Should the UK remain a member of the EU

[JohnnyH]

This all kind of feels like a good moment for Corbyn to step up to the plate I'd have thought?  His virtual silence doesn't stand well to him.

[The Guest]

This all kind of feels like a good moment for Corbyn to step up to the plate I'd have thought? His virtual silence doesn't stand well to him.

What do you want him to say? If he comes out saying he wants to remain then enough of his votes will disappear back to UKIP and we end up leaving the EU anyway and have a massive Tory majority again. I can’t fathom how people never seem to realise this.

[Guest Pistonbroke]

This all kind of feels like a good moment for Corbyn to step up to the plate I'd have thought?  His virtual silence doesn't stand well to him.

 

I don't see it that way. It would be akin to running into a blazing building not knowing what you want to save. The Tories are ripping themselves apart and showing their incompetence over Brexit. With the country still split, albeit certain areas more strongly so, it would be folly to take over the poison chalice. He could take a risk I suppose, but why bother? Just let the Tories carry on making fools of themselves and stand by for the inevitable. 

[moof]

Labour are planning for an election late next year, so I think it would be remiss to piss off half the electorate at this point. As Piston said, just wait for the inevitable implosion, then start picking up the pieces.

[mattyq]

I was about to say thank you for pointing the WTO position out which would mean we would have to put a border up and then I read the article. Did you bother reading it? It’s not what you are saying at all and not a position the WTO have outlined whatsoever. It’s this sort of bollocks that’s had people in a spin half the time coming out with hyperbolic nonsense. “The WTO will insist on a border.” Fucking brilliant.

 

In that article it’s the opinion of a former WTO leader saying that there will have to be a border because the UK will be out of the single market which is exactly why I was saying this is Ireland and the EU’s problem not the UK’s. The UK wants free trade and will be comfortable with the level of goods coming from the EU. The UK doesn’t need a border with Ireland, Ireland and the EU will want a border with the UK to stop any goods being sold or bought without their tariffs and minimum levels of requirement. Absolutely nothing to do with the WTO’s position.

 

When did I say there was no border between the UK and Ireland for a long time? It seems like you’re another one of these people reading what you wanted to read. What I said was that the Irish has been able to work in the UK for a long time so the freedom of movement of Labour between the UK and Ireland isn’t something I imagine the brexiteers were too arsed about. I’ve just looked it up and it dates back to 1922.

Ok, imagine you buy a house with a million quid mortgage but half way through you decide you don't like the view and you csn't be arsed paying for it any more would you just gib it off? You might try but you'd be prosecuted by the Bank and possibly bankrupted or jailed if you refused to pay.

This is where the UK is in relation to what we owe the EU

 

We could just fuck off and refuse to pay anything but we'd lose all the EU trade; nobody would lend us any money because we'd have a track record of not paying debts and we'd be up shit creek without a paddle.

People who say we should just Leave are basically idiots or liars or both

 

The £50 billion is just for settling our bill and nothing to do with securing a future trade deal...the negotiations for that haven't started yet

 

Re the NI border May wants to leave the Single Market and Customs Union so there has to be a hard border otherwise we could import a load of cheap dodgy American shit chicken and illegally import it into the EU via Ireland

Likewise loads of evil Polish migrants could fly to Ireleand and then just nip across the Border into the UK and do their evil thing in the UK which is unacceptable to the Brexiteers.

A country's first job is to protect its borders and anybody who says otherwise is a know nothing gobshite

 

If you're wondering why it;s so expensive and such a waste of money for nothing you're not alone

[deiseach]

It seems to be a common trait of Brexiteers to play the man when it comes to opinions that don't conform with their view on how Brexit should play out. If the insight of a former head of the WTO isn't enough, here's an article explaining why an open trading border is incompatible with WTO membership (but I'm sure Alan Beattie can be dismissed because he lives in Brussels):

 

As the weeks pass, so the ideas get sillier. One circulating among certain Brexiters at the moment is that the UK could gain the upper hand over the Ireland issue by simply leaving the Irish border open after Brexit, charging no tariffs and making no inspections, and dare the EU to be the first to put up customs posts.

