Quantcast
Should the UK remain a member of the EU - Page 1223 - GF - General Forum - The Liverpool Way Jump to content
Anny Road

Should the UK remain a member of the EU

  

300 members have voted

  1. 1. Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    • Yes
      243
    • No
      57


Recommended Posts

Just now, Denny Crane said:

There will be a high turnover of MPs don't forget. Labour will find it difficult to get anyone as strange as Kate Hoey who won't be running on a Labour ticket. Then you have MPs stepping down and oddballs independents like Woodcock and Gapes. Flipside is the new intake of Tory MPs might be young Bill Cashes. 

Yeah, the newer Tories will be extreme in comparison to what they have now. They'll have been attracted to the party during this slide further to the right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Pistonbroke said:

The Lib Dems surely wouldn't jump into bed with them again due to the varying stances on Brexit. 

The LibDems will jump at the first opportunity to get into bed with the Tories especially with Swinson in charge.

  • Upvote 1
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Denny Crane said:

Flipside is the new intake of Tory MPs might be young Bill Cashes. 

Is that even a possibility? I thought all of those cunts were born aged 65 with chips on both shoulders and more than a hint of casual racism!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I heard someone say all young Conservatives politicians and those interested are bordering on psychopaths they just get better at hiding it. There is definitely some truth to that. Bercow was part of the hang Mandela mob in his youth. There is a reason why even in 2019 Tory youth clubs talk about genetics and dress up as nazis for fun. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dougie Do'ins said:

My gut feeling is the tories will walk it.

I don't see how that happens. I think they will lose seats in Scotland and I think the LibDems will take a lot of seats of them in the areas they used to be strong. If the brexit party stand, it's even harder for the Tories in those seats as it'll split the right wing vote. 

11 minutes ago, Pistonbroke said:

 

The Tories are fucked if they don't get a majority though, they won't be able to bribe the DUP anymore (although you never know with those crazy cunts). The Lib Dems surely wouldn't jump into bed with them again due to the varying stances on Brexit, it would be political suicide on their behalf. I also can't see the Tories going into a coalition with the Brexit party. If it's a hung parliament I can see labour having a better chance of forming a coalition, plus who knows, a GE might throw up a surprise labour majority, the only bullet the Tories have in their gun is the Brexit bullet. 

Yeah, I agree with you. I'm not saying I think the Tories will be able to form a government, I'm just saying I think they'll be the party with the most seats. But you do have to remember, if brexit is done, they will find a way to get the dup onside, because working with labour is not something the dup will go near, that would be like supporting SF to them. 

 

I think we're going to get stuck in a real no man's land. I don't think Swanson will go with the Tories, but I think she'll see supporting a Jeremy Corbyn government just as bad and of there's no single party can govern, she'll likely want to hold her seats should there be another GE as there's every chance labour would do that with a new leader. Unless labour can cobble together a majority with the SNP, greens and PC, I don't see anyone finding a way to govern. 

 

I don't think the brexit party will win a seat either, but they'll do enough to destroy the Tory vote. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Tory vote gets split in 3

 

  1. No Deal Tory - votes Brexit Party
  2. Leave Tory - votes Tory
  3. Remain Tory - votes Lib Dem

The Labour Party will be split in 3

 

  1. No Deal Labour - votes Brexit Party
  2. Staunch Remainer - votes Lib Dem
  3. Everyone else - votes Labour

You could end up with a four party system in the short term!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, clangers said:

The LibDems will jump at the first opportunity to get into bed with the Tories especially with Swinson in charge.

 

No chance mate, especially as any campaigning the Lib Dems do will be mainly centred around staying in the EU. They are only interested in winning seats, and indeed the voters back who they shat on the last time. It would be political suicide, as I've already mentioned. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, clangers said:

The LibDems will jump at the first opportunity to get into bed with the Tories especially with Swinson in charge.

This is my fear also.

 

Its quite telling that they ruled out working with Gordon Brown and Ed Milliband but were happy to form a government with Cameron. They have ruled out working with Corbyn, but haven't ruled out working with Boris Johnson. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Pistonbroke said:

If the extension until the 31st January is granted and a GE follows does anybody think this will resolve anything? 

 

The Lib Dems will be happy, as they are only interested in gaining seats, which they most certainly will, and in doing so be a major player should a coalition be needed. The Brexit party will do well, especially when the knuckle draggers start screaming for a No Deal Brexit. Obviously the two main parties will suffer and I doubt either will have enough seats to govern outright. Any election would probably have to take place early December which is not enough time for canvasing etc, it will be in affect nothing more than a second referendum on Brexit but with a vote spread about instead of just a clear yes/no option. Of course, if No Deal isn't taken off the table completely then there probably won't be an election. 

No; only in the event of a tory majority where they will leave or a set of circumstances that sees article 50 revoked. 

 

I can only see a hung parliament of an unidentified flavour although the parliamentary arithmetic will move around as the inevitable number of mp's turnover.  Tusk would really need to give a fifteen month extension until the end of 2020 as the election will take up everything until Christmas. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Swinson seems to be attacking Labour constantly presumably trying to get ex-Labour remainer voters on board , but the analysis of the overall voting picture shows that there are a very small number of marginal constituencies where Labour & Lib Dems are the two top polling parties. The vast majority of Lib Dem possibilities are where they are in a two-horse race with the Tories. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, MegadriveMan said:

How are they going to win more seats than they have now though?

I don't know mate. As I said, just a gut feeling.

4 hours ago, moof said:

If all the pessimistic people actually got out there and started to make the case for labour, they would have a better chance of winning this shit

What people and how are they to make the case ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sir roger said:

Swinson seems to be attacking Labour constantly presumably trying to get ex-Labour remainer voters on board , but the analysis of the overall voting picture shows that there are a very small number of marginal constituencies where Labour & Lib Dems are the two top polling parties. The vast majority of Lib Dem possibilities are where they are in a two-horse race with the Tories. 

