Should the UK remain a member of the EU

[Mudface]

 

Just now, Jenson said:

I think it's all leading towards a long extension and general election myself.

Hope so. There was a report in the Guardian this morning that she's not considering other options due to the possible effect on the Tory party, hence her determination to follow the advice of a 3 year old opinion poll, never mind the likely effects on the country as a whole.

[Anubis]

1 hour ago, Mudface said:

I often wonder what would have happened if Brown had called an election soon after he took over from Blair at the back end of 2007.

 

He seemed to wimp out because Cameron went on the offensive about 'death taxes' at the Tory party conference, and never really recovered. If he had called it and won, we'd still have had the credit crunch, but he would have had a couple more years to deal with it. I'm certain he would have made a better fist of it than Osbourne did and we wouldn't had the damaging austerity measures that prick gleefully introduced.

The sad thing for Brown was that he had the numbers on his side just after taking over. When he delayed he got fucked up by the credit crunch. 

[Mudface]

8 minutes ago, Anubis said:

The sad thing for Brown was that he had the numbers on his side just after taking over. When he delayed he got fucked up by the credit crunch. 

Yeah, he was comfortably ahead in the polls, getting a bounce as people were relieved at Blair going. There were strong rumours that he was going to call an election in late 2007, and when that didn't materialise he was accused of bottling it.

[1892-LFCWasBorn]

47 minutes ago, Jenson said:

I think it's all leading towards a long extension and general election myself.

Can't see it. There won't be another referendum either.

 

Common Market 2.0 will be the preferred choice tomorrow. The EU have stated they will be open to this and there will be unbearable pressure on May to accept this.

[Scooby Dudek]

Mogg, the great man of principle, has now said he will support MV3. 

 

May has stubbornly walked into a blind alley, desperate to keep her party together, and her tactic of black mailing parliament to vote for a deal no one wants may well succeed. 

 

[SasaS]

12 minutes ago, Scooby Dudek said:

Mogg, the great man of principle, has now said he will support MV3. 

 

May has stubbornly walked into a blind alley, desperate to keep her party together, and her tactic of black mailing parliament to vote for a deal no one wants may well succeed. 

 

 

I said it before, but I really don't understand the ERG's tactics, other than trying to oust May. It was never very likely there would be no-deal and it is now almost impossible. Therefore their best possible outcome is to accept May's deal. Maybe her stubbornness stems from knowing that.

[No2]

Rees Mogg referred to May's deal about 20 times in his speech. The gas thing is this isn't May's deal, this is the EU's deal. The EU have given nothing since day one, in the end they will benefit most. They will get all the goodies that come with partnering the UK and have none of the nonsense they have had to listen to for 20 years.

 

All those Brexiteers have done a great job in fucking up their country in exchange for a black passport.

[Numero Veinticinco]

14 minutes ago, No2 said:

Rees Mogg referred to May's deal about 20 times in his speech. The gas thing is this isn't May's deal, this is the EU's deal. The EU have given nothing since day one, in the end they will benefit most. They will get all the goodies that come with partnering the UK and have none of the nonsense they have had to listen to for 20 years.

 

All those Brexiteers have done a great job in fucking up their country in exchange for a black passport.

Disagree. It's the deal that we could get with May's preconditions and red-lines that she had to appease cunts. 

[Anubis]

May addressing the 1922 Committee at 5pm tomorrow. Suggestions she’ll set a firm date to stand down so that MPs will get behind her deal.

 

But we have been here before where we’ve had speculation like that.

[Bobby Hundreds]

So fuck the country up so some other aristocratic twat can have a shot at being leader, Lord rinser of the British isles.

[M_B]

2 minutes ago, Anubis said:

May addressing the 1922 Committee at 5pm tomorrow. Suggestions she’ll set a firm date to stand down so that MPs will get behind her deal.

 

But we have been here before where we’ve had speculation like that.

Probably April 12th with a vote on her deal that week.

[Strontium]

Should be April the fucking 1st.

[Mook]

I've become a bit bored/lost with it all over the last couple of weeks & am confused by what's happened in the last 24hrs. On the news last night they were saying that MPs had voted to take back control of Brexit (presumably from Theresa May) which I thought sounded like good news given two thirds of them are against leaving the EU. But now on the BBC site, they are suggesting that they'll vote to put her shitey deal through.

