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Queen Bee at 73

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All teams scored at par apart from Everton who dropped 2 points with their home draw to Hull and Southampton who dropped a point losing away to Arsenal.

 

Che: +2

City: -2

Soton: -6

Arse: -11

Utd: -11

Spurs: -14

Liv: -14

Eve: -16

 

 

 

Queen Bee Table

 

Chelsea gained a couple by beating Spurs, Arsenal gained a couple and Southampton dropped 1 in their game against each other, closing the gap between them to just the 1 point, and Everton dropped the 2 points. Other results were at par.

 

Che: +8

City: +5

South: -2

Arse: -3

Spurs: -5

Utd: -7

Liv: -8

Eve: -12

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

City lost to Sunderland last season, so they make up 3 points and move ahead of Chelsea. If they and Chelsea were to get the same results as last season, City would win the league. The only other change was Everton dropping 2 points.

 

City: 90 (+4)

Che: 88 (+6)

Liv: 77 (-7)

Arse: 72 (-7)

Spurs: 68 (-1)

Eve: 61 (-11)

South: 60 (+4)

Utd: 57 (-7)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

Che: 88 (+6)

City: 88 (+2)

Liv: 77 (-7)

Arse: 70 (-9)

Utd: 67 (+3)

Spurs: 65 (-4)

Eve: 63 (-10)

South: 59 (+3)

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Missed last week, and its not looking good...

 

So, following the draw with Sunderland and loss against Utd

 
Queen Bee at 73 Update
 
Method 1: What we should get against each team: -11 
 
We dropeed 3 points and are down to 11 poitns behind target. 
 
Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -1
 
We won both games last season, so we have now dropped 11 points compared to the corresponding games and for the first time this season we are behind target.
 
Method 3: This stage last season: -1
 
Last season we were on 33 points after 16 games, so we are 12 points down and 1 point behind our target.
 
This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 72 points
 
Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -9.7

21 points from 16 games is 1.31 points per game, and we would be on 30.7 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.92 point per game.
 
From 24 matches remaining we need 53 points, which is 2.21 points per game.
 
If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 49.9 points
 
Next Game
 
Home to Arsenal means that a draw is par. We won this game last season
 

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Method 1: What we should get against each team: -17 

 

3 points dropped, we are now 17 points behind target.

 

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -18

 

We need to make up 18 points on last seasons games to hit the target.

 

Method 3: This stage last season: -18 

 

Last season we were on 33 points after 14 games, so we are 12 points down, and 18 points behind target.

 

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -16.9

 

21 points from 16 games is 1.31 points per game, and we would be on 37.9 points if we were going at the required rate of 2.37 points per game.

 

From the 22 games remaining, we need 69 points, which is 3.14 points per game, ie we can't hit it

 

Next Game

 

Home to Arsenal means that a win is par.

 

I may stop with this update as I think its fair to say we are out of the title race...

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Southampton drop back to make, United make up a few points beating us, we drop to the bottom with Everton

 

Che: +1

City: -2

Soton: -9

Utd: -9

Arse: -12

Spurs: -14

Liv: -17

Eve: -17

 

 

Queen Bee Table

 

Bad couple of weeks for Southampton, who fall behind Utd, Arsenal and Spurs. We've of course dropped back, but I don't think the likes of UTd are quite out of reach yet.

 

Che: +7

City: +7

Arse: -2

Utd: -3

Spurs: -5

South: -6

Liv: -11

Eve: -12

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

City made up a couple of points. Southampton lost all of the poitns they had gained. We dropped the 5 points, but if all the remaining results were to be the same as last season, we would still finish 4th. Something to hang onto at least.

 

City: 92 (+6)

Che: 88 (+6)

Liv: 72 (-12)

Arse: 72 (-7)

Spurs: 63 (-3)

Eve: 61 (-11)

South: 56 (level)

Utd: 62 (-2)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

City: 90 (+4)

Che: 88 (+6)

Liv: 72 (-12)

Utd: 70 (+6)

Arse: 70 (-9)

Spurs: 66 (-3)

Eve: 62 (-11)

South: 58 (+2)

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I'm bad at maths so please explain - does this mean we're still shite?