 

Would this actually work in the real world? No, for many reasons. At the most it is likely to be a crude blame-shifting exercise aimed at getting the British public to point the finger at the Irish when the border inevitably goes up.

 

For a post-Brexit UK to charge no tariffs on imports from the EU would be a massive breach of the rules of the World Trade Organization, which operates on a “most-favoured nation” (MFN) principle of equal treatment. This can be overridden if two or more members sign a formal bilateral or regional trade agreement among themselves. But it will take years for the UK to agree a trade deal with the EU: Britain cannot simply pre-empt it by holding tariffs at zero from the off.

 

If the UK discriminates in this way, it will be vulnerable to widespread litigation in the WTO. This will come at a time when the UK is attempting to regularise its position in the organisation, in which it has hitherto been represented by the EU. The UK is dependent on the goodwill of other WTO members in the tricky question of splitting the EU’s existing commitments on food import quotas. It must also establish its position in the WTO’s government procurement agreement which gives its companies the right to bid for public tenders abroad. Arriving on the scene while creating one of the biggest breaches of WTO law in the organisation’s existence probably isn’t the way to get other countries on side.

 

Of course, the UK could fulfil the MFN principle by immediately offering zero tariffs to every WTO member. Domestically, that would be politically disastrous. British farmers shelter behind EU tariffs that can rise to more than 50 per cent for beef and lamb. Sweeping them away would lead to mass bankruptcies as cheaper Brazilian and Australian produce flooded in. Even in manufacturing, where tariffs are lower, accepting, say, cars at a zero rather than the current 10 per cent duty would have some serious repercussions.

 

Moreover, offering zero tariffs all round would risk Northern Ireland being turned into a backdoor export platform to the EU. Chinese exporters, for example, would land goods in Belfast at nil tariff and drive them across the border. In principle, this would be controlled by “rules of origin” checks to assess where the goods came from, which can be administered electronically. In practice, Ireland and the EU are taking a huge risk if they leave a completely absent physical border with such huge opportunities for mislabelling and smuggling.

 

Even if they can work out the tariffs, other questions remain. Border controls are not simply a question of duties. They also function as inspection posts for product safety and food hygiene. So if the UK diverged from EU food and product quality regulations, Ireland would be forced to put in inspection posts to prevent substandard goods circulating in the UK economy leaking into the EU.

 

Brexiters can argue that considerations about enforcing rules of origin and product regulations are still a matter of choice. In reality, though, they are not. They are legal obligations. If Ireland breaches the integrity of the single market by failing to control its border, it will be liable at the European Court of Justice. The decision to put up a border will in effect not be one taken unilaterally by Dublin. If the UK is hoping to use this issue to drive a wedge between Ireland and the rest of the EU rather than simply to grandstand to a domestic British audience, it will very likely fail.

 

And the UK has its own obligations to think about. Even if the UK promised to comply with EU product and hygiene regulations in perpetuity, border controls also function as an enforcement agency for a wide variety of laws including restricting counterfeits, ensuring environmental safety, deterring human smuggling, protecting industrial and commercial property and safeguarding national treasures. Some of these are obligations directly on the UK as a signatory to United Nations charters. Leaving the border open would thus expose the UK as an eccentric, irresponsible global citizen, not a terrific way to launch boldly into the world as an independent trading nation.

 

I have run the idea of a one-way UK-Ireland open frontier past some border and tax experts in Brussels. The answer was a resounding thumbs-down, for the reasons stated above.

 

If would be extraordinary if even this beleaguered government genuinely tried the crude and ignorant bluff of threatening to leave the border open. To the extent that anyone should take it seriously, it is as an exercise in pre-emptive blame-shifting with regard to British public opinion rather than a coherent plan.

 

 

I've highlighted the money quote. i.e. if the UK offers open borders to Ireland and the EU, it has to offer them to everyone. Of course, maybe the UK plan is becoming a pirate state like Somaliland. It would be nothing if not creative. 

 

As for the border and the movement across it, the retention of the Common Travel Area has been already agreed, so it's no longer a part of this conversation (NB the UK has also agreed the divorce settlement). The issue at stake is one of customs and regulations, and it is not so very long since they were in place. Far from being unthinkable, they were in place barely a generation ago. Again, it's okay to be okay with that. But spare us the exercises in magical realism.

