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Should the UK remain a member of the EU


Anny Road
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317 members have voted

  1. 1. Should the UK remain a member of the EU

    • Yes
      259
    • No
      58


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Guest Pistonbroke
6 minutes ago, Anubis said:


This is how the ERG have been bought off. There is a suspicion (see David Gauke and his reasons for voting for Letwin’s amendment) that the government have no intention of negotiating a free trade agreement and will happily crash out in 2020 on WTO rules, which is effectively no deal.

 

It wouldn't be the biggest surprise.  

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Seen this on the Guardian and it’s something I’ve been saying for a while. Just because you’re a Labour MP in a leave constituency doesn’t mean the majority of leave voters are Labour voters. The majority of Labour voters will still be remain.

 

With regards to it just being a ‘handful’ of Labour MPs who could push this over the line, the response of the leadership/NEC to the people who vote for the deal will dictate things for me. If they withdraw the whip of anyone voting for it and stop them standing for Labour at the next election then fine, there isn’t much they can do. If (as I suspect) they do fuck all to anyone voting for it then I’ll be resigning my membership and I won’t vote for them again. 
 

 

 

Why, even in leave constituencies, most Labour support comes from remainers

On the World at One Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, said he thought Labour MPs in seats that voted leave might want to back the PM’s Brexit deal. He said:

There are Labour MPs in seats that voted 60, 70% to leave and they will, of their own volition, regardless of anything I could say to them, be thinking about how do they best represent their own voters. 

In fact new research from the British Election Study, which studies voting behaviour in considerable detail through an extensive database going back years, suggests that Rees-Mogg is wrong. Even in constituencies that voted leave in 2016 by large majorities, the people voting Labour are predominantly remain supporters, the research found.

Here is an extract from Ed Fieldhouse’s write-up for the British Election Study website. (I have highlighted some of the highlights in bold)

First, while 68% of Labour voters voted to remain in the EU in 2016, what about voters in those seats which voted to Leave the EU? Dividing countries in to leave and remain seats and subdividing by the 2017 winner, the BES data shows that in Labour seats where there was a leave majority, 60% of Labour voters voted to remain in 2016 compared to 76% in remain seats. In other words while unsurprisingly there were more Labour leave voters in leave seats, on average there was still a substantial remain majority. Even in those with a leave vote of greater than 60%, a clear majority (57%) of Labour voters voted remain in 2016.

 

Of course, Labour is not looking to win only the votes of those who supported them in 2017, and some people have changed their Brexit preferences since 2016. Rather than focus on 2017 vote and 2016 EU referendum vote we can use the BES to look at the Brexit preferences of all potential Labour voters in May 2019. We defined respondents who scored Labour on a like-dislike scale at least 5 on a 0-10 scale as potential supporters, making up 46% of all respondents that said they would vote and had decided how to vote.

 

Overall 70% of these potential Labour voters said they would vote to remain in the EU, with only 21% preferring to leave, with the rest saying they ‘don’t know’ or ‘would not vote’ in another referendum. In leave constituencies these figures change only slightly to 65% and 25% respectively. When we narrow this down to Labour seats we see little evidence to suggest that Labour MPs in leave constituencies who are concerned about their re-election prospects need worry more about alienating leave voters than remain voters. In Labour held sets with a leave majority the figures are almost identical: 64% remain and 25% leave. Even in strong leave Labour seats (where leave vote exceeded 60%) the number of potential Labour voters who would vote remain (62%) is more than twice the number who would vote Leave (26%).

Fieldhouse says the view expressed by Rees-Mogg (also shared by some Labour MPs, who worry that a remain stance will cost them votes in leave areas) is what social scientists call “an ecological fallacy”. Fieldhouse explains: “Just because Labour voters disproportionately live in leave areas doesn’t mean that they are more likely to be Leave voters themselves.”

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4 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

Seen this on the Guardian and it’s something I’ve been saying for a while. Just because you’re a Labour MP in a leave constituency doesn’t mean the majority of leave voters are Labour voters. The majority of Labour voters will still be remain.

 

With regards to it just being a ‘handful’ of Labour MPs who could push this over the line, the response of the leadership/NEC to the people who vote for the deal will dictate things for me. If they withdraw the whip of anyone voting for it and stop them standing for Labour at the next election then fine, there isn’t much they can do. If (as I suspect) they do fuck all to anyone voting for it then I’ll be resigning my membership and I won’t vote for them again. 
 

