Should Corbyn remain as Labour leader?

[Section_31]

Been reading Orwell's autobiography and he slags off the Labour party a bit but sees them as the best of a bad bunch. He says they're socialist in name only but have no real desire to see the end of capitalism because they draw their power from the unions, many of whose members could lose their jobs in such a scenario, and that they're content largely to be in permanent opposition as a force merely for agitation.

 

He talks about how the smaller socialist parties are hopeless because they agitate against the middle classes when they should be trying to get them aboard, but instead end up driving them into the arms of the Tories through fear. 

 

Deffo still a lot of truth in all that today.

[moof]

23 minutes ago, Barry Wom said:

But Corbyn will not get elected. That is the absolute reality of the situation. Our Rebecca might, gardener or Starmer. But Corbyn just will not win a GE. And when he loses we get 5 years of Hunt or Boris and that would be an absolute disaster and it seems likely that cunt Johnson is an almost certainty to win their leadership contest. For me it's very much anyone but Johnson, I just can't contemplate him as prime minister. He's going to get his foot in the door this week, but with any luck brexit will force him to a GE before the year is out. Labour have to be ready to win when that happens. Right now we don't even know if labour will campaign on staying in or leaving the EU in that GE. That's the mess we're in. 

Obviously, I disagree. I don’t think the Conservative party wins a general election against a Corbyn led Labour in the current climate. 

[Numero Veinticinco]

Just now, moof said:

Obviously, I disagree. I don’t think the Conservative party wins a general election against a Corbyn led Labour in the current climate. 

Ah, but do you think Corbyn wins a general election against the Tories? I mean, they didn't win the last one, but they're in power. Corbyn winning a majority... I just can't see it. I just can't. 

[moof]

2 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Ah, but do you think Corbyn wins a general election against the Tories? I mean, they didn't win the last one, but they're in power. Corbyn winning a majority... I just can't see it. I just can't. 

He probably won’t be allowed, but we have to try. 

[moof]

I take that back. Yes, I think he can 

[Jairzinho]

I have absolutely no fucking idea what would happen in a general election.

[moof]

Given that they’re ahead in most polls after 4 years of constant smears, and at the last election he won the biggest swing to labour since 1945, you’d have to think there’s a reasonable chance with election reporting, hugely popular and needed policies, and the detritus he’s up against. 

[Numero Veinticinco]

Just now, moof said:

He probably won’t be allowed, but we have to try. 

I think we are going to spend another four or five years minimum under Tory control. I also think we have to deal with the facts. He's very unpopular, he has been unable to win over anybody in the media and - even if it's completely unfair - the fact is that he has everything against him and it is likely to result in a Tory government. If he can't win an election, why is he there? Surely to God we would prefer a Starmer-led government than a Tory government. Hell, surely we would prefer a Blair/Brown government to a Tory government. Hanging on to the slim hope that something miraculous happens with Corbyn, with the much greater likelihood of an extension to Tory rule is, in my opinion, entirely self defeating. 

[Numero Veinticinco]

Just now, moof said:

I take that back. Yes, I think he can 

In which case, I disagree. He's miles from winning a majority or even being able to do a deal to be PM. Just my view, nobody knows for sure. That's why we have elections. It's why we have to talk in probables. I think it's probable that we will end with more Tory rule. I am not a fan. Not a fan at all.

[moof]

2 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

I think we are going to spend another four or five years minimum under Tory control. I also think we have to deal with the facts. He's very unpopular, he has been unable to win over anybody in the media and - even if it's completely unfair - the fact is that he has everything against him and it is likely to result in a Tory government. If he can't win an election, why is he there? Surely to God we would prefer a Starmer-led government than a Tory government. Hell, surely we would prefer a Blair/Brown government to a Tory government. Hanging on to the slim hope that something miraculous happens with Corbyn, with the much greater likelihood of an extension to Tory rule is, in my opinion, entirely self defeating. 

I have no idea how you’re calculating this apparent “much greater likelihood”

[Numero Veinticinco]

Just now, moof said:

I have no idea how you’re calculating this apparent “much greater likelihood”

Mostly from the following. 

 

1) Knowledge of how the media acts at election time

2) history of his ability to win the election

3) what has happened to his popularity since his lost the last election

4) knowledge of the constituencies that Labour is likely to struggling in 

5) the importance of those constituencies in winning an election. 