[The Guest]

Ok, imagine you buy a house with a million quid mortgage but half way through you decide you don't like the view and you csn't be arsed paying for it any more would you just gib it off? You might try but you'd be prosecuted by the Bank and possibly bankrupted or jailed if you refused to pay.

This is where the UK is in relation to what we owe the EU

 

We could just fuck off and refuse to pay anything but we'd lose all the EU trade; nobody would lend us any money because we'd have a track record of not paying debts and we'd be up shit creek without a paddle.

People who say we should just Leave are basically idiots or liars or both

 

The £50 billion is just for settling our bill and nothing to do with securing a future trade deal...the negotiations for that haven't started yet

 

Re the NI border May wants to leave the Single Market and Customs Union so there has to be a hard border otherwise we could import a load of cheap dodgy American shit chicken and illegally import it into the EU via Ireland

Likewise loads of evil Polish migrants could fly to Ireleand and then just nip across the Border into the UK and do their evil thing in the UK which is unacceptable to the Brexiteers.

A country's first job is to protect its borders and anybody who says otherwise is a know nothing gobshite

 

If you're wondering why it;s so expensive and such a waste of money for nothing you're not alone

Point 1 on the house thing. I’ve seen this type of analogy now about 100 times and it’s complete bullshit. I could easily just come up with another one. Imagine you bought a house with your bird and then you break up. You decide to move out and your bird has got more than enough money to buy you out but instead decides she wants you to pay up your half of the mortgage but you don’t get any benefits if owning the house or living in it.

 

It’s as much nonsense as your analogy. When that budget was agreed we were getting all the free trade benefits that the EU want to stop us from getting when we leave. The fact of the matter is we can leave without paying a penny. The most recent EU could do is refuse to trade with us which would never happen in a million years because they’ve got too much to lose. What will likely happen is they will put tariffs on us which is what they will do anyway. The 50bn Brexit bill is the only leverage the UK has on a good trade deal and it can and does appear to be using it. The EU kicking and squirming every day in the press about it is showing their hand massively. It just a shame so many braindead drones like yourself can’t see past your own blind position.

 

The second thing on the borders is fucking comical. I don’t know how many times I have to point it out but why is it the UK’s problem if the EU doesn’t want poorer quality chicken coming through the border. It’s the EU and Ireland’s. If they want to put a border up then go ahead but that’s on them not us.

[deiseach]

There's a lot to the notion that the EU can't force the UK to pay the divorce bill. What court would the EU take the UK to in order to ensure payment? However, every action taken by the British government so far indicates they are willing to pay the bill without any reassurances about it buying them anything. The debacle yesterday disguised the fact that this had been agreed. Perhaps it's all a sly move on Theresa May's to deflect from it . . . then again, probably not. If this is the EU losing, I can't imagine what winning would look like.

[The Guest]

It seems to be a common trait of Brexiteers to play the man when it comes to opinions that don't conform with their view on how Brexit should play out. If the insight of a former head of the WTO isn't enough, here's an article explaining why an open trading border is incompatible with WTO membership (but I'm sure Alan Beattie can be dismissed because he lives in Brussels):

 

 

I've highlighted the money quote. i.e. if the UK offers open borders to Ireland and the EU, it has to offer them to everyone. Of course, maybe the UK plan is becoming a pirate state like Somaliland. It would be nothing if not creative.

 

As for the border and the movement across it, the retention of the Common Travel Area has been already agreed, so it's no longer a part of this conversation (NB the UK has also agreed the divorce settlement). The issue at stake is one of customs and regulations, and it is not so very long since they were in place. Far from being unthinkable, they were in place barely a generation ago. Again, it's okay to be okay with that. But spare us the exercises in magical realism.

Play the man? You posted an article linked to a sentence saying this is the WTO’s position. It wasn’t. It was an opinion on there having to be a border from someone who no longer works for the WTO.

 

I’m a remainer by the way. I’m just fed up with the tidal wave of shite I read that’s clearly aimed at terrifying the and people who dared vote to leave into conforming with their opinion.

 

I’m quite happy to read stuff like this second article though. It’s informative and tells me stuff I don’t know. I’m not stupid enough to just automatically believe a load of opinion of someone I haven’t heard of before though. I read enough of the guardian and independent to see how they’re trying to massage public opinion to be their own.