 

 

Why, even in leave constituencies, most Labour support comes from remainers

On the World at One Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, said he thought Labour MPs in seats that voted leave might want to back the PM’s Brexit deal. He said:

There are Labour MPs in seats that voted 60, 70% to leave and they will, of their own volition, regardless of anything I could say to them, be thinking about how do they best represent their own voters. 

In fact new research from the British Election Study, which studies voting behaviour in considerable detail through an extensive database going back years, suggests that Rees-Mogg is wrong. Even in constituencies that voted leave in 2016 by large majorities, the people voting Labour are predominantly remain supporters, the research found.

Here is an extract from Ed Fieldhouse’s write-up for the British Election Study website. (I have highlighted some of the highlights in bold)

First, while 68% of Labour voters voted to remain in the EU in 2016, what about voters in those seats which voted to Leave the EU? Dividing countries in to leave and remain seats and subdividing by the 2017 winner, the BES data shows that in Labour seats where there was a leave majority, 60% of Labour voters voted to remain in 2016 compared to 76% in remain seats. In other words while unsurprisingly there were more Labour leave voters in leave seats, on average there was still a substantial remain majority. Even in those with a leave vote of greater than 60%, a clear majority (57%) of Labour voters voted remain in 2016.

 

Of course, Labour is not looking to win only the votes of those who supported them in 2017, and some people have changed their Brexit preferences since 2016. Rather than focus on 2017 vote and 2016 EU referendum vote we can use the BES to look at the Brexit preferences of all potential Labour voters in May 2019. We defined respondents who scored Labour on a like-dislike scale at least 5 on a 0-10 scale as potential supporters, making up 46% of all respondents that said they would vote and had decided how to vote.

 

Overall 70% of these potential Labour voters said they would vote to remain in the EU, with only 21% preferring to leave, with the rest saying they ‘don’t know’ or ‘would not vote’ in another referendum. In leave constituencies these figures change only slightly to 65% and 25% respectively. When we narrow this down to Labour seats we see little evidence to suggest that Labour MPs in leave constituencies who are concerned about their re-election prospects need worry more about alienating leave voters than remain voters. In Labour held sets with a leave majority the figures are almost identical: 64% remain and 25% leave. Even in strong leave Labour seats (where leave vote exceeded 60%) the number of potential Labour voters who would vote remain (62%) is more than twice the number who would vote Leave (26%).

Fieldhouse says the view expressed by Rees-Mogg (also shared by some Labour MPs, who worry that a remain stance will cost them votes in leave areas) is what social scientists call “an ecological fallacy”. Fieldhouse explains: “Just because Labour voters disproportionately live in leave areas doesn’t mean that they are more likely to be Leave voters themselves.”

John Mann was on BBC News earlier trying to justify why he is voting for the deal as a Labour MP. He has somehow managed to be the biggest cunt on my TV this week so far. I've seen his name trending on twitter and it appears he is a self-serving, racist gobshite anyway. I hope Corbyn fucks him right off. 

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Biggest case of cognitive dissonance to state this will prevent you from voting labour ever again. Imagine holding the working class people, disabled, terminally ill, all the victims of austerity, the victims of climate change and wars to account for the actions of a few right wing MPs. If this deal gets passed then it only accelerates the need for a labour government. Not a tantrum vote that amounts to perpetual Tory rule 

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27 minutes ago, moof said:

Biggest case of cognitive dissonance to state this will prevent you from voting labour ever again. Imagine holding the working class people, disabled, terminally ill, all the victims of austerity, the victims of climate change and wars to account for the actions of a few right wing MPs. If this deal gets passed then it only accelerates the need for a labour government. Not a tantrum vote that amounts to perpetual Tory rule 


You’ll note that a lot of these MPs that might vote with the government were big damn Blairite centrist anti-Corbyn heroes not so long ago. You can bash as many lefties, disabled, and poor people as you like. But woe betide you threaten the status quo for the middle class FBPE darlings with their summer barbecues, curry sauce, two point five holidays a year, and jumble sales to fix the church steeple.

