Should the UK remain a member of the EU

[Gnasher]

4 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

"Normally" would have it as the number one reason.

Yeah maybe I should have made myself clearer but as the main focus of debate has been the correlations between wages and inflation that's the part I was concentrating on. Wage rises (amongst other things like supply shortages and demand for goods etc as you rightly pointed out) have always been a factor when inflation rises, its normally a sign the economy is experiencing demand, they're all inter linked.  

 

Anyway as for inflation itself, slightly rising single digit inflation is nothing to worry about, unless your Keith Joseph or Ted Cruz.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a7c101be-7361-4307-981d-b8edf6d002be

[AngryOfTuebrook]

You really don't give a fuck for low paid workers, do you? Or is it only workers in some sectors who are deserving of your concern?

[Chairman Meow]

4 hours ago, Gnasher said:

 

We are not starting from 0, we do not have 0% inflation, we have an inflation rate of 2.5%, so we already have 2.5% and we've had approximately that rate for some time, we've been living with that rate for some time, so when the rate rises by 1.5 per cent it's a rise of... you guessed it 1.5%.. 

 

I'd love to be your shopkeeper, I'd mark everything up 4%.

You're misunderstanding the maths here I think, yes you are correct that the rate has only increased by 1.5%. However that doesn't mean that prices would increase by 1.5%, 4% inflation for that year means 4% increase that year. 

 

£10 multiplied by 1.025 = £10.25 at a 2.5% inflation rate.

£10 multiplied by 1.04 = £10.40 at a 4% inflation rate.

 

I.e. on a year by year basis @2.5% on an item that costs £10 to start with

Year 1: Item goes to £10.25

Year 2: Item goes to £10.506

Year 3: Item goes to £10.768

If inflation goes to 4 %

Year 4: Item goes to £11.198 (10.768 * 1.04), it does not go up in price by 1.5%, it goes up 4%.

 

The other thing is that the increase compounds as well, so a sustained higher rate of inflation can potentially be way worse, at a rate of 2.5% the price of something would double every 28.8 years. At 4% that drops to the price doubling every 18 years. If you start getting into double digit rates then price increases start to get very bad and if wages don't keep up you have serious problems.

 

At best, unless wage increases are at an equal or higher rate than the rate of inflation people are just having their cost of living increase a bit slower than if they stayed the same.

 

For the record I don't necessarily think inflation is a bad thing, in fact there are arguments for it being a good thing, assuming people wages actually do increase as a result.

 

It always pissed me off when politicians used to use the "real terms" bullshit, claiming people were better off in real terms at a time when my wages stayed totally static year on year while all of my bills increased.

 

I'd also say at this stage nothing can be pinned on being down to Brexit as a result of this, Covid thrown into the mix as well is doing some fucked up things to various markets. It will be years before anyone can definitively say anything good or bad for the economy as a whole as far as leaving the EU is concerned. 

 

A 4% increase this year, in comparison to it being just under 1% last year may not even be anything to worry about and purely an anomaly as a result of lockdown easing and people going a bit mental with spending. 

 

In the areas I work in, used car prices have gone absolutely fucking mental as new cars aren't coming through due to the silicon shortage. PC component prices have done the same, so much so that we've built a new machine for doing fluid/aerodynamic simulations and can't actually use the power of the PC as we can't get a power supply that can run all 64 cores on the processor. 

 

Hotel wise, I suspect the wage rises are very temporary and purely due to the increased demand right now. I look after the bookings system and website for a hotel that a friend of mine owns, he's not increased wages but has had to take on more staff purely because the demand is higher than we've ever seen. Since reopening at the end of full lockdown iirc we've only had the equivalent of about 8 rooms not booked (meaning 8 nights where one room hasn't been booked). We've never seen it like that ever before, and likely never will. It's a one time thing and very temporary. 

 

One definite Brexit problem I have found is selling car parts into Europe. We have probably lost one customer entirely as a result, one customer is borderline and the other is probably OK, but only because we've been dealing with him for about 15 years now.