 

This is a really unique situation that the UK finds itself in and the UK is the buyer in a buyers market. A lot of that article runs with the view that the UK has to conform with the WTO rules. I’m sure I’ve read that when the UK leaves the EU it will no longer be a member of the WTO and will have to reapply for membership and if that’s true I’m sure we can do what we want for that period in between that gets mentioned.

[mattyq]

Point 1 on the house thing. I’ve seen this type of analogy now about 100 times and it’s complete bullshit. I could easily just come up with another one. Imagine you bought a house with your bird and then you break up. You decide to move out and your bird has got more than enough money to buy you out but instead decides she wants you to pay up your half of the mortgage but you don’t get any benefits if owning the house or living in it.

 

It’s as much nonsense as your analogy. When that budget was agreed we were getting all the free trade benefits that the EU want to stop us from getting when we leave. The fact of the matter is we can leave without paying a penny. The most recent EU could do is refuse to trade with us which would never happen in a million years because they’ve got too much to lose. What will likely happen is they will put tariffs on us which is what they will do anyway. The 50bn Brexit bill is the only leverage the UK has on a good trade deal and it can and does appear to be using it. The EU kicking and squirming every day in the press about it is showing their hand massively. It just a shame so many braindead drones like yourself can’t see past your own blind position.

 

The second thing on the borders is fucking comical. I don’t know how many times I have to point it out but why is it the UK’s problem if the EU doesn’t want poorer quality chicken coming through the border. It’s the EU and Ireland’s. If they want to put a border up then go ahead but that’s on them not us.

The reason I gave you a simplistic house analogy is because I thought you were too stupid to understand anything more complex

Sadly, you've just proved it...well done you

Tell me...have you ever been thrown off a bus for licking the windows?

[Guest Pistonbroke]

Jesus, the Guest has basically proven a few points as to why a great deal of those who voted 'leave' did so on the back of not having a scoobies, they clearly don't want to learn either. 

[The Guest]

There's a lot to the notion that the EU can't force the UK to pay the divorce bill. What court would the EU take the UK to in order to ensure payment? However, every action taken by the British government so far indicates they are willing to pay the bill without any reassurances about it buying them anything. The debacle yesterday disguised the fact that this had been agreed. Perhaps it's all a sly move on Theresa May's to deflect from it . . . then again, probably not. If this is the EU losing, I can't imagine what winning would look like.

Honestly mate open your eyes. Every action taken by the UK govt indicates they are happy to pay the bill without any reassurances? I’ve read some shite on this thread but I think that tops the lot. If that was the case they would have just agreed it months ago.

[mattyq]

Jesus, the Guest has basically proven a few points as to why a great deal of those who voted 'leave' did so on the back of not having a scoobies, they clearly don't want to learn either. 

They do know all of this stuff but think it doesn't apply to us for some reason

Imagine a right winger law & order type saying that we don't need to bother about our borders...or think it's ok and acceptable to not pay your debts...no, we don't need to bother paying our debts; nothing bad is going to happen to us said nobody ever

Imagine if this was Labour Party policy that the unemployed don't need to pay their debts - they'd be freaking out and crying that society's going to end

Or Labour policy to ignore our Borders ...not our problem, guv, it's the Irish and the French, we don't want a Border anyway

It's just laughable and pathetic and a real indictment of our Education system

[The Guest]

Jesus, the Guest has basically proven a few points as to why a great deal of those who voted 'leave' did so on the back of not having a scoobies, they clearly don't want to learn either.

I voted remain piston and I’d vote remain again given the chance. I’m happy to listen to arguments on both sides. Morally the UK should be committed to paying the Brexit bill regardless for all the reasons you stated earlier but what I’m saying is that economically that would be a bad decision. They should use it as leverage to gain a better trade deal. The EU want Brexit to fail and will give us as bad a deal as they can get away with. With less leverage the deal gets worse.

 

Most brexiteers I know are braindead and they voted leave for braindead reasons. Not all of them though. There is a large section of remainers though that are the opposite side of the same coin. It’s like they’ve been indoctrinated with pro-EU spin in the same way Britain first and all those other retarded xenophobic organisations have convinced half of England that all their problems are down to immigrants.

