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Should the UK remain a member of the EU


Anny Road
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317 members have voted

  1. 1. Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    • Yes
      259
    • No
      58


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The Tory vote gets split in 3

 

  1. No Deal Tory - votes Brexit Party
  2. Leave Tory - votes Tory
  3. Remain Tory - votes Lib Dem

The Labour Party will be split in 3

 

  1. No Deal Labour - votes Brexit Party
  2. Staunch Remainer - votes Lib Dem
  3. Everyone else - votes Labour

You could end up with a four party system in the short term!

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Guest Pistonbroke
47 minutes ago, clangers said:

The LibDems will jump at the first opportunity to get into bed with the Tories especially with Swinson in charge.

 

No chance mate, especially as any campaigning the Lib Dems do will be mainly centred around staying in the EU. They are only interested in winning seats, and indeed the voters back who they shat on the last time. It would be political suicide, as I've already mentioned. 

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1 hour ago, clangers said:

The LibDems will jump at the first opportunity to get into bed with the Tories especially with Swinson in charge.

This is my fear also.

 

Its quite telling that they ruled out working with Gordon Brown and Ed Milliband but were happy to form a government with Cameron. They have ruled out working with Corbyn, but haven't ruled out working with Boris Johnson. 

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8 hours ago, Pistonbroke said:

If the extension until the 31st January is granted and a GE follows does anybody think this will resolve anything? 

 

The Lib Dems will be happy, as they are only interested in gaining seats, which they most certainly will, and in doing so be a major player should a coalition be needed. The Brexit party will do well, especially when the knuckle draggers start screaming for a No Deal Brexit. Obviously the two main parties will suffer and I doubt either will have enough seats to govern outright. Any election would probably have to take place early December which is not enough time for canvasing etc, it will be in affect nothing more than a second referendum on Brexit but with a vote spread about instead of just a clear yes/no option. Of course, if No Deal isn't taken off the table completely then there probably won't be an election. 

No; only in the event of a tory majority where they will leave or a set of circumstances that sees article 50 revoked. 

 

I can only see a hung parliament of an unidentified flavour although the parliamentary arithmetic will move around as the inevitable number of mp's turnover.  Tusk would really need to give a fifteen month extension until the end of 2020 as the election will take up everything until Christmas. 

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Swinson seems to be attacking Labour constantly presumably trying to get ex-Labour remainer voters on board , but the analysis of the overall voting picture shows that there are a very small number of marginal constituencies where Labour & Lib Dems are the two top polling parties. The vast majority of Lib Dem possibilities are where they are in a two-horse race with the Tories. 

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5 hours ago, MegadriveMan said:

How are they going to win more seats than they have now though?

I don't know mate. As I said, just a gut feeling.

4 hours ago, moof said:

If all the pessimistic people actually got out there and started to make the case for labour, they would have a better chance of winning this shit

What people and how are they to make the case ?

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1 hour ago, sir roger said:

Swinson seems to be attacking Labour constantly presumably trying to get ex-Labour remainer voters on board , but the analysis of the overall voting picture shows that there are a very small number of marginal constituencies where Labour & Lib Dems are the two top polling parties. The vast majority of Lib Dem possibilities are where they are in a two-horse race with the Tories. 

Of their top 40 target seats, just five are held by Labour. Three are held by the SNP, one by Plaid Cymru and the other 31 are all Tory seats.

 

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

 

I think attacking Labour is actually done with Tory remainers in mind. I’d imagine their polling people are telling them they won’t get those votes if there’s any prospect of the Lib Dems going into a coalition with Labour. They’ll be going all out to get Tory remainer votes in London and the rest of the south.

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5 hours ago, clangers said:

The LibDems will jump at the first opportunity to get into bed with the Tories especially with Swinson in charge.

I wonder if Stronts negged this before or after the Lib Dems abstained en bloc to allow the Tories to defeat Labour’s motion calling for an end to NHS privatisation. 

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5 hours ago, Spy Bee said:

The Tory vote gets split in 3

 

  1. No Deal Tory - votes Brexit Party
  2. Leave Tory - votes Tory
  3. Remain Tory - votes Lib Dem

The Labour Party will be split in 3

 

  1. No Deal Labour - votes Brexit Party
  2. Staunch Remainer - votes Lib Dem
  3. Everyone else - votes Labour

You could end up with a four party system in the short term!

Is there really such a thing as "No Deal Labour"? Also, I'm not convinced that the "Staunch Remainers" can't be persuaded to vote for the only party that could deliver a new referendum. 

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1 minute ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

Is there really such a thing as "No Deal Labour"? Also, I'm not convinced that the "Staunch Remainers" can't be persuaded to vote for the only party that could deliver a new referendum. 