 

As a final note, as you don't seem to see what he is saying, Angry is not saying he's against pay rises or that they are bad, he is saying that a pay rise at less than the rate of inflation is in effect a wage cut in just the same way that stagnant wages are.

[Gnasher]

17 minutes ago, AngryOfTuebrook said:

You really don't give a fuck for low paid workers, do you? Or is it only workers in some sectors who are deserving of your concern?

??? What the fuck are you on about?  Which ones am I concerned/not concerned with? I'd like all low paid workers in every sector to receive a pay rise.

 

Unfortunately under the UK/ EU low stagnation/low inflation system a lot of these low paid workers haven't received a rise for almost 20 years and now they are receiving rises a lot of people seem upset.

 

[Gnasher]

13 minutes ago, Chairman Meow said:

You're misunderstanding the maths here I think, yes you are correct that the rate has only increased by 1.5%. However that doesn't mean that prices would increase by 1.5%, 4% inflation for that year means 4% increase that year. 

 

£10 multiplied by 1.025 = £10.25 at a 2.5% inflation rate.

£10 multiplied by 1.04 = £10.40 at a 4% inflation rate.

 

I.e. on a year by year basis @2.5% on an item that costs £10 to start with

Year 1: Item goes to £10.25

Year 2: Item goes to £10.506

Year 3: Item goes to £10.768

If inflation goes to 4 %

Year 4: Item goes to £11.198 (10.768 * 1.04), it does not go up in price by 1.5%, it goes up 4%.

 

The other thing is that the increase compounds as well, so a sustained higher rate of inflation can potentially be way worse, at a rate of 2.5% the price of something would double every 28.8 years. At 4% that drops to the price doubling every 18 years. If you start getting into double digit rates then price increases start to get very bad and if wages don't keep up you have serious problems.

 

At best, unless wage increases are at an equal or higher rate than the rate of inflation people are just having their cost of living increase a bit slower than if they stayed the same.

 

For the record I don't necessarily think inflation is a bad thing, in fact there are arguments for it being a good thing, assuming people wages actually do increase as a result.

 

It always pissed me off when politicians used to use the "real terms" bullshit, claiming people were better off in real terms at a time when my wages stayed totally static year on year while all of my bills increased.

 

I'd also say at this stage nothing can be pinned on being down to Brexit as a result of this, Covid thrown into the mix as well is doing some fucked up things to various markets. It will be years before anyone can definitively say anything good or bad for the economy as a whole as far as leaving the EU is concerned. 

 

A 4% increase this year, in comparison to it being just under 1% last year may not even be anything to worry about and purely an anomaly as a result of lockdown easing and people going a bit mental with spending. 

 

In the areas I work in, used car prices have gone absolutely fucking mental as new cars aren't coming through due to the silicon shortage. PC component prices have done the same, so much so that we've built a new machine for doing fluid/aerodynamic simulations and can't actually use the power of the PC as we can't get a power supply that can run all 64 cores on the processor. 

 

Hotel wise, I suspect the wage rises are very temporary and purely due to the increased demand right now. I look after the bookings system and website for a hotel that a friend of mine owns, he's not increased wages but has had to take on more staff purely because the demand is higher than we've ever seen. Since reopening at the end of full lockdown iirc we've only had the equivalent of about 8 rooms not booked. We've never seen it like that ever before, and likely never will. It's a one time thing and very temporary. 

 

One definite Brexit problem I have found is selling car parts into Europe. We have probably lost one customer entirely as a result, one customer is borderline and the other is probably OK, but only because we've been dealing with him for about 15 years now.

 

As a final note, as you don't seem to see what he is saying, Angry is not saying he's against pay rises of that they are bad, he is saying that a pay rise at less than the rate of inflation is in effect a wage cut in just the same way that stagnant wages are.

I understand what you're saying but can I just clarify on 4% is 4% this year, yes it is but inflation has not only just been invented, ie we've had a level of inflation in all the previous years so the 4% is not an almighty shock, we had and lived with an inflation rate of 2.5 the previous year's, it's as you say, a 1.5 increase on the year before when everyone also payed that years interest of 2.5% so although you'll pay the 4% the rise you'll feel is only 1.5.... which is what I tried to explain to Angry.