Of their top 40 target seats, just five are held by Labour. Three are held by the SNP, one by Plaid Cymru and the other 31 are all Tory seats.

 

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

 

I think attacking Labour is actually done with Tory remainers in mind. I’d imagine their polling people are telling them they won’t get those votes if there’s any prospect of the Lib Dems going into a coalition with Labour. They’ll be going all out to get Tory remainer votes in London and the rest of the south.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, clangers said:

The LibDems will jump at the first opportunity to get into bed with the Tories especially with Swinson in charge.

I wonder if Stronts negged this before or after the Lib Dems abstained en bloc to allow the Tories to defeat Labour’s motion calling for an end to NHS privatisation. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Spy Bee said:

The Tory vote gets split in 3

 

  1. No Deal Tory - votes Brexit Party
  2. Leave Tory - votes Tory
  3. Remain Tory - votes Lib Dem

The Labour Party will be split in 3

 

  1. No Deal Labour - votes Brexit Party
  2. Staunch Remainer - votes Lib Dem
  3. Everyone else - votes Labour

You could end up with a four party system in the short term!

Is there really such a thing as "No Deal Labour"? Also, I'm not convinced that the "Staunch Remainers" can't be persuaded to vote for the only party that could deliver a new referendum. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brexit will obviously be a huge factor but an election is not a referendum & Labour's performance will hinge on them widening the debate on to what I anticipate to be an excellent manifesto.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

Is there really such a thing as "No Deal Labour"? Also, I'm not convinced that the "Staunch Remainers" can't be persuaded to vote for the only party that could deliver a new referendum. 

No staunch remainer who doesn't vote labour today will so in the next election. The exceptions are in a constituency where labour has a chance from taking the seat from the tories and people will vote on an any one but the Tories ticket. Labours brexit policy I don't see winning anyone at all. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apparently, according to the Twitterati, there probably won't be an early election as a significant amount of Labour MPs will vote against it for numerous reasons including they want Johnson to stew, they think Corbyn is a bigger issue than Brexit and don't want to go into an election with him as leader and they'd prefer to hang on until January as they think that the EHRC investigation could finish Corbyn off and they could go into an election with a new party leader. 

 

If accurate, you can always rely on the right/not left wing of the PLP to help get the Tories out of any shit they might be in. 

 

If they vote against an election, if whipped to vote in favour, they all need kicking out of the party. Immediately. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

I wonder if Stronts negged this before or after the Lib Dems abstained en bloc to allow the Tories to defeat Labour’s motion calling for an end to NHS privatisation. 

You won't hear from him about it. Disappears when they are cunts. Preaches when Labour fart in the wind. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Nelly-Torres said:

Apparently, according to the Twitterati, there probably won't be an early election as a significant amount of Labour MPs will vote against it for numerous reasons including they want Johnson to stew, they think Corbyn is a bigger issue than Brexit and don't want to go into an election with him as leader and they'd prefer to hang on until January as they think that the EHRC investigation could finish Corbyn off and they could go into an election with a new party leader. 

 

If accurate, you can always rely on the right/not left wing of the PLP to help get the Tories out of any shit they might be in. 

 

If they vote against an election, if whipped to vote in favour, they all need kicking out of the party. Immediately. 

I feel certain no matter the outcome of the EHRC investigation , Corbyn will just shrug his shoulders and carry on. Corbyn will only lose the labour leadership if he loses another GE or someone chooses to take him down. I don't think the centrists in the PLP have the balls to do that after what happened last time and the relative success despite the defeat at the last GE. So it would take someone from the left to do it and I'm not sure there's anyone ambitious enough (I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but just a reality)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Nelly-Torres said:

Apparently, according to the Twitterati, there probably won't be an early election as a significant amount of Labour MPs will vote against it for numerous reasons including they want Johnson to stew, they think Corbyn is a bigger issue than Brexit and don't want to go into an election with him as leader and they'd prefer to hang on until January as they think that the EHRC investigation could finish Corbyn off and they could go into an election with a new party leader. 


They won’t have the numbers. If the other opposition parties vote for an early election then they’d only need about a third of Labour MPs to vote for it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there not a lot of Labour constituencies that voted to leave. If the next election become an in or out election surely they're are at risk of voting Tory. There's working class people actually worshipping Boris, reece mogg, gove, IDS. That's how fucked up some people are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

Is there not a lot of Labour constituencies that voted to leave. If the next election become an in or out election surely they're are at risk of voting Tory. There's working class people actually worshipping Boris, reece mogg, gove, IDS. That's how fucked up some people are.

 

Around 60% of Labour seats were pro leave. Labour can't win an election without keeping and adding leave voters. Thankfully the majority of leave voters are not the parody that end up on Question time or foaming at the mouth on social media but just fed up with politicians as a whole. 

 

According to these estimates, around 75% of constituencies that were won by the Conservatives in the 2017 general election voted to Leave, while around 61% of Labour constituencies voted to Leave. All seats won by the Scottish National Party and the Green Party, and a majority of the seats won by the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru, voted to Remain.

 

These estimates show that while the national result of the referendum was relatively close, with 52% voting Leave and 48% voting Remain, a much larger majority of parliamentary seats voted to Leave – with 64% of seats in Great Britain voting Leave. (This is likely due to the uneven distribution of Remain voters, who tended to cluster in large cities, while Leave voters were more evenly spread.)

 

https://fullfact.org/europe/did-majority-conservative-and-labour-constituencies-vote-leave-eu-referendum/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×