 

Yes

 

We want green numbers against our targets, but they are all red, and some of them big. That is bad.

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Apologies for the lack of updates, since the New Year it has been a combination of busy at work, forgetfulness and simple laziness.

These numbers are set for a target of 73 points for 4th, however for me I think it is clear that this is a low scoring season, and my feeling is that perhaps 69/70 may be good enough for 4th this season, although I can't be arsed to fuck around with my spreadsheet to change the par scores, so they stay at 73.
 
So, following the 5 wins and 2 draws since the last update
 
Queen Bee at 73 Update
 
Method 1: What we should get against each team: -13 
 
We dropeed 2 points with the draw against Leicester, all the other results were at par.
 
Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -5
 
We dropped 4 points with the draws against Arsenal and Leicester, the other results were the same. If our remain results match last seasons, we would finish on 68 points, so we are 5 behind target having dropped 16 points overall.
 
Method 3: This stage last season: +3
 
Last season we were on 46 points after 23 games, so we have made up 4 points since the last update and are 8 points down and 3 points ahead of our target and back to green.
 
This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 76 points
 
Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -6.2

38 points from 23 games is 1.65 points per game, and we would be on 44.2 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.92 point per game.
 
From 24 matches remaining we need 35 points, which is 2.33 points per game.
 
If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 62.8 points
 
Next Game
 
Away to Everton means that a draw is par. We draw this game last season
 

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Chelsea have moved significantly ahead in this, as apart from Arsenal away game, they have played all of their par 1 away games

 

Che: +4

City: -7

Soton: -10

Arse: -11

Utd: -14

Spurs: -17

Liv: -19

Eve: -27

 

 

Queen Bee Table

 

Since the last update Southampton have done really well and made up 6 points to be on course to hit 73 points. Arsenal are ahead of them by the 1 point thanks to their massive win at City. Spurs have scored at par, Utd ahve dropped 1 point and we dropped 2. I am leaving Everton in the table for comedic effect.

 

Che: +13

City: +5

Arse: +1

South: level

Utd: -4

Spurs: -5

Liv: -13

Eve: -21

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

City have dropped 4 points compared to last season. Arsenal turned around a lot of points from last season, making up 6 points, whilst Spurs have also leapfrogged us having made up 4 points, mening that for the first time if all results stay the same as last season we would be outside the top 4.

 

City: 88 (+2)

Che: 88 (+6)

Arse: 78 (-1)

Spurs: 70 (+1)

Liv: 68 (-16)

Utd: 65 (-2)

South: 60 (+4)

Eve: 55 (-17)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

Due to our very strong finish last season we are still doing well in this table, however that mean it will be tough to match it.

 

Stoke and West Hame have now scored more than Everton over the last 38 games...

 

Che: 85 (+3)

City: 81 (-5)

Liv: 76 (-8)

Arse: 69 (-10)

Utd: 67 (+3)

Spurs: 66 (-3)

South: 66 (+10)

Stoke: 60

West Ham: 57

Eve: 56 (-16)

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Following the draw with Everton
 
Queen Bee at 73 Update
 
Method 1: What we should get against each team: -13 
 
A draw away to Everton was par, so we remain 13 points behind target

The problem is, we are running out of games and w need to turn some of these par 1s into wins to make up ground.
 
Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -5
 
We drew away to Everton last season, so we remain 5 behind target having dropped 16 points overall.
 
Method 3: This stage last season: +3
 
Last season we were on 47 points after 24 games, so we remain 8 points down and 3 points ahead of our target and back to green.
 
This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 76 points

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -7.1

39 points from 24 games is 1.63 points per game, and we would be on 46.1 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.92 point per game.
 
From 14 matches remaining we need 34 points, which is 2.43 points per game.
 
If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 61.8 points
 
Next Game
 
Home to Spurs means that a draw is par. We won this game last season
 

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It was at this point last season that we started our run of 11 wins on the trot, and only drawing and losing one in the remaining games. We are probably unlikely to match, but it will be a case of getting as close as possible.

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Dropping points to Hull really doesn't help City's chances

 

Che: +4

City: -9

Soton: -10

Arse: -11

 

Queen Bee Table

 

Spurs gained 2 points beating Arsenal, whilst Arsenal drop the 1. City and Utd both dropped 2 points.