 

Edit, as for Angry and the pay rises, I've explained above a building site labourer receiving an 8% pay rise is still up after inflation going up to 4% especially compared to the year before where he received no pay rise but still had to contend with 2.5% inflation.

 

As for the staffing shortages/pay rises being temporary, who knows? I'd guess some will but a lot won't.

[Dr Nowt]

[Gnasher]

8 minutes ago, Dr Nowt said:

Why don't you just fuvk off? You're nothing special chump.

[Dr Nowt]

‘Ooooh, the primary school times table boys are in’.

[Dr Nowt]

‘You privileged little cunt, going to a pre-school where they taught you how to add up on your fingers. Fucking luvvies’.

[Gnasher]

2 minutes ago, Dr Nowt said:

‘Ooooh, the primary school times table boys are in’.

My cousin knows you Ben, you're nothing special.

[Gnasher]

Just now, Dr Nowt said:

‘You privileged little cunt, going to a pre-school where they taught you how to add up on your fingers. Fucking luvvies’.

You're just a coward.

[Dr Nowt]

1 minute ago, Gnasher said:

My cousin knows you Ben, you're nothing special.

Fascinating, I’m sure. Give her my regards and tell her I’m sorry it’s only thimble-sized.

[Dr Nowt]

Just now, Gnasher said:

You're just a coward.

Ah, we’re doing that thing again where we can just ascribe whatever we want to someone. How was wanking off Dobbin?

[Dr Nowt]

Anyway, off out for the night mate, so when you’ve finished blowing horses, ask your cousin to introduce you to your early times tables. She’ll know them if she’s older than about 5.

[Chairman Meow]

3 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

My cousin knows you Ben, you're nothing special.

 

Can we all take a moment to appreciate the quality of this as an insult.

 

It's no "are you from Wigan you wanker", but it's still pretty damn good. 

[Gnasher]

8 minutes ago, Dr Nowt said:

Anyway, off out for the night mate, so when you’ve finished blowing horses, ask your cousin to introduce you to your early times tables. She’ll know them if she’s older than about 5.

Aww nighty night Ben, at least you tried, give my regards to mumsey.

[Bjornebye]

16 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

My cousin knows you Ben, you're nothing special.

I know Ben and he is a pretty special human being. A gem of a fella in real life. That said, I haven’t let him fuck me unlike your cousin has so she may know something I don’t. 

[Bruce Spanner]

How can you lose if you don't realise you're beaten?

 

It's almost the perfect psychological survival mechanism of the perennially stupid.

 

Fascinating to see in the wild.

[Gnasher]

1 minute ago, Bjornebye said:

I know Ben and he is a pretty special human being. A gem of a fella in real life. That said, I haven’t let him fuck me unlike your cousin has so she may know something I don’t. 

You're probably right, he probably is a top fella but his Internet clever cunt act gets fucking tiresome. 

 

As for your other quip, do one.

[Gnasher]

4 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

How can you lose if you don't realise you're beaten?

 

It's almost the perfect psychological survival mechanism of the perennially stupid.

 

Fascinating to see in the wild.

You should know.

[Gnasher]

Next one for the pile on?

[Dr Nowt]

2 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

Next one for the pile on?

Are we still talking about your cousin?

[Bruce Spanner]

5 minutes ago, Gnasher said:

You should know.

 

Yeah, I was watching it, that was the point.

 

C'mon, G, I haven't taken you off ignore for the night for this weak shit.

 

Up your game.

[Gnasher]

3 minutes ago, Dr Nowt said:

Are we still talking about your cousin?

No your mother.

[Gnasher]

4 minutes ago, Bruce Spanner said:

 

Yeah, I was watching it, that was the point.

 

C'mon, G, I haven't taken you off ignore for the night for this weak shit.

 

Up your game.

OK I'll try.