6) gut feeling

 

It's just my opinion, and it's based on my knowledge and judgement of thing - it's certainly not a fact. I'd be interested in hearing how you think he is going to win an election though. I would - I hope it's obvious - much prefer Corbyn than Boris and the boys. 

[Jairzinho]

1 minute ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Mostly from the following. 

 

1) Knowledge of how the media acts at election time

2) history of his ability to win the election

3) what has happened to his popularity since his lost the last election

4) knowledge of the constituencies that Labour is likely to struggling in 

5) the importance of those constituencies in winning an election. 

6) gut feeling

 

It's just my opinion, and it's based on my knowledge and judgement of thing - it's certainly not a fact. I'd be interested in hearing how you think he is going to win an election though. I would - I hope it's obvious - much prefer Corbyn than Boris and the boys. 

Agree, or rather similarly concerned with 3, 4 and 5. 

 

With 1, I think he did well in the run up to the election because the prism of the media was thinned. I've no doubt they'll go even harder than last time. I'm fully expecting the Guardian to say they have conclusive proof that he's a nonce.

 

I think 2 is harsh, he did considerably better than most people expected. Wasn't it about three million more than Blair in 2005? And, also I'm not sure that the last election will be much of an indicator. I think your fourth and fifth points are the key with the influence of pro remainers switching to Green or Lib Dem, and pro leavers switching the the Brexit gimps.

 

No-one is getting a majority. I don't think a Starmer lead Labour does either.

 

Terrifying prospect the next election. 

 

 

[Numero Veinticinco]

17 minutes ago, Jairzinho said:

Agree, or rather similarly concerned with 3, 4 and 5. 

 

With 1, I think he did well in the run up to the election because the prism of the media was thinned. I've no doubt they'll go even harder than last time. I'm fully expecting the Guardian to say they have conclusive proof that he's a nonce.

 

I think 2 is harsh, he did considerably better than most people expected. Wasn't it about three million more than Blair in 2005? And, also I'm not sure that the last election will be much of an indicator. I think your fourth and fifth points are the key with the influence of pro remainers switching to Green or Lib Dem, and pro leavers switching the the Brexit gimps.

 

No-one is getting a majority. I don't think a Starmer lead Labour does either.

 

Terrifying prospect the next election. 

 

 

Politics in this country, and I can only put this in the most academic of terms, needs kicking in the bastard. Immediately. It's, to quote a 17th century philosopher, completely fucking fucked and needs blasting with piss. 

[Jairzinho]

3 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Politics in this country, and I can only put this in the most academic of terms, needs kicking in the bastard. Immediately. It's, to quote a 17th century philosopher, completely fucking fucked and needs blasting with piss. 

I do like 17th century philosophy. None more so Gottfried Liebniz who invented the concept of chocolate biscuits.

[sir roger]

I can't understand anybody who says that Corbyn cannot win an election.

 

I am not saying that he will, but there are so many variables and the political situation is so volatile, that any certainties seem ridiculous. We don't even know when the GE will be within a 2-year period & have no idea who the opposition leader he would be facing will be. I understand the media will continue to be negative , but they were in the last one and he did pretty well then when they had to abide by the rules for once in the run-up. 

[Jairzinho]

I think pretty much every single constituency is going to see some of the oddest results of all time. 

[sir roger]

I couldn't believe some of the results last time, and I think the next time will be even more odd.

[Barrington Womble]

11 hours ago, sir roger said:

I can't understand anybody who says that Corbyn cannot win an election.

 

I am not saying that he will, but there are so many variables and the political situation is so volatile, that any certainties seem ridiculous. We don't even know when the GE will be within a 2-year period & have no idea who the opposition leader he would be facing will be. I understand the media will continue to be negative , but they were in the last one and he did pretty well then when they had to abide by the rules for once in the run-up. 

We're in a period of political uncertainty that there could be an election at litterally anytime. This government might not even see out the summer. Labour have to be ready. I don't care when the election is, Corbyn has no chance. He can't run the labour party, he has no fucking chance of holding the party together through an election campaign where he'll be slaughtered from all sides. It doesn't matter if idealogically if he's the right person, he's just got no chance of winning enough seats to win an election. 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

12 hours ago, sir roger said:

I couldn't believe some of the results last time, and I think the next time will be even more odd.

