Should the UK remain a member of the EU

[AngryOfTuebrook]

This is a useful reference piece.  Professor Dougan (a couple of years ago) detailing what the Single Market actually is and describing how it inevitably requires political structures to make it work.  This explains why it makes no sense to talk of wanting a trading union but not any sort of political union.

 

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

Excellent little film about the lies that won the Brexit referendum. 

 

 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

Getting interesting, now.  The anti-May, pro-Brexit wing of the Tory Party have to decide whether to vote for an agreement that, basically, risks postponing Brexit indefinitely, or to vote against it and risk triggering a General Election (that Labour will stand a very good chance of winning).  The DUP could torpedo the whole fucking mess.  The anti-Corbyn wing of the Labour Party who have pinned their reputations on all that #FBPE bollocks have to either follow the party line of voting against May or sign the death-warrant of their own careers.  

 

The UK Government is in disarray - with all kinds of possibilities swirling around and nobody really in control of any of them - while the EU can sit back and wait to see what happens.  The pro-Brexit charlatans who started all this shite must surely now be exposed as the frauds they are.  

 

Interesting times indeed.  Buckle up, Buckaroo!

 

https://skwawkbox.org/2018/12/03/breaking-may-caves-and-published-brexit-legal-advice-it-confirms-uk-can-only-exit-with-eus-ok/

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46419790

 

 

 

 

 

[Barrington Womble]

1 hour ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

Getting interesting, now.  The anti-May, pro-Brexit wing of the Tory Party have to decide whether to vote for an agreement that, basically, risks postponing Brexit indefinitely, or to vote against it and risk triggering a General Election (that Labour will stand a very good chance of winning).  The DUP could torpedo the whole fucking mess.  The anti-Corbyn wing of the Labour Party who have pinned their reputations on all that #FBPE bollocks have to either follow the party line of voting against May or sign the death-warrant of their own careers.  

 

The UK Government is in disarray - with all kinds of possibilities swirling around and nobody really in control of any of them - while the EU can sit back and wait to see what happens.  The pro-Brexit charlatans who started all this shite must surely now be exposed as the frauds they are.  

 

Interesting times indeed.  Buckle up, Buckaroo!

 

https://skwawkbox.org/2018/12/03/breaking-may-caves-and-published-brexit-legal-advice-it-confirms-uk-can-only-exit-with-eus-ok/

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46419790

 

 

 

 

 

This is a serious question, why do you think the meaningful vote  going against May will mean a general election? All I think it will do is allow the tory right to force a leadership election of the tory Party and take us all towards whatever armageddon they believe means brexit means brexit. I can't see any way the tories will vote for the end of this parliament. 

[Strontium]

There will not be a general election. It's a Corbynite fantasy.

[SasaS]

2 hours ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

Getting interesting, now.  The anti-May, pro-Brexit wing of the Tory Party have to decide whether to vote for an agreement that, basically, risks postponing Brexit indefinitely, or to vote against it and risk triggering a General Election (that Labour will stand a very good chance of winning).  The DUP could torpedo the whole fucking mess.  The anti-Corbyn wing of the Labour Party who have pinned their reputations on all that #FBPE bollocks have to either follow the party line of voting against May or sign the death-warrant of their own careers.  

 

The UK Government is in disarray - with all kinds of possibilities swirling around and nobody really in control of any of them - while the EU can sit back and wait to see what happens.  The pro-Brexit charlatans who started all this shite must surely now be exposed as the frauds they are.  

 

Interesting times indeed.  Buckle up, Buckaroo!

 

https://skwawkbox.org/2018/12/03/breaking-may-caves-and-published-brexit-legal-advice-it-confirms-uk-can-only-exit-with-eus-ok/

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46419790

 

 

 

"A calculated risk"... last time I heard these words it really went well.

[mattyq]

I don't see how the Tories would lose a vote of no confidence... turkeys voting for Christmas

[Oh Buoy]

The House of Commons' confidential legal analysis of the Withdrawal Agreement:

 

http://2mbg6fgb1kl380gtk22pbxgw-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Withdrawal-Agreement-Legal-and-Governance-Aspects.pdf

 

Fucking hell. What an absolute piece of shite.

[cloggypop]

There's a lot of EU law applies in getting your country back apparently. 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

2 hours ago, Barry Wom said:

This is a serious question, why do you think the meaningful vote  going against May will mean a general election? All I think it will do is allow the tory right to force a leadership election of the tory Party and take us all towards whatever armageddon they believe means brexit means brexit. I can't see any way the tories will vote for the end of this parliament. 

That's just one of the real (pay attention, Stronts) possibilities swirling around.

 

If May loses the vote (as is distinctly possible) Labour will trigger a vote of no confidence in the Government; if the Government loses that vote (and, bearing in mind the current position of the DUP, that is also a distinct possibility) then the Tories have 14 days to agree a new Government capable of commanding a Parliamentary majority (and, bearing in mind the state of the Tories at present, it's distinctly possible that they might not do that); if they cannot agree a new Government in 14 days, they have to call a General Election.

 

Interesting times.  

[AngryOfTuebrook]

This is what "strong and stable" Government looks like.

 

 

 

[magicrat]

40 minutes ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

This is what "strong and stable" Government looks like.

 

 

 

Revenge is a dish best served cold in Bercow's case

[magicrat]

1 hour ago, mattyq said:

I don't see how the Tories would lose a vote of no confidence... turkeys voting for Christmas

Depends on the DUP. Unlikely but possible.