 

Che: +13

City: +3

Arse: level

South: level

Spurs: -3

Utd: -6

Liv: -13

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

Chelsea lost to Villa last season, whilst City had beaten Hull, which sees a 5 point swing between them. Arsenal beat Sputs last year so a 6 point swing there and Tottenham start pulling away from us. Utd droped 2 points.

 

Che: 91 (+9)

City: 86 (level)

Arse: 75 (-4)

Spurs: 73 (+4)

Liv: 68 (-16)

Utd: 63 (-1)

South: 60 (+4)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

I think this table shows how badly Arsenal did at the end of last season. At this point in the season Arsenal were actually sitting in 1st place with an 8 point lead over us. Goes to show how quickly things can change.

 

Che: 85 (+3)

City: 82 (-4)

Liv: 76 (-8)

Utd: 68 (+4)

Spurs: 68 (-1)

Arse: 66 (-13)

South: 66 (+10)

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Right, I've made a few changes. First, I've decided to drop the target from 73 points as I don't think the 4th placed team will need that, so those that enjoyed last season's thread on the MF will be glad to hear that we are back banging the drum to 71 again.

I've also adjusted my team rankings as I think we are far enough into the season to know whether a team's form is true or not. The main change is that West Ham have gone a par 3 home and away team, to a par 1 home and away team.

So, following the win against Spurs
 
Bang the Drum Update
 
Method 1: What we should get against each team: -7 
 
A draw to Spurs was par, so we gain a couple of points, and with the other changes made, we go from 13 points behind target to only 7.

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -5
 
We beat Spurs last season, but with the change in target we drop to being 3 behind it having dropped 16 points overall.
 
Method 3: This stage last season: +5
 
Last season we were on 50 points after 25 games, so we remain 8 points down but move to 5 points ahead of our target.
 
This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 76 points

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -4.7

42 points from 25 games is 1.68 points per game, and we would be on 46.7 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.87 point per game.
 
From 13 matches remaining we need 29 points, which is 2.23 points per game.
 
If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 63.8 points
 
Next Game
 
Away to Southampton means that a draw is par, however in reality we probably need to win it. We won this game last season
 

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City make up a couple of pointe beating Stoke away

 

Che: +4

City: -7

 

Queen Bee Table

 

We've done well out of the changes I made, but to be honest the 13 point gap between us and Southampton under the previous method was too big considering the actual points gap. Utd also got a couple of points out of it.

 

Otherwise, we gained a couple beating Spurs, whilst they dropped 1. City gained a couple by this method, but I think you can ignore City and Chelsea in this table now as its not relevant for them. The other teams scored at par.

 

Che: +15

City: +7

Arse: level

South: level

Spurs: -4

Utd: -4

Liv: -7

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

City drew with Stoke last year so make up a couple, as do Utd who had drawn at home to Burnley's equivalent in Fulham. All the other results were the same.

 

Che: 91 (+9)

City: 88 (+2)

Arse: 75 (-4)

Spurs: 73 (+4)

Liv: 68 (-16)

Utd: 65 (+1)

South: 60 (+4)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

Che: 85 (+3)

City: 82 (-4)

Liv: 76 (-8)

Utd: 68 (+4)

Spurs: 68 (-1)

Arse: 66 (-13)

South: 66 (+10)

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If we get to 71, do you think our goal difference will sort itself out?

 

If it comes to goal difference, I think we are in trouble, as we'd need to get close to a goal a game better than the other teams, who would more than likely be winning as well.

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Following the win against Southampton

 

Bang the Drum Update

 

Method 1: What we should get against each team: -5 

 

A draw to Southampton was par, so we gain a couple of points, and with the other changes made, we go from 7 points behind our target, to 5.

 

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -5

 

We beat Southampton last season, we remain 3 points behind the 71 point target having dropped 16 points overall.

 

Method 3: This stage last season: +5

 

Last season we were on 53 points after 26 games, so we remain 8 points down but move to 5 points ahead of our target.

 

This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 76 points

 

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -3.6

 

45 points from 26 games is 1.73 points per game, and we would be on 48.6 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.87 point per game.

