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Should the UK remain a member of the EU

  

315 members have voted

  1. 1. Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    • Yes
      257
    • No
      58


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50 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Panning out that way, in building and in general, wages up, unemployment down, vacancies up, inflation steady, growth steady, 

 

https://www.business-live.co.uk/commercial-property/persimmon-profits-jump-64-housing-21337732

 

Growth predicted to come in at approximately 7% this year, partly due to our quick vaccination process, same growth as the States. Forecast upgrade of 1.7 per cent, largest in the G7..

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/imf-lifts-forecast-uk-growth-2021-after-vaccine-roll-out-2021-07-27/

So, suddenly you're horny for big, exploitative corporations getting a boost to their profits?

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8 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Well, you don't need a particularly long memory to recall the prophets of doom predicting a building industry collapse after Brexit, hasn't happened, not going to happen. All that's happened in real terms is wages have risen, working conditions have improved and company profits have soared.

No. What's one international company's global results for one year got to do with Brexit?

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6 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

So, suddenly you're horny for big, exploitative corporations getting a boost to their profits?

Not really, the point is leaving the EU hasn't damaged the building industry (as many predicted) in fact its proving quite the opposite.

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58 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

 

Growth predicted to come in at approximately 7% this year, partly due to our quick vaccination process, same growth as the States. Forecast upgrade of 1.7 per cent, largest in the G7..

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/imf-lifts-forecast-uk-growth-2021-after-vaccine-roll-out-2021-07-27/

Those IMF projections say that Brexit is holding UK GDP growth back.

 

IMG_20210819_074056.jpg

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1 minute ago, Gnasher said:

Not really, the point is leaving the EU hasn't damaged the building industry (as many predicted) in fact its proving quite the opposite.

How is it "proving quite the opposite"?  

 

The opposite means that Brexit is helping the building industry. There is no evidence of that. There is, however, lots of evidence that the disruption to supply chains (caused by Covid and aggravated by Brexit) is harming the industry. Even your new best buddies at Persimmon admit that supply chains are a problem.

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6 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Ok, point taken on Perrsimion, try another one, 

 

https://www.cityam.com/balfour-beatty-results/

 

 

Balfour Beatty net incomes according to FT financial data:

 

2017 - 168m

2018 - 135m

2019 - 130m

2020 - 30m

 

If they are at 51m now at the midpoint of this year that would merely suggest they are returning to something more in line with their performances over the few years. Almost like it's the business returning to normality after some kind of major drop in the amount of business they did in 2020 for unknown reason?

 

A quick glance on Osiris going back to 2004 also would suggest that as a business it's very cyclical anyway, with rapid growth in profits, then dropping back down and making a loss before picking up again. Which seems to be born out by their historical ROIC, ROE and debt levels. Presumably as they spend out money at the beginning of major projects etc. and then cycle through getting payments for those projects, which is pretty similar to what would happen with us at my former employer where we did fire and vent systems into massive builds. 

 

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4 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

How is it "proving quite the opposite"?  

 

The opposite means that Brexit is helping the building industry. There is no evidence of that. There is, however, lots of evidence that the disruption to supply chains (caused by Covid and aggravated by Brexit) is harming the industry. Even your new best buddies at Persimmon admit that supply chains are a problem.

Disruption to supply chains is indeed harming the industry I'll grant you that, its proving to be a major problem.

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38 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Ok, point taken on Perrsimion, try another one, 

 

https://www.cityam.com/balfour-beatty-results/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you're ascribing these increased profits (for corrupt capitalist pigs, who you have suddenly decided you care about) to Brexit, then surely you have to look at performance since "Brexit Day" at the end of January 2020.

 

The 2021 year-on-year percentage growth figures only look impressive because 2020 was so fucking awful. Are you sure you want to ascribe that to Brexit? (Personally, I think something else might have happened last year that's more relevant to these figures.)

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1 minute ago, Gnasher said:

Disruption to supply chains is indeed harming the industry I'll grant you that, its proving to be a major problem.

In the longer term, do you think that stopping the free movement of goods from the UK's biggest and nearest trading partners will help or hinder supply chains?

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4 minutes ago, Chairman Meow said:

 

Balfour Beatty net incomes according to FT financial data:

 

2017 - 168m

2018 - 135m

2019 - 130m

2020 - 30m

 

If they are at 51m now at the midpoint of this year that would merely suggest they are returning to something more in line with their performances over the few years. Almost like it's the business returning to normality after some kind of major drop in the amount of business they did in 2020 for unknown reason?

 

A quick glance on Osiris going back to 2004 also would suggest that as a business it's very cyclical anyway, with rapid growth in profits, then dropping back down and making a loss before picking up again. Which seems to be born out by their historical ROIC, ROE and debt levels. Presumably as they spend out money at the beginning of major projects etc. and then cycle through getting payments for those projects, which is pretty similar to what would happen with us at my former employer where we did fire and vent systems into massive builds. 

 

The figures above are worthless as Covid stopped a lot of projects during the past 18 month's or so. The main figures are the recent ones and how the industry is responding. You're right on the figures being cyclical though but these results will be undoubtedly viewed as a positive given the recent upheavals through Covid/Brexit..

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5 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

In the longer term, do you think that stopping the free movement of goods from the UK's biggest and nearest trading partners will help or hinder supply chains?

Hinder, it's something our government has once again proved to be fucking useless at and as you say it will harm British firms/profits/jobs if not sorted sharpish. 