No staunch remainer who doesn't vote labour today will so in the next election. The exceptions are in a constituency where labour has a chance from taking the seat from the tories and people will vote on an any one but the Tories ticket. Labours brexit policy I don't see winning anyone at all. 

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Apparently, according to the Twitterati, there probably won't be an early election as a significant amount of Labour MPs will vote against it for numerous reasons including they want Johnson to stew, they think Corbyn is a bigger issue than Brexit and don't want to go into an election with him as leader and they'd prefer to hang on until January as they think that the EHRC investigation could finish Corbyn off and they could go into an election with a new party leader. 

 

If accurate, you can always rely on the right/not left wing of the PLP to help get the Tories out of any shit they might be in. 

 

If they vote against an election, if whipped to vote in favour, they all need kicking out of the party. Immediately. 

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57 minutes ago, AngryofTuebrook said:

I wonder if Stronts negged this before or after the Lib Dems abstained en bloc to allow the Tories to defeat Labour’s motion calling for an end to NHS privatisation. 

You won't hear from him about it. Disappears when they are cunts. Preaches when Labour fart in the wind. 

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53 minutes ago, Nelly-Torres said:

Apparently, according to the Twitterati, there probably won't be an early election as a significant amount of Labour MPs will vote against it for numerous reasons including they want Johnson to stew, they think Corbyn is a bigger issue than Brexit and don't want to go into an election with him as leader and they'd prefer to hang on until January as they think that the EHRC investigation could finish Corbyn off and they could go into an election with a new party leader. 

 

If accurate, you can always rely on the right/not left wing of the PLP to help get the Tories out of any shit they might be in. 

 

If they vote against an election, if whipped to vote in favour, they all need kicking out of the party. Immediately. 

I feel certain no matter the outcome of the EHRC investigation , Corbyn will just shrug his shoulders and carry on. Corbyn will only lose the labour leadership if he loses another GE or someone chooses to take him down. I don't think the centrists in the PLP have the balls to do that after what happened last time and the relative success despite the defeat at the last GE. So it would take someone from the left to do it and I'm not sure there's anyone ambitious enough (I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but just a reality)

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4 hours ago, Nelly-Torres said:

Apparently, according to the Twitterati, there probably won't be an early election as a significant amount of Labour MPs will vote against it for numerous reasons including they want Johnson to stew, they think Corbyn is a bigger issue than Brexit and don't want to go into an election with him as leader and they'd prefer to hang on until January as they think that the EHRC investigation could finish Corbyn off and they could go into an election with a new party leader. 


They won’t have the numbers. If the other opposition parties vote for an early election then they’d only need about a third of Labour MPs to vote for it.

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1 hour ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

Is there not a lot of Labour constituencies that voted to leave. If the next election become an in or out election surely they're are at risk of voting Tory. There's working class people actually worshipping Boris, reece mogg, gove, IDS. That's how fucked up some people are.

 

Around 60% of Labour seats were pro leave. Labour can't win an election without keeping and adding leave voters. Thankfully the majority of leave voters are not the parody that end up on Question time or foaming at the mouth on social media but just fed up with politicians as a whole. 

 

According to these estimates, around 75% of constituencies that were won by the Conservatives in the 2017 general election voted to Leave, while around 61% of Labour constituencies voted to Leave. All seats won by the Scottish National Party and the Green Party, and a majority of the seats won by the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru, voted to Remain.

 

These estimates show that while the national result of the referendum was relatively close, with 52% voting Leave and 48% voting Remain, a much larger majority of parliamentary seats voted to Leave – with 64% of seats in Great Britain voting Leave. (This is likely due to the uneven distribution of Remain voters, who tended to cluster in large cities, while Leave voters were more evenly spread.)

 

https://fullfact.org/europe/did-majority-conservative-and-labour-constituencies-vote-leave-eu-referendum/

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Even though the election will be about Brexit. The Johnson deal and the Lib Dems appointing  a former austerity minister for slashing employment rights will come back to haunt them. Workers rights, healthcare, privatisation, the environment and education should dominate the election most are entwined within Johnsons Brexit deal. 

 

Things like Johnson wants to slash your annual holiday to ten days but now former employment minister in the coalition government wants your vote she claims to be on the opposite side etc.

 

 

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Gotta love the Sensible pundits finally waking up to the fact that uncritical regurgitation of premium grade bullshit from Tory 'sources' may be a problem. Only taken the useless cunts a couple of years.

 

It's been a bit of enlightenment in recent weeks, actually, with the likes of Dunty et al also realising that Anna Soubry and co standing up in Parliament and demanding a people's vote won't actually result in one, and a general election is probably what's needed first.

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