I think a lot of the current gloom stems from the rise of the Brexit Party.  The thing is, I don't see them getting enough votes in any given constituency to win any seats and where they significantly split the vote, I think they'll hurt the Tories more than Labour. 

 

I've no idea how the Lib Dems, Plaid or the SNP would get on in an election, but I think they're more likely to be the kingmakers (in the event of no overall control) than Farridge. 

 

Of course, I could be utterly wrong. 

[Nelly-Szoboszlai]

Just got a Labour email through from Jezza about the launch of an antisemitism education mini-site to help people understand what might be an antisemitic comment and what to do if they spot such conduct. 

 

Mixed emotions. It can help. As I've said before, education is sometimes as helpful as suspension and official sanction, depending on the context of any potentially antisemitic comments. 

 

But.... 

 

You know that this will be criticised by the usual suspects. They'll find some way to have a dig over it. Plus, given the miniscule proportion of Labour Party members who have been found to be antisemitic, is such a website necessary? Will it be falsely spun as the party acknowledging that there is an "institutionally antisemitic" problem within the party? 

 

Keep an eye on the Gnasher/Oberman/Riley response... 

[sir roger]

56 minutes ago, Barry Wom said:

We're in a period of political uncertainty that there could be an election at litterally anytime. This government might not even see out the summer. Labour have to be ready. I don't care when the election is, Corbyn has no chance. He can't run the labour party, he has no fucking chance of holding the party together through an election campaign where he'll be slaughtered from all sides. It doesn't matter if idealogically if he's the right person, he's just got no chance of winning enough seats to win an election. 

As I say Barry , you may be right , but I am baffled as to how sure you are about this as the polling industry invests millions of pounds into analysis and hardware to try to come up with answers and still have massive variances in what they think will happen. Your certainty appears to be totally based on what you and your mates think and the noise coming from the old right wing and their media chums.

 

He can't run the labour party, he has no fucking chance of holding the party together through an election campaign where he'll be slaughtered from all sides.

 

Corbyn managed nearly 13m votes and a 40% share in 2017 despite having very little time to get settled into the job and the campaign being run by a Head Office that didn't really want him to win and pumped all the resources into their political friends' constituencies. If you watched the Panorama documentary , just take on board that the 2017 Corbyn campaign was  run by those people who appeared on there. He now has control of Head Office via Formby et al and has a workable majority on the NEC ( not a bad effort in 3 years for somebody who can't run the party )  , so I think any GE campaign will be better focused and slicker at getting the message across. He will also have the advantage of having a far better manifesto that any of the other parties as although not being mentioned by MSM he runs the only party that appear to have any actual popular policies.

 

Added to this the television media are forced by law to maintain impartiality once the election has been called & Corbyn made massive strides last time once their bias was negated somewhat. The PLP issues will also lessen in the run-up as some of the worst aggressors will have been trigger balloted out & the ones who are standing will have to concentrate on their own constituencies. 

 

Don't get me wrong there are big issues to solve such as Scotland , and unknowns such as the Brexit situation at the time of the election , but to suggest he has no chance of winning is ridiculous.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

35 minutes ago, Nelly-Torres said:

 

You know that this will be criticised by the usual suspects. They'll find some way to have a dig over it. Plus, given the miniscule proportion of Labour Party members who have been found to be antisemitic, is such a website necessary? Will it be falsely spun as the party acknowledging that there is an "institutionally antisemitic" problem within the party? 

 

Keep an eye on the Gnasher/Oberman/Riley response... 

Fuck 'em. Right-wing liars will continue to attack people who  oppose racism and austerity at home and Apartheid abroad. The gobshites will never be satisfied and are best ignored. 

 

This is a positive step that could and should have been taken ages ago, but the genuine attempts to fight anti-Semitism have been deflected and thwarted by cunts like Hodge, Mann, Watson, etc.

 

https://labour.org.uk/no-place-for-antisemitism/

 

[Barrington Womble]

30 minutes ago, sir roger said:

As I say Barry , you may be right , but I am baffled as to how sure you are about this as the polling industry invests millions of pounds into analysis and hardware to try to come up with answers and still have massive variances in what they think will happen. Your certainty appears to be totally based on what you and your mates think and the noise coming from the old right wing and their media chums.

 

He can't run the labour party, he has no fucking chance of holding the party together through an election campaign where he'll be slaughtered from all sides.

