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Cheltenham Festival 2015


ZonkoVille77
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Seems not, must be about the only race where I looked through the form of every single runner and then ended up without even one horse at longer odds I liked.

 

Got a shortlist of Don Cossack, Ma Filleule and John Spirit. Which, admittedly, isn't particularly helpful.

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Okay, most of these still have multiple entries. Most of the selections in the non Champ races are because the horses fit the profile of trends.

 

In chronological order -

 

Day 1

 

Supreme - Bentelimar 20/1 (Has entries in three other races, County Hurdle at 20s also, and two others at 33s).

Handicap Chase (3rd race of Day 1) - Grand Vision 16/1 (Has entries in the Kim Muir at 16s, and National Hunt Chase at 25s).

Champion Hurdle - Arctic Fire 14/1 (Value possibly already eaten up here, think he has a great chance of placing though).

Mare's Hurdle - Bitofapuzzle 16/1. Annie Power probably wins this, but I like Bitofapuzzle at 16s (Also entered in the potato race at 20s)

National Hunt Chase - Vroum Vroum Mag 12/1 (Entered in RSA and JLT both at 16s).

Novice Handicap Chase - Golden Hoof 25/1. Horizontal Speed 16/1.

 

Day 2

 

RSA - If In Doubt 20/1 (May skip the festival and race the day after it finishes).

Coral Cup - Fuck me this race took some time to go through. They had over 200 declared runners at one point. Noble Endeavor 20/1 (Also entered in the Martin Pipe Hurdle at 16s *and I like him whichever race he enters*). Ordo Ab Chao also at 20s, but probably more likely to end up in the potato race or the Neptune.

Fred Winter - Beatabout The Bush 25/1 (Also in the Martin Pipe at 33s).

Weatherby Champion Bumper - Stone Hard 16/1

 

Day 3

 

Pertemps - Uncle Jimmy 33/1

Kim Muir - Vintage Star 20/1 (Also entered in the Handicap Chase on Day 1, and at Aintree so may miss the festival). Smiles for Miles 25/1 (Also in the National Hunt chase at 33s).

 

Day 4

 

Albert Bartlett - Tea For Two 25/1 (Also in Coral Cup and Neptune)

Martin Pipe - Ttebbob 33/1 (Also in Coral Cup at the same price). Also Noble Endeavor, at 16s, that I mentioned earlier.

Grand Annual - Turn Over Sivola 25/1 (Entered in the Arkle at 66/1). Rawnaq 20/1 (Also in the Handicap Chase on Day 3 at 25s, the one race I won't be betting on).

 

All other horses I like either aren't at a particularly big price or are so likely to go in other races that it wasn't worth listing them.

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I work from home, so if I want some time off, well, I'll have some.

 

I reckon it probably took me on average about 30 to 45 minutes per race, less for Champ races (I know what I'm betting on), and a bit more for the Coral Cup and that cunting race on Thursday that I couldn't find anything for.

 

It's interesting that all the short price fancies are on the first day. Going to make or break a lot of festivals for punters and bookies.

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We should put our skills to the test and do a Forum lucky 15 or acca, whatcha reckon?

 

 

I'd put forward Nichols Canyon in the Neptune @4/1

 

I'm up for that. Is Nichols Canyon deffo going for the Neptune? Because he's about 7s for the Supreme as well.

 

Anyway, I'll go Apache Stronghold (11/2) for the JLT, he is still entered in the RSA as well though.

 

I'm guessing we're all swerving stuff like putting up Un De Sceaux for this L15.

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Final picks for Cheltenham, although one or two probably won't run, and I might bin a couple if the ground is much different to Good to Soft (which I doubt). Got two in most. Anything above 6/1-7/1 ish will probably be e/w. Anything below about 5/2 probably in an accumulator. The second Supreme and Arkle picks are partly to take advantage of the PP offer.

 

Supreme - Douvan/Bentelimar

Arkle - Un De Sceaux/Josses Hill 

Handicap Chase - Ned Stark/Grand Vision

Champion Hurdle - Faugheen/Jezki

Mares Hurdle - Annie Power/Caroles Spirit

National Hunt Chase - Don Poli/The Young Master

Handicap Chase - Generous Ransom/Caesar Milan

 

Neptune - Nichols Canyon/Shaneshill

RSA - Kings Palace/Southfield Theatre

Coral Cup - Arbre De Vie/Noble Endeavor/Ordo Ab Chao

Queen Mother - Champagne Fever/Mr Mole

Cross Country - Sire Collonges

Fred Winter - Sebastian Beach/Beatabout The Bush

Champion Bumper - Bordini/Stone Hard

 

JLT - Vautour/Gitane Du Berlais/Irish Saint

Pertemps - Bygones Sovereign/Call The Cops/Uncle Jimmy

Ryanair - Don Cossack/Johns Spirit

World Hurdle - Saphir Du Rheu/Whisper

Kim Muir - Gevrey Chambertin/Corrin Wood

 

Triumph - Petite Parisienne/Hargam

County Hurdle - Daneking/Quick Jack

Albert Bartlett - No More Heroes/Tea For Two

Gold Cup - Silviniaco Conti/Road To Riches

Fox Hunters - Current Event

Martin Pipe - Roi Des Francs/Ttebbob

Grand Annual - Rawnaq/Turn Over Sivola

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I follow this lads blogs a little bit and he picks up some good stuff through his stats(not foolproof of course) but worth a read.

 

One speaking about Hurdles and another about the chases.

 

http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/cheltenham-2015-handicap-hurdles-inc-2-micro-angles/

 

http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/cheltenham-handicap-chases/

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My bets so far, need a few to come in as I'm going on the Thursday and I'm skint already.

 

Champion hurdle - Faugheen 2/1

Chaps Novice chase - Keltus 25/1 ew / Rum & Butter ew 33/1 ew

Ultima - pendra 17/1

 

Neptune - Beast of burden 47/1

Champion bumper - An Quart de tour 16/1 ew

Coral cup - Hammersly lake 33/1 ew

RSA - Apache jack 25/1 ew

 

Kim Muir - Monbeg dude 20/1 ew

Ryanair - Hidden cyclone 16/1 ew

Pertemps - Sybarite 25/1 / Bygones sovereign 20/1 ew

World hurdle - un temps pour tout 25/1 ew

 

Gold Cup - Sil Conti 6/1 / Carlingford Lough 22/1

 

Acca's

 

The Mullins 4 on the Tuesday at just over 16/1

Sapphire de rheu & Carlingford lough (pricewise double)

Un de Sceaux/Annie p/Pitt zig

Douvan/U.D.S/Faugheen/Annie/Peace & co - 40/1

Annie p/Peace & co/Sil conti - 24/1

Faugheen/ Saphire de rheu - 16/1

Faugheen/ Conti - 10/1

Faugheen/Kings palace 14/1

U.D.S/Annie/Conti 13/1

Sprinter sacre/Conti - 20/1

Douvan/U.D.S/Faugheen/Annie/Don Poli - 80/1

U.D.S/Faugheen/Vatour - 14/1

Douvan/Nichols canyon/Vatour/Peace & co - 160/1

Douvan/U.D.S/Annie/Don Poli/Peace & co - 115/1

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