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20 minutes ago, moof said:

Biggest case of cognitive dissonance to state this will prevent you from voting labour ever again. Imagine holding the working class people, disabled, terminally ill, all the victims of austerity, the victims of climate change and wars to account for the actions of a few right wing MPs. If this deal gets passed then it only accelerates the need for a labour government. Not a tantrum vote that amounts to perpetual Tory rule 

What bollocks. The first bollocks - utter fucking insulting bollocks on your part - saying not voting Labour is holding disabled, terminally ill, austerity victims and climate change victims to account. What, because I’d vote Green rather than a Labour Party that has achieved the grand total off fuck all for years against a dog shit unpopular Tory party? Yeah, pull the other one. I’d hold the party account for their members of Parliament, not at risk groups. Ridiculous, 

 

Secondly, you want to talk about victims of war and voting labour in the same sentence? Fuck. That. Noise. 
 

If Labour MPs take us out of Europe into a Tory brexit that will be very bad for those people you mentioned, I’ll not lend my vote to make more Labour MPs. I’ll vote for somebody that I actually believe in rather than the serial fucking failures and enablers of shit I don’t want. If that makes me a cunt in your view, I’ll just have to live with that. You think it’s a tantrum? Fine. You want to talk about perpetual Tory rule?! Fucking hell, it is Labour that is causing that, you big fanny. 
 

 

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7 minutes ago, Anubis said:


You’ll note that a lot of these MPs that might vote with the government were big damn Blairite centrist anti-Corbyn heroes not so long ago. You can bash as many lefties, disabled, and poor people as you like. But woe betide you threaten the status quo for the middle class FBPE darlings with their summer barbecues, two point five holidays a year, and jumble sales to fix the church steeple.


That’s not the case for all the MPs though so I don’t see the relevance. Ronnie Campbell and Dennis Skinner have consistently backed the Tories on Brexit. Hardly Blairite centrists are they?

 

As for your comments on FBPE middle class people, pull the other one mate. Brexit is going to impact on poor and disabled people a lot more than it will the middle class.

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4 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

As for your comments on FBPE middle class people, pull the other one mate. Brexit is going to impact on poor and disabled people a lot more than it will the middle class.


Are you sure about that? From what I’ve seen most of them are so disenfranchised they’ve got little left to lose. Did you ever stop to wonder why so many from poor areas voted leave. From what I’ve seen of the FBPE squealers on Twitter and Facebook they’re more concerned with what will happen to their right to travel around the EU, how long they’ll spend at airports, and their ability to buy stuff off Amazon.de. The poor and disabled almost never get a mention.

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15 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

I’ll vote for somebody that I actually believe in rather than the serial fucking failures and enablers of shit I don’t want. If that makes me a cunt in your view, I’ll just have to live with that. You think it’s a tantrum? Fine. You want to talk about perpetual Tory rule?! Fucking hell, it is Labour that is causing that, you big fanny. 
 

 

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Guest Pistonbroke

The saddest thing is that people all over the net are typing such utter shit as 'Finally getting out....fuck the EU... October party...Independence...' blah blah blah.

 

They haven't got a clue about the transition period and the mountain of issues which need sorting out, they truly are a bunch of fucking cretins. A lot of them couldn't give a shit about Politics and haven't got a grasp on the basics of economics. They just follow the Right Wing Rhetoric of laying the blame for anything bad on anyone but a White British male. 
 

I feel really sorry for you lot back in the UK, I fear things will get even nastier when reality dawns on these imbeciles. 

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26 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:

Brexit is going to impact on poor and disabled people a lot more than it will the middle class.

Yeah, it's bad news. Being accused of going against the people that Brexit will fuck over because I don't want to vote for a Party who has members who enabled the Tories - any more than I'd vote for the Lib Dems who enabled them - is a bit close to the fucking knuckle. I was a rape victim accuser supporter yesterday because I wasn't happy to invent something that somebody didn't say, now I'm out to fuck over the terminally ill and the war victims because I don't want to subject those people to a Tory Brexit. Yeah, I'm a real fucker. 

 

'Never' was a stretch because, as somebody rightly replied - and I conceded - that it's a small number and you shouldn't punish the entire party. Fair comment, but how could I vote for a party that I didn't trust not to help the Tories over the line. Fuck that, man. It'd take a long while for Labour to gain my trust back as a party of government, or even a party able to attain government. It's not a tantrum not to vote for Labour when you stop believing in Labour's ability to either stop the Tories or even not to back the fuckers. 