 

Still think we will end up with a second referendum 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

7 hours ago, magicrat said:

Depends on the DUP. Unlikely but possible.

 

Still think we will end up with a second referendum 

That may be May's best remaining chance to cling onto power for a few more weeks.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

Interesting graphic.

(I haven't fact-checked it, so you can take it with a pinch of salt if you like.  I think it looks about right, though.)

 

 

A REMINDER of how little our EU membership costs. For the average taxpayer: around £26 a year. To gain estimated economic benefits of £170 a year. Who would turn down an offer like that?

Look at the National Debt Interest in comparison with the EU contribution and other expenditure. In early 2016, before the dreaded vote, the annual deficit was forecast to be eliminated by 2020. Now - if Brexit happens - who knows when, if ever? The interest will carry on mounting up until the debt is controlled. Brexit = more austerity.

[Spy Bee]

12 hours ago, Strontium Dog said:

There will not be a general election. It's a Corbynite fantasy.

It's looking more and more likely by the hour.

[Bobby Hundreds]

So article 50 can be revoked

[Barrington Womble]

10 hours ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

That's just one of the real (pay attention, Stronts) possibilities swirling around.

 

If May loses the vote (as is distinctly possible) Labour will trigger a vote of no confidence in the Government; if the Government loses that vote (and, bearing in mind the current position of the DUP, that is also a distinct possibility) then the Tories have 14 days to agree a new Government capable of commanding a Parliamentary majority (and, bearing in mind the state of the Tories at present, it's distinctly possible that they might not do that); if they cannot agree a new Government in 14 days, they have to call a General Election.

 

Interesting times.  

I thought the dup had already said they wouldn't support a no confidence vote regardless of how the meaningful vote went. I might be wrong on that, but I thought Foster said it on Marr 10 days or so ago. 

[cloggypop]

37 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

So article 50 can be revoked

It's not the ruling yet but looking more likely. 

[AngryOfTuebrook]

40 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

So article 50 can be revoked

Good stuff.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-court-case-latest-article-50-cancel-overturn-european-justice-ruling-verdict-a8666016.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3Jge25i7aCHFgTH4bUpBWQiTXh2z81L3rqANMnfCytTGaSzb1duI1m4rE#Echobox=1543911976

[AngryOfTuebrook]

21 minutes ago, Barry Wom said:

I thought the dup had already said they wouldn't support a no confidence vote regardless of how the meaningful vote went. I might be wrong on that, but I thought Foster said it on Marr 10 days or so ago. 

I thought the Lib Dems were the anti-Brexit party, but two of them have said that they'll vote with May.

 

All kinds of things are still possible - from a Johnson Government crashing us out with no deal, to a Corbyn Government rescinding A50,. In line with the result of a second referendum.

 

 I'm not even sure anyone can say what is most likely to happen.

[Don Balon]

Let's be right here, a no deal isn't going to happen. 

 

The sort of language being used in documents now is frankly absurd, even comparing us with the USSR in terms of food shortages, which to me suggests that even the people writing the reports are fucking around and writing in a style which suggests the report isn't worth the keystrokes spent on them. 

 

This is the death of the Conservative Party right here and now.  And while a new party will rise from the ashes, be that a centrist party or Lib Dems, everyday sees another few hundred people come of age, or come to realise just how shite their future looks under conservatism.

 

The resignation of May will happen, but judging by the split in the Tories I don't see how an ERG Member will be the most popular choice for them. They know a crackpot will take us towards some no deal hellscape, and they won't vote for a candidate who wants that.  While the referendum raised the mantra of 'the people have spoken', that won't save the jobs of Tory MPs in constituencies who voted Remain, or since the vote have visited their MP in droves to say they made a mistake, and that includes business leaders in their towns and cities.  Survival instinct kicks in at this point, they can;'t win a subsequent election in their constituency based on the waning mantra of "i voted in the best interests of the people", because the only people that matter at the end of the day are the voters in that area. 

 

So I think we're more likely to end up with some sort of 'moderate' Tory becoming PM, rather than a GE, and at that point a second referendum might happen quite quickly, very quickly.

 

 

[Don Balon]

Labour would stand a chance to win a GE based on domestic problems, such as the fuck-up that is HS2, and the rate at which high-street shops are closing.

 

But any GE for now will not be won or lost on domestic issues, it will be fought on Brexit, and there's really no room for manouvre for Labour without calculated risks in terms of pissing off 40-52% of the voter base and losing their vote for a generation.

 

You can say it's a calculated risk, the Brexit voters will die off steadily over the coming decade, but I could foresee a situation where we have a GE next year, and then another one a year later.

 

Labour need to kill the Tories off, and at present the best way of doing that seems to be to let them kill themselves.   But that comes at great cost, people are dying every day because of these tax-dodgers. 

[SasaS]

I think May will survive and the majority will accept the current Brexit deal with some last minute tweaks from the EU that can be dressed as a big improvement, Conservatives will want to avoid elections and the support for no deal is nowhere near enough. May's biggest advantage is still that nobody else wants to be in her position and Labour are well aware that a significantly better deal with the EU is not possible.

[Spy Bee]

23 minutes ago, Don Balon said:

This is the death of the Conservative Party right here and now. 

 

We fucking wish!

 

6 minutes ago, SasaS said:

 May's biggest advantage is still that nobody else wants to be in her position and Labour are well aware that a significantly better deal with the EU is not possible.

If Labour ride this out long enough, it could be win-win for them. The EU situation will be resolved one way or another and the public will want rid of the Tories.