 

Like the lorry driver crisis the government were caught napping. 

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19 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

Those IMF projections say that Brexit is holding UK GDP growth back.

 

IMG_20210819_074056.jpg

All countries growth are lower than before the pandemic, the world's staggering back to its feet. 

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23 minutes ago, skend04 said:

No. What's one international company's global results for one year got to do with Brexit?

I know who Balfour Beatty are thanks.

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7 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

The figures above are worthless as Covid stopped a lot of projects during the past 18 month's or so. The main figures are the recent ones and how the industry is responding. You're right on the figures being cyclical though but these results will be undoubtedly viewed as a positive given the recent upheavals through Covid/Brexit..

Well, yes, Covid twatted 2020 output; so any report of an x% increase from 2020 levels has to be understood in that context (and not celebrated as proof of the Sunlit Uplands).

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3 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

All countries growth are lower than before the pandemic, the world's staggering back to its feet. 

A country that chooses to hobble itself will stagger back more slowly, according to your IMF link.

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10 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Hinder, it's something our government has once again proved to be fucking useless at and as you say it will harm British firms/profits/jobs if not sorted sharpish. 

 

Like the lorry driver crisis the government were caught napping. 

They're the right wing of the Tory Party. They were always going to be the ones in charge for this and they're just doing what everyone knows they do.

 

Lexit was always a fantasy.

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2 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

They're the right wing of the Tory Party. They were always going to be the ones in charge for this and they're just doing what everyone knows they do.

 

Lexit was always a fantasy.

Well that's down to our own governments handling of our exit and not the exit itself.

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24 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Well that's down to our own governments handling of our exit and not the exit itself.

It's the same fucking thing. 

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35 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

The figures above are worthless as Covid stopped a lot of projects during the past 18 month's or so. The main figures are the recent ones and how the industry is responding. You're right on the figures being cyclical though but these results will be undoubtedly viewed as a positive given the recent upheavals through Covid/Brexit..

 

The only year that is worthless is 2020. 

 

The previous performance and this years performance are extremely relevant as they show a return to the mean after an unprecedented event in 2020.

 

What is irrelevant is taking last years results and comparing them to this years and declaring them as some proof of Brexit being either a success of otherwise.

 

If I compared 2019 to 2018 and said the decrease was proof that Brexit was a fuck up you'd say I was talking complete bullshit, and you would be completely correct. 2020 is an aberration, the only conclusion that you can take in the positive *warning incoming comments may sound like an approval of rampant capitalism* is that the management of the likes of Balfour Beatty have done a very good job in keeping them in good shape through the last year.

 

I personally made a loss of about 15k due to lack of business in the 20/21 tax year and I've actually only just in the last week gone into profit for this year (a whopping £40 in profit now). This is neither due to me being a business genius, a complete moron or related to Brexit. It's purely because I couldn't work last year as it's pretty tricky to maintain social distancing sitting in a rally car with a customer.

 

And for the record as someone who dealt with the likes of Balfour Beatty and all the other big industry players in the past I hate to credit their management with anything as I fucking hate them and the way they treat the smaller businesses/subs. That's a totally different discussion though. 

 

 

*Disclaimer, how much of that is down to the government paying staff wages etc. in down time would have a significant impact on this also, so there are a lot of other factors at play in arguing this.

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1 minute ago, Chairman Meow said:

 

The only year that is worthless is 2020. 

 

The previous performance and this years performance are extremely relevant as they show a return to the mean after an unprecedented event in 2020.

Is it though? We're still coming out of a pandemic/brexit so results are going to be horrendously hard to gauge. I wasn't really trying to compere profits with previous years more slaying the fallacy that Brexit would destroy profits and shed thousands of jobs, hasn't happened.

1 minute ago, Chairman Meow said:

What is irrelevant is taking last years results and comparing them to this years and declaring them as some proof of Brexit being either a success of otherwise.

 

If I compared 2019 to 2018 and said the decrease was proof that Brexit was a fuck up you'd say I was talking complete bullshit, and you would be completely correct. 2020 is an aberration, the only conclusion that you can take in the positive *warning incoming comments may sound like an approval of rampant capitalism* is that the management of the likes of Balfour Beatty have done a very good job in keeping them in good shape through the last year.

 

I personally made a loss of about 15k due to lack of business in the 20/21 tax year and I've actually only just in the last week gone into profit for this year (a whopping £40 in profit now). This is neither due to me being a business genius, a complete moron or related to Brexit. It's purely because I couldn't work last year as it's pretty tricky to maintain social distancing sitting in a rally car with a customer.

 

And for the record as someone who dealt with the likes of Balfour Beatty and all the other big industry players in the past I hate to credit their management with anything as I fucking hate them and the way they treat the smaller businesses/subs. That's a totally different discussion though. 

I've had the misfortune to deal with them in the recent past also and I feel your pain. The way they treat smaller businesses is exactly as you say. I'm not in any way trying to bull up Balfour Beatty.

 

1 minute ago, Chairman Meow said:

*Disclaimer, how much of that is down to the government paying staff wages etc. in down time would have a significant impact on this also, so there are a lot of other factors at play in arguing 

 

Yeah it's very difficult to form a concrete analysis because as you say, too many variables.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic, I honestly believe if we had a half competent government we could make a success out the situation but alas...

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38 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Well that's down to our own governments handling of our exit and not the exit itself.

Indeed. In the real world, Brexit was always going to end badly for most people, but be lucrative for the disaster capitalists in Government.

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