 

Corbyn managed nearly 13m votes and a 40% share in 2017 despite having very little time to get settled into the job and the campaign being run by a Head Office that didn't really want him to win and pumped all the resources into their political friends' constituencies. If you watched the Panorama documentary , just take on board that the 2017 Corbyn campaign was  run by those people who appeared on there. He now has control of Head Office via Formby et al and has a workable majority on the NEC ( not a bad effort in 3 years for somebody who can't run the party )  , so I think any GE campaign will be better focused and slicker at getting the message across. He will also have the advantage of having a far better manifesto that any of the other parties as although not being mentioned by MSM he runs the only party that appear to have any actual popular policies.

 

Added to this the television media are forced by law to maintain impartiality once the election has been called & Corbyn made massive strides last time once their bias was negated somewhat. The PLP issues will also lessen in the run-up as some of the worst aggressors will have been trigger balloted out & the ones who are standing will have to concentrate on their own constituencies. 

 

Don't get me wrong there are big issues to solve such as Scotland , and unknowns such as the Brexit situation at the time of the election , but to suggest he has no chance of winning is ridiculous.

For me it is simple maths. To begin with, it's not a popularity contest, so how many votes are won is irrelevant. It's where they're won.

 

Secondly labour will be lucky to win a seat in Scotland. And they're not represented in Northern Ireland. So they need to get enough seats in England and Wales in order to gain a majority. Outside of the cities from the Midlands down, the country is petrified of Corbyn. In exactly the same way I hold a view of anybody but Johnson, the vast majority of swing voters in swing seats hold a pretty similar view on Corbyn. I agree my view of that is mostly anecdotal (and the shite you hear on the radio, social media etc) - but I meet quite a range of people in my work from large swathes of the country, you see the fear of Corbyn in their eyes. I just don't see any possible way a Corbyn led labour party wins enough seats to win a majority. He's also said in the previous election he wouldn't have a coalition with the SNP and I've seen nothing to suggest that has changed. 

 

Finally, you make a good point that he maybe can have a better more prepared manifesto. However, I think it's highly likely due to the current maths on parliament, the GE will be fought before brexit is complete and the campaign will be about nothing else. Labour do not have a clear definable position on brexit. I did an online WebEx thing just a couple of weeks ago with Keir Starmer, where he was to outline the labour position. It was embarrassing, he could answer nothing of value and they ended up cutting it short by 20 mins because he couldn't answer anything that mattered - including if there was an election tomorrow, what would labour campaign on. Those questions are easy to dodge if there's not an election in sight, but that's not the world we live in. He clarified nothing.

 

The government has a majority of 3, with Iain Duncan Smith egging on Tory MP's who don't vote with the government to resign the whip. That was on TV just this morning. And it seems he's going to be the new chancellor. I think the Tories want an election and soon. I think Boris wants an excuse to extend leaving the EU and calling an election will be the way to do it. We'll have a campaign based on brexit where somehow despite their divisions the Tories will appear more strong than labour because they will have a position, be that a fucking mental right wing one.  What is in the rest of the labour manifesto will be irrelevant, because brexit will carry the headlines and the thoughts of the nation and probably quite rightly too. Without a sensible and well thought out solution to brexit (remaining or leaving), the rest of the policies aren't worth shite as we've no idea if the economy we'll be leaving ourselves with to find anything for the social benefit or otherwise. Brexit is the most important economic decision in front of us and without a coherent strategy on that, labour cannot and will not win an election. 

 

And then after all that, the press will have tons of stories lined up to shoot Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbot by the day. They're easy targets, the first 2 because of their history, the latter because she's fucking useless and they're the leading 3 figures of labour today. 

 

[sir roger]

Don't want to hijack the thread going into minutiae of an election that we don't know will even happen for two years , but on one hand you say that popularity won't win him an election then say you see ' fear in peoples eyes ' about him. As I say he picked up nearly 13m votes so he obviously isn't that scary to people who haven't already had their mind made up by MSM or their political allegiances . Being able to explain the manifesto and policies without political bias will help once again.

 

Your post also features Brexit heavily and we have no idea what will happen there before a GE. If as you suggest, the Tories go in without a resolution they will lose lots of votes to the Brexit Party and the election could end up being won with a relatively small vote.

 

Labour will invest heavily in swing seats and we saw how this can help in Peterborough , and I don't think we will do as badly as you suggest in Scotland where Corbyn's policies go down quite well in the larger cities. I think the Tories vote will collapse up there completely.