that you?

[an tha]

Shots from outside box.

 

Cunts took on two tonight that were poor efforts and one led to a keeper making a howler and dropping ball at Lukaku's feet for a tap in and then the other a penalty for 'handball"

 

Low percentage as they come those efforts but turned up trumps for them...we really need to take a few more on especially on days like last Sunday.

 

[TheHowieLama]

You got your own font there fella - nice

[an tha]

1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

You got your own font there fella - nice

All looks same on me mobile.

 

 

[TheHowieLama]

You've lost it on this last one -- I think I like the previous one better, was a little smaller

 

Anyway, agree we should have a few more tries from outside

[an tha]

1 minute ago, TheHowieLama said:

You've lost it on this last one -- I think I like the previous one better, was a little smaller

 

Anyway, agree we should have a few more tries from outside

Deffo....if nothing else it might smash a few ipads and selfie sticks in the kop!