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Summer 2017 Transfer Thread

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Interesting article on using data to assess a goalie's performance

 

https://2plus2equals11.com/2017/07/07/thinking-about-goalkeepers/amp/

 

33137c9eaf2f041dbbe4167214991a40.png

 

#AnnounceHeaton

That plagiarising bastard definetly reads this forum, he stole my idea*

 

From his blog

 

"To investigate some of these issues, I’ve built an expected save model that takes into account shot location and angle, whether the shot is a header or not and shot placement. So a shot taken centrally in the penalty area sailing into the top-corner will be unlikely to be saved, while a long-range shot straight at the keeper in the centre of goal should usually prove easier to handle."

 

Karius thread in december.

 

I'm not the one basing everything on a single statistic.

 

At the very least I'd be looking at how the goals were scored, from where and the destination of the shot.

 

Like I said beforenot all shots are created equally so as much emphasis would need to be placed on the shot itself as the goal.

 

If you drew a grid over the mouth of the goal (say 3 across 2 down for simplicity) then the 2 boxes either side of the goal would have a lower save possibility than the 2 centre boxes (the more complex the grid the greater the change in weighting and accuracy).

 

Likewise if you drew a grid across the penalty area you could assign a weighting to the likely hood of a goal being scored (further back or further to the sides would have a lower weighting chance than those dead centre there are a few different concepts floating around on this and the rest of what I'm saying), you'd have to account for other factors but let's keep it simple.

 

 

Now you'd expect a shot from further back or to the side going to the centre of the goal to have a lower chance of scoring and a higher chance of being saved than a shot from central going into the top corner.

 

If you then plotted each goal scored against a keeper or keepers you would, in theory, have a far more accurate representation of your shots to saves statistic.

 

Obviously the above doesn't account for things like deflections but it's a start.

*that I may have stolen from elsewhere

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Every single big team in the Premier League is shit at transfers, which is why despite the obscene riches of the league, no team has achieved anything of note in the CL this decade besides an incredible fluke.

 

Manchester City being the shining beacons in this regard.

 

Unlimited wealth and a fancy manager, yet they can't even attract the very best players in England, let alone those in other leagues. 

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* Hand starts to shake *

* Sweat beads form on brow *

 

... need a signing. Must have a top player in through the door asap...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loving the summer composure on here!

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Who was our last next level signing ? Torres ? I know Suarez turned out world class but there was no great fanfare when we got him and Mascherano came from west ham where he wasn't even playing much. The club seems scared to take that 'next step'.

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If only we could boil everything in football down to the most inane yes and no response and pretend it wasn't more nuanced things would be far more simple.

 

But to make people feel better about themselves lets go with no.

 

Nothing wrong with a yes/no question and response.  It cuts through all the muddle.

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So you dont think suarez, coutinho, lallana, matip, mane, firmino, salah, wijnaldum, sakho, lovren, clyne, milner and the like dont count as a good track record?

 

No, that's you cherry picking all the successful signings and ignoring everything else. 

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My answer is no. A question in return, do you think FSG should pick the targets or should they let the manager and his team choose?

 

They should let the manager and his team choose.  Our way is far too rigid.

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Nothing wrong with a yes/no question and response. It cuts through all the muddle.

Detail and context are important.

 

I don't think we're exceptionally bad or good and the detail would probably point fo the fact that in relation to other clubs we're not doing anything exceptional either way.

 

But yes or no definitely conveys that....

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No, that's you cherry picking all the successful signings and ignoring everything else.

Is that different to cherry picking the non-succesful ones that goes on here every single day?

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They should let the manager and his team choose. Our way is far too rigid.

Our way is virtually identical to how most clubs (without a specific sporting director/DoF) do it.

 

More so with Klopp having more power.

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Our way is virtually identical to how most clubs (without a specific sporting director/DoF) do it.

 

More so with Klopp having more power.

 

Our way is bollocks.

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How so, I think everyone would benefit from a little perspective on here.

 

Yeah, like I'm going to answer that and get drawn further into this nonsense.  

 

It's interesting to note that you spend a supreme amount of time and effort defending FSG's approach to transfers yet when pressed don't think they have a good track record in this respect.

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Our way is virtually identical to how most clubs (without a specific sporting director/DoF) do it.

 

More so with Klopp having more power.

Really? Can't remember grovelling apologies from any other clubs, embarrassing climb downs or leaving so many players out on a limb when they've stated that they want to sign for you.

 

Big clubs act like big clubs.

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Yeah, like I'm going to answer that and get drawn further into this nonsense.

 

It's interesting to note that you spend a supreme amount of time and effort defending FSG's approach to transfers yet when pressed don't think they have a good track record in this respect.

A) not defending FSG defending the mechanics of transfers and how it applies across the board.

 

B ) playing to the mob, as I said given you don't like detail then agreeing with you and others was the easiest option especially when the answer is neither flat yes or a flat no as a Yes would have had people descending into madness.