 

We are in the situation we are in and to make the best of it we should be thinking of it all like a business decision. The majority of the posts on here are emotion driven bollocks with no substance. Exampled by that link saying the WTO will demand a border when they’ve said no such thing. And it’s all to try to sway people’s views with lies and “fake news.”

[clangers]

Labour are planning for an election late next year, so I think it would be remiss to piss off half the electorate at this point. As Piston said, just wait for the inevitable implosion, then start picking up the pieces.

That's my take on it, let the Tories own this. It does open Labour up to the accusation of them not having a solution or direction themselves at the moment.

 

I still think they'll move to keeping us in the single market and customs union if the Tories tear themselves apart over the next six months. I can see Corbyn opting for another referendum if circumstances deteriorate. The majority of us will probably be grateful by that point.

[The Guest]

They do know all of this stuff but think it doesn't apply to us for some reason

Imagine a right winger law & order type saying that we don't need to bother about our borders...or think it's ok and acceptable to not pay your debts...no, we don't need to bother paying our debts; nothing bad is going to happen to us said nobody ever

Imagine if this was Labour Party policy that the unemployed don't need to pay their debts - they'd be freaking out and crying that society's going to end

Or Labour policy to ignore our Borders ...not our problem, guv, it's the Irish and the French, we don't want a Border anyway

It's just laughable and pathetic and a real indictment of our Education system

You’ve just been making licking windows jokes mate.

[Guest Pistonbroke]

I voted remain piston and I’d vote remain again given the chance. I’m happy to listen to arguments on both sides. Morally the UK should be committed to paying the Brexit bill regardless for all the reasons you stated earlier but what I’m saying is that economically that would be a bad decision. They should use it as leverage to gain a better trade deal. The EU want Brexit to fail and will give us as bad a deal as they can get away with. With less leverage the deal gets worse.

 

Most brexiteers I know are braindead and they voted leave for braindead reasons. Not all of them though. There is a large section of remainers though that are the opposite side of the same coin. It’s like they’ve been indoctrinated with pro-EU spin in the same way Britain first and all those other retarded xenophobic organisations have convinced half of England that all their problems are down to immigrants.

 

We are in the situation we are in and to make the best of it we should be thinking of it all like a business decision. The majority of the posts on here are emotion driven bollocks with no substance. Exampled by that link saying the WTO will demand a border when they’ve said no such thing. And it’s all to try to sway people’s views with lies and “fake news.”

 

If paying your debts is economically bad then you only have yourself to blame. They can't use it as leverage, they have tried to a certain extent, alongside bringing up stuff like security. The EU laid their cards on the table and stated from the off what had to be done before moving onto the next stage of talks. The UK Gov't tried to act all billy big bollocks by shuffling the pack, then shuffling it some more in the hope they could bluff. That didn't work as the EU aren't in the same incompetence league. I'm not saying the EU won't come to some compromise in certain areas, but it won't be at the detriment of its 27 members, and if the UK still think they can have their cake and eat it they are sorely mistaken. The UK is the one wanting to leave the Union/Club, why the fuck would you let them have a great deal when you don't have to? Plus what has happened to all the leave camps bravado about all these other countries wanting to make trade deals which would see the UK rise to the Empire status it once had. It dawned on those leading talks from the UK long ago that they were caught out spreading bullshit and hoping that if they shook a barren tree something would fall out. They are now scratching about to try and save face whilst the clock keeps ticking. The EU still have a flush in their hand whilst the UK are bluffing on a shitty pair. Plus what is all this pro EU spin? Where is it coming from? Oh yeah, your own country. The EU itself have held their same cards from the beginning and haven't even had to say much, just repeat the same things the UK keep dancing around. 