 

From the 12 matches remaining we need 26 points, which is 2.17 points per game.

 

If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 65.8 points

 

Next Game

 

Home to Man City means that a loss is actually par. We won this game last season

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I don't suppose anyone really cares about this, but I made West Ham away a par 1 for this method, giving a target of 88 points. That improve City's score by 2 points, and with Chelsea droping a couple, the gap is closer, but Chelsea still look nailed on.

 

Che: +2

City: -5

 

Queen Bee Table

 

We gain 2 points with our win at Southampton, but for them a loss was par (think my last update was wrong, had them level). Utd drop just the one point each with loss to Swansea away, and Spurs draw at home to West Ham was actually a par score so no change for them. We draw level with Utd by this method, but still 4 points down on Southampton due to their easier fixtures

 

Che: +13

City: +7

Arse: level

South: -1

Spurs: -4

Utd: -5

Liv: -5

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

Chelsea beat Burnley's equivalent in Fulham last season, so drop a couple of points, this method has City and Chelsea much closer together last season's results repeat. Spurs actually gain a point as they lost to West Hma last season, and Utd beat Swansea last season so drop 3. LvG has actually scored 2 points less than the Moyes/Giggs combination in the equivalent games as last season

 

Che: 89 (+7)

City: 88 (+2)

Arse: 75 (-4)

Spurs: 74 (+5)

Liv: 68 (-16)

Utd: 62 (-2)

South: 60 (+4)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

Arsenal crashed at the end of last season, whilst we went on a rampage, so we could swap positions quite quickly in this one

 

Che: 85 (+3)

City: 84 (-2)

Liv: 76 (-8)

Arse: 71 (-8)

Utd: 69 (+5)

Spurs: 63 (-6)

South: 63 (+7)

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Following the win against Man City

 

Bang the Drum Update

 

Method 1: What we should get against each team: -2 

 

A loss was par, so we gain 3 points, and move to only 2 points behind the target.

 

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -5

 

We beat City last season, we remain 3 points behind the 71 point target having dropped 16 points overall.

 

Method 3: This stage last season: +5

 

Last season we were on 56 points after 27 games, so we remain 8 points down but 5 points ahead of our target.

 

This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 76 points

 

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -2.4

 

48 points from 27 games is 1.78 points per game, and we would be on 50.4 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.87 point per game.

 

From the 11 matches remaining we need 23 points, which is 2.09 points per game.

 

If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 67.6 points

 

Next Game

 

Home to Burnley means that a win is par. We won e corresponding game against Fulham last season 

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City drop another point with their loss to us

 

Che: +2

City: -6

 

Bang the Drum Table

 

We gain 3 points beating City at home, and Arsenal gain 2 points beating Everton. Southampton dropped 3 points in their loss to West Brom, whilst Utd scored at par. With that, we are back in the top 4 by this method for the first time since November (probably earlier, but I wasn't tracking Southampton then).

 

Che: +13

City: +7

Arse: +2

Liv: -2

South: -4

Spurs: -4

Utd: -5

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

No change for us or City, but Arsenal drew at home to Everton last season, and Utd lost to Sunderland, so they gain 2 and 3 points respectively. Southampton beat West Brom last season, so drop 3 points, and are now only 1 point higher than what they scored from the same games last season, which is surprising.

 

Che: 89 (+7)

City: 88 (+2)

Arse: 77 (-2)

Spurs: 74 (+5)

Liv: 68 (-16)

Utd: 65 (+1)

South: 57 (+1)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

Arsenal crashed at this stage last season, whilst we went on a rampage, so we could swap positions quite quickly in this one

 

Che: 85 (+3)

City: 81 (-5)

Liv: 76 (-8)

Arse: 71 (-8)

Utd: 69 (+5)

Spurs: 63 (-6)

South: 63 (+7)

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Guest LFD

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -2.4

 

48 points from 27 games is 1.78 points per game, and we would be on 50.4 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.87 point per game.

 

From the 11 matches remaining we need 23 points, which is 2.09 points per game.

 

If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 67.6 points

 

 

I saw on SSN that in the the first two seasons under Rodgers we got 2.50 points per game and this season we are also going at around 2.50 as well.

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