 

The best thing about all of this is it isn't the detail people don't like it's the detail when it's perceived to be defending the club.

 

When it's neutral or in reference to whats happening at another club people have far less of an issue with it but god help anyone who says exactly the same in relation to us.

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Really? Can't remember grovelling apologies from any other clubs, embarrassing climb downs or leaving so many players out on a limb when they've stated that they want to sign for you.

 

Big clubs act like big clubs.

If thats what we were talking about the answer may have been different.

 

But I agree we should act more like the big clubs, maybe take our lead from the Barcelona's and Madrids on how we should conduct ourselves.

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If thats what we were talking about the answer may have been different.

 

But I agree we should act more like the big clubs, maybe take our lead from the Bar elonas and Madrids on how we should conduct ourselves.

No.

 

What I would like is to do is enter into constructive negotiations with clubs instead of pissing them off.

 

If a player then doesn't come for whatever reason then fine.

 

However, what we seem to do is leak information in an attempt to push the price down - thus pissing the selling team off and putting the player in a bad position of having to push for a move which might not happen and then be left with a bad taste in the mouth from their club and fans.

 

Before you say that the leaks could have come from anywhere - consider the 2 embarrassing as apologies from this club!!!!

 

FSG think they are ahead of a curve that nobody else is on and that they are cleverer than they are.

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No.

 

What I would like is to do is enter into constructive negotiations with clubs instead of pissing them off.

 

If a player then doesn't come for whatever reason then fine.

 

However, what we seem to do is leak information in an attempt to push the price down - thus pissing the selling team off and putting the player in a bad position of having to push for a move which might not happen and then be left with a bad taste in the mouth from their club and fans.

 

Before you say that the leaks could have come from anywhere - consider the 2 embarrassing as apologies from this club!!!!

 

FSG think they are ahead of a curve that nobody else is on and that they are cleverer than they are.

 

Spot on that.

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No.

 

What I would like is to do is enter into constructive negotiations with clubs instead of pissing them off.

 

If a player then doesn't come for whatever reason then fine.

 

However, what we seem to do is leak information in an attempt to push the price down - thus pissing the selling team off and putting the player in a bad position of having to push for a move which might not happen and then be left with a bad taste in the mouth from their club and fans.

 

Before you say that the leaks could have come from anywhere - consider the 2 embarrassing as apologies from this club!!!!

 

FSG think they are ahead of a curve that nobody else is on and that they are cleverer than they are.

It would be right to aspire to a position where a club submits a formal bid for a player and, once given permission to speak to him, then agree terms.

 

It would be wrong to assume we're an outlier in the way the system currently works with the players interest tested before the clubs.

 

People hang off every word Paul Joyce says then slag off the club for leaking the information to him yet, in his own words, the majority of the information on Keita, as an example, is coming from abroad. Infact I believe he said very little is cominv from the club at the moment, Van Dijk was obviously different.

 

We say the club should shut up shop then complain that the absence of information is proof of the absence of work being done.

 

We criticise the club and say how disgraceful it is that we've tapped up a player and how our best players would be well within their rights to want a move to a less morally dubious club then try to ship them off to Barcelona without a hint of irony.

 

We judge the efficency of other clubs signings by the day they're signed and ours from the day they're first mooted as a target all while ignoring the endless headlines and assuming we should just put the money on the table like they do.

 

It's an endless stream of contradictions and willful ignorance to whats going on around us, we don't exist in a bubble, we aren't leaving players in limbo and jeopardising their futures, it isn't the most embarrasing thing to ever happen to a club, we're just going the the messy process of transfers the same as everyone else to varying degrees of success.

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It would be right to aspire to a position where a club submits a formal bid for a player and, once given permission to speak to him, then agree terms.

It would be wrong to assume we're an outlier in the way the system currently works with the players interest tested before the clubs.

People hang off every word Paul Joyce says then slag off the club for leaking the information to him yet, in his own words, the majority of the information on Keita, as an example, is coming from abroad. Infact I believe he said very little is cominv from the club at the moment, Van Dijk was obviously different.

We say the club should shut up shop then complain that the absence of information is proof of the absence of work being done.

We criticise the club and say how disgraceful it is that we've tapped up a player and how our best players would be well within their rights to want a move to a less morally dubious club then try to ship them off to Barcelona without a hint of irony.

We judge the efficency of other clubs signings by the day they're signed and ours from the day they're first mooted as a target all while ignoring the endless headlines and assuming we should just put the money on the table like they do.

It's an endless stream of contradictions and willful ignorance to whats going on around us, we don't exist in a bubble, we aren't leaving players in limbo and jeopardising their futures, it isn't the most embarrasing thing to ever happen to a club, we're just going the the messy process of transfers the same as everyone else to varying degrees of success.

 

Give it a rest Cardie they need to spend big and make a statement, we are in the CL act like a club with ambition and back the manager and keep the fans happy that's what they're there for,they take enough money off the supporters each season and the club have the money to do it ,no excuses they have this window to do it so get on with it.

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