[The Guest]

If paying your debts is economically bad then you only have yourself to blame. They can't use it as leverage, they have tried to a certain extent, alongside bringing up stuff like security. The EU laid their cards on the table and stated from the off what had to be done before moving onto the next stage of talks. The UK Gov't tried to act all billy big bollocks by shuffling the pack, then shuffling it some more in the hope they could bluff. That didn't work as the EU aren't in the same incompetence league. I'm not saying the EU won't come to some compromise in certain areas, but it won't be at the detriment of its 27 members, and if the UK still think they can have their cake and eat it they are sorely mistaken. The UK is the one wanting to leave the Union/Club, why the fuck would you let them have a great deal when you don't have to? Plus what has happened to all the leave camps bravado about all these other countries wanting to make trade deals which would see the UK rise to the Empire status it once had. It dawned on those leading talks from the UK long ago that they were caught out spreading bullshit and hoping that if they shook a barren tree something would fall out. They are now scratching about to try and save face whilst the clock keeps ticking. The EU still have a flush in their hand whilst the UK are bluffing on a shitty pair. Plus what is all this pro EU spin? Where is it coming from? Oh yeah, your own country. The EU itself have held their same cards from the beginning and haven't even had to say much, just repeat the same things the UK keep dancing around.

Honestly what is the issue with this? Why can nobody on here seem to accept that there’s fuck all point in paying the Brexit bill if it doesn’t benefit us. It’s almost like if you accept it you’ve lost the argument. It’s a simple point. Leaving is still a bad thing. You’re right about them having no reason to give us a good deal. Why would they and should they? If the UK make a success of it then other EU members might fancy doing it as well.

 

The only reason to give any concessions at all is a big 50bn black hole in the budget for the next 3 years which will have to come out of the other EU member states finances instead. You can pretend that isn’t leverage but it clearly is.

 

In terms of the leave camps bravado disappearing you will have to ask them, I have no idea.

 

And now some more analogies. This one about card games and shuffling decks. In reality the positions of both sides haven’t really moved in the whole time since the activation of article 50. I doubt they will move at all until the last possible moment.

 

I may be completely wrong but I can’t see the government just paying 50bn and then coming out with a deal as bad as no deal because they gave away their leverage. The tories would never recover.

[Guest Pistonbroke]

I give up. Not even reading that after your first sentence. 

[The Guest]

I give up. Not even reading that after your first sentence.

That doesn’t shock me.

[Rico1304]

Honestly what is the issue with this? Why can nobody on here seem to accept that there’s fuck all point in paying the Brexit bill if it doesn’t benefit us. It’s almost like if you accept it you’ve lost the argument. It’s a simple point. Leaving is still a bad thing. You’re right about them having no reason to give us a good deal. Why would they and should they? If the UK make a success of it then other EU members might fancy doing it as well.

The only reason to give any concessions at all is a big 50bn black hole in the budget for the next 3 years which will have to come out of the other EU member states finances instead. You can pretend that isn’t leverage but it clearly is.

In terms of the leave camps bravado disappearing you will have to ask them, I have no idea.

And now some more analogies. This one about card games and shuffling decks. In reality the positions of both sides haven’t really moved in the whole time since the activation of article 50. I doubt they will move at all until the last possible moment.

I may be completely wrong but I can’t see the government just paying 50bn and then coming out with a deal as bad as no deal because they gave away their leverage. The tories would never recover.

It does benefit us.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/the-truth-about-britains-eu-divorce-bill-and-why-we-should-pay-it-a8051891.html

[magicrat]

Cant get excited about the divorce bill. Frothing loons seem to think it's fundamental but paid over many years and balanced against the trade we do with the EU it's  a non issue in the real world, Anyway things are getting ugly and very real for May and her loyal cabinet,  Election looming

[A Red]

Honestly mate open your eyes. Every action taken by the UK govt indicates they are happy to pay the bill without any reassurances? I’ve read some shite on this thread but I think that tops the lot. If that was the case they would have just agreed it months ago.

This is the bright spark who thought that brexit meant his british wife would be expelled from Ireland. He went 18 months thinking that and only found out, on this thread, that it wasnt true. No, hes written worse shite on this thread

[The Guest]

This is the bright spark who thought that brexit meant his british wife would be expelled from Ireland. He went 18 months thinking that and only found out, on this thread, that it wasnt true. No, hes written worse shite on this thread

Haha fucking hell.

[AngryOfTuebrook]

And it’s free movement of labour skend not people.

Whatever point you're trying to make, you're wrong: it's free movement of people.

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=uriserv%3Axy0023