 

Can someone explain to me in 'Brexit for dummies' terms what the fuck is going on please?

[Anubis]

1. MPs will now hold a series of votes to tell May what they’d like her to do;

2. May is hinting she’ll ignore them because she’s not bound by it;

3. Pro- Brexit MPs are now shitting it at the prospect of a GE/Referendum, so will now back May’s shitty deal that they’ve been opposing because they wanted no-deal Brexit;

4. She still may not have the numbers to win and so we may end up with a long extension or a general election.

[littletedwest]

How does a shit deal become a good deal if you agree to quit after it?

 

[SasaS]

Because they (Mogg et al) want a proper Brexiter to lead the trade talks with the EU. 

[Scooby Dudek]

DUP saying they would prefer a longer extension to backing Mays deal.

 

Hopefully that kills her deal. 

[Dr Nowt]

10 minutes ago, Scooby Dudek said:

DUP saying they would prefer a longer extension to backing Mays deal.

 

Hopefully that kills her deal. 

Exclusive footage of the DUP earlier.

 

[Barrington Womble]

5 hours ago, M_B said:

The problems I see with the indicative voting are firstly that she's blatently going to ignore whatever the outcome is unless it suits her and secondly it seems to overlook the issue of the backstop. Whatever Parliament decides, the EU is not going to change that.

 

Am I missing something here? Is this purely political maneuvering to deny her Parliamentary time for her deal?  If so then it doesnt seem a good tactic given that she wasn't confident in bringing it back this week anyway.

So here is my understanding of it. 

 

• It's mainly the Tory right and the DUP who are against the backstop. Maybe no more the 100 MPs. 
• Labour vote against May's deal because the withdrawal agreement and the policitical declaration have to be taken as a package. the political declaration is non-binding and vague in its aspirations. Keir Starrmer has said many times Labour has no issue with the backstop. 
• If any option includes a customs union, the issue of the backstop goes away and is no longer required. The people behind common market 2.0 (or norway plus) believe this could be agreed very quickly. http://betterbrexit.org.uk/

 

The aim here is to get 325 or so MP's to agree to one of the ways forward .... my gut feel is norway plus will get that type of support tomorrow, as a consequence the tory right and DUP will shit themselves and get behind May's deal on Thursday. The question then is if that quite makes enough numbers with the Tories that may have started to lean towards some of the other options. But for Tories, party unity will always come before the national interest , so my gut feel at this point is we'll end up with the deal everyone has been running from since November. 

 

[clangers]

DUP going for a longer delay to Brexit, it looks like the bulk of the ERG are crumbling, she's still around 40 votes short for her deal to pass. Expect a massive bung for the DUP.

[M_B]

8 minutes ago, Barry Wom said:

So here is my understanding of it.

Thanks

 

Yes I can see now that a customs union lessens the risk of the backstop.

 

But yes, given that she can just ignore the result I'll think she'll do the old 'run down the clock' tactic one last time and will resign if it fails.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Mook said:

I've become a bit bored/lost with it all over the last couple of weeks & am confused by what's happened in the last 24hrs. On the news last night they were saying that MPs had voted to take back control of Brexit (presumably from Theresa May) which I thought sounded like good news given two thirds of them are against leaving the EU. But now on the BBC site, they are suggesting that they'll vote to put her shitey deal through.

 

Can someone explain to me in 'Brexit for dummies' terms what the fuck is going on please?

To put it simply, it is no longer what the people want, it is now what the politicians want. 

 

Same as normal really. 

[skend04]

I think the DUP know they would be sacrificed by the Tories and ERG at the drop of a hat. Especially after yesterday's comments by May that it's their fault. I doubt they'll come back onside now.

[karl1987]

2 hours ago, Lizzie Birdsworths Wrinkled Chopper said:

Exclusive footage of the DUP earlier.

 

Nothing to do with money this time.  No amount of money will get them to back the deal with the backstop in place.  If anything the Labour position of a custom union suits them better as it means no border down the Irish sea.

[Jenson]

Just reading the BBC live feed and the amount of people saying "I'm sick of Brexit, let's just leave with no deal" without having the first clue what that will entail is depressing