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2 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Yeah, it's bad news. Being accused of going against the people that Brexit will fuck over because I don't want to vote for a Party who has members who enabled the Tories - any more than I'd vote for the Lib Dems who enabled them - is a bit close the the fucking knuckle. I was a rape victim accuser supporter yesterday because I wasn't happy to invent something that somebody didn't say, now I'm out to fuck over the terminally ill and the war victims because I don't want to subject those people to a Tory Brexit. Yeah, I'm a real fucker. 

 

'Never' was a stretch because, as somebody rightly replied - and I conceded - that it's a small number and you shouldn't punish the entire party. Fair comment, but how could I vote for a party that I didn't trust not to help the Tories over the line. Fuck that, man. It'd take a long while for Labour to gain my trust back as a party of government, or even a party able to attain government. It's not a tantrum not to vote for Labour when you stop believing in Labour's ability to either stop the Tories or even not to back the fuckers. 

Who do you vote again? Green party? 

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8 minutes ago, Anubis said:


Are you sure about that? From what I’ve seen most of them are so disenfranchised they’ve got little left to lose. Did you ever stop to wonder why so many from poor areas voted leave. From what I’ve seen of the FBPE squealers on Twitter and Facebook they’re more concerned with what will happen to their right to travel around the EU, how long they’ll spend at airports, and their ability to buy stuff off Amazon.de. The poor and disabled almost never get a mention.


Am I sure it’ll impact the poor more than the middle class? Yes. Very sure. Any cuts that come from Brexit, and they will come, are going to hit poor and disabled people more. Just like all cuts do.
 

As someone who has got skin in the game with a disabled daughter then I can say I’m not really arsed about the motivations of the FBPE brigade. They might be annoying but they are trying to stop Brexit and that’s good enough for me.

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8 minutes ago, Bjornebye said:

Who do you vote again? Green party? 

Don’t think I ever voted Green in my life. I generally vote for the party that most likely if either winning the seat ahead of the Tories or the party that will most closely challenge them. Depending on where I’ve been living at the time, that’s either Labour or Lib Dem down the years. 
 

However, Green are, according to those ‘which party should you vote for’ quizzes based on the policies and manifestos, the  party I’m closest to. So if I’m going to waste my vote, I figure I might as well waste my vote on a party that 1) wont damage anything 2) have a decent overall agenda. 

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2 minutes ago, Numero Veinticinco said:

Don’t think I ever voted Green in my life. I generally vote for the party that most likely if either winning the seat ahead of the Tories or the party that will most closely challenge them. Depending on where I’ve been living at the time, that’s either Labour or Lib Dem down the years. 
 

However, Green are, according to those ‘which party should you vote for’ quizzes based on the policies and manifestos, the  party I’m closest to. So if I’m going to waste my vote, I figure I might as well waste my vote on a party that 1) wont damage anything 2) have a decent overall agenda. 

Oh. Im surprised at that response given your last few posts on this thread. Or am I? I'm not sure.

 

I think you need to take a bit of a step back though. 

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Guest Pistonbroke
6 minutes ago, Sugar Ape said:


Am I sure it’ll impact the poor more than the middle class? Yes. Very sure. Any cuts that come from Brexit, and they will come, are going to hit poor and disabled people more. Just like all cuts do.
 

As someone who has got skin in the game with a disabled daughter then I can say I’m not really arsed about the motivations of the FBPE brigade. They might be annoying but they are trying to stop Brexit and that’s good enough for me.

 

It goes without saying that the poor suffer the most impact due to Austerity/cuts, but they are pretty much at rock bottom now, only so far you can go before the cornered dog bites you. The cuts needed due to Brexit could and probably will be the middle class becoming a target for the Tories. Once an election is out of the way mind. The Tories don#t see the poor voting for them, so they couldn't give a fuck about them. Not much more to take away though, so it would be natural progression to target the next class, the fuckers will only be thinking about the next 5 years if they were to win an election and have to see Brexit through to the end, they can line their pockets and that of their mates and then just fuck off to pastures new. I doubt many of the current bunch at the top give a flying fuck about the future of their own party. 

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