Chase for the top 4

[Lee909]

Sevilla have Sociedad and Madrid next so could drop points

 

Id fancy us over either Sevilla or Ajax and any of the Russian clubs over two legs. Napoli would be tough and Dortmund a nightmare

[Lee909]

Spurs have an unbeaten home record to defend, They won't roll over for the Mancs or Mourihno

Yeah but look at last year. Once the title was not winnable they collapsed

[Rorschach08]

Spurs have an unbeaten home record to defend, They won't roll over for the Mancs or Mourihno 

Last game at White Hart Lane as well isn't it?  They'll be well up for it,

[The Golden Eel]

Yeah but look at last year. Once the title was not winnable they collapsed

That's exactly why I don't think they'll do the same again

[G Richards]

Three wins and we've a great chance of finishing third. That has to be the focus. If we finish fourth and get a tough draw, its not great, but so be it. Much better to be in there with a chance, than on the outside and not even competing, which is where we've been more years than not, of late. 

[ZonkoVille77]

We're fucking shite at qualifying.

[Rick Sanchez C-137]

We're fucking shite

[Jenson]

The pessimism in this thread is off the chart.

 

Last week it was "we won't beat Watford never mind all 4 games and none of Utd, City or Arsenal are going to drop any points whatsover." Fast forward to this week, after we won and the other 3 all dropped points, and it's "we're definitely not going to win our last three and I can't see anyone else dropping any more points at all."

 

I hope it's all reverse psychology.

[TheHowieLama]

So this is back on?

[Rick Sanchez C-137]

Can we still get relegated?

[aRdja]

Can someone sum this up for me?

[Oh Buoy]

I support Pessimism F. C. not Liverpool F. C.

[El Rojo]

Can someone sum this up for me?

 

We're replacing fears that we won't get top four with fears of who we'll play in the qualifier if we do, which will be followed by fears of who we'll face in the group stages, which will be followed by fears of who we'll play in the second round, quarter final, semi-final and final and ultimately which away shirt we'll be forced to win the trophy in and whether or not the open-topped bus will take the right route.

[Rick Sanchez C-137]

3rd = great

4th = good

5th = shite

[ZonkoVille77]

3rd = great

4th = good

5th = we're fuckin shite

Fixed that for you.

[Ne Moe Imya]

Can someone sum this up for me?

 

Currently @PenaltyKickStat has it like this:

 

 

Short version: we have a 51% chance of finishing 3rd, a 38% chance of finishing 4th, and a 10% chance of finishing outside the top 4 (minor rounding error).

[Ne Moe Imya]

For comparison, @cchappas has it like this:

 

He has us at 65% chance for 3rd, 29% chance for 4th, and 6% chance of missing out on top four.

 

Different algorithms will rank differently, but all of them are pretty close to these two.  We have around a 90% chance of top 4 at this point, not quite enough to say we're certs but if we beat Southampton you'd say that would just about do it.

 

Realistically, we probably need 2 wins from 3 for third place, or 3-4 points from the last 3 games for fourth.  No guarantees, of course, with those results, as it's possible United and City win every game they have left, but you'd be pretty confident that I'd be right.

[Ne Moe Imya]

I just found this that breaks down our odds of finishing in every position for every possible points total we can get.  Shouldn't be too hard to figure out, but just in case, if you look at the left you can see a potential points total and then follow the line across to see our odds of every finish with that total.

 

So, if we finish with a win, a draw, and a loss in our last 3 on 73 points, we would have a 25% chance at finishing third and a 53% chance of finishing fourth, for a combined total of 77.9% odds of a top four finish.  And so on.

 

 

This is courtesy of @BassTunedToRed off twitter, by the way, not my own work.

[aRdja]

For comparison, @cchappas has it like this:

 

He has us at 65% chance for 3rd, 29% chance for 4th, and 6% chance of missing out on top four.

 

Different algorithms will rank differently, but all of them are pretty close to these two. We have around a 90-95% chance of top 4 at this point, not quite enough to say we're certs but if we beat Southampton you'd say that would just about do it.

 

Realistically, we probably need 2 wins from 3 for third place, or 3-4 points from the last 3 games for fourth. No guarantees, of course, with those results, as it's possible United and City win every game they have left, but you'd be pretty confident that I'd be right.

I know who to blame when Arsenal and/or United pip us then. Thanks.

[magicrat]

We will get top 4 now in all probability , The question now is not who we will face in this or that group or qualifier its what sort of squad are we going to have come the start of the new season, If we go into the CL with this squad and also expect us to fight on all the other fronts the season will be a rail crash, We can barely put together a credible subs bench now and that's with just the league to focus on . Massive question marks about the club's ambition and ability to recruit 4 or 5 top class additions amongst them being a decent striker which alone is hard enough these days. Achieving top 4 is great but its pointless if we end up back in 7th next season with fuck all to put in the trophy cabinet, 

[G Richards]

Thanks Ne Moe Imya for the very interesting statistical analysis above. Repped. I like some depth behind the guess work that most of us go in for, and this provides it. 

 

I was thinking three wins and we should finish third; but the data above shows that two wins and a draw has a good chance too, and two wins and a loss still has a 60% chance of third. 

 

Pretty encouraged by that. 

 

Middlesborough on the last day really should be a win, as they will be down by then. Still, you can never say for sure, and we have to turn up. Southampton are hard to break down for us, so that's a tricky game. West Ham could turn up and make it very difficult for us, especially as Bilic seems to be on notice there. But then again, they might have mentally checked out for the season and it could be straightforward. Hard to say which Hammers we'll get.  

[TheHowieLama]

Its back on bitches!!!!!

[KevieG]

We'll fall over this line despite our bunch of shithouse players yet

[TheHowieLama]

When we do it will just make me them more.

[clangers]

It's looking like who wants to finish 4th the least.

 

Arsenal now have two potentially difficult away games this week, let's see if they can pick up 6 points? If they don't we might not need to beat West Ham which is useful as we probably won't.