Queen Bee at 73

[stringvest]

Thanks Wooster, much appreciated.  Can you post a link to your graphical trend analysis page?

[The Woolster]

Apologies for the delay, actual work got in the way...
 
Top of the Shop table
 
Arsenal and Utd both drop 2 points with draws, Spurs drop a point losing away to City. All other results were at par. Whilst it looks like Chelsea have a clear lead in the actual table, this method shows that City have actually had slightly tougher games and are perhaps closer than it seems.
 
Gonna take a risk on being bitten on the arse as the season goes on and point out how bad Utd have been.
 
Utd are the only team not to have had a par 1 game yet, a team with title aspiration should expect to have won all of them. To be 12 points down is bad. Really bad.
 
Che: +2
City: +1
Arse: -7
Spurs: -7
Liv: -7
Eve: -9
Utd: -12
 
 
Queen Bee Table
 
City gain 2 points beating Spurs and leapfrog Chelsea, but Spurs don't drop any, otherwise the same as above.

I pointed this out last year, but this table is less relevant for those teams fighting for the title, ie Chelsea and City, as they should be expecting to win more of their games than the par scores for ths suggests.

Utd have only had 2 matches with a par score of 1 in this method, good thing for them they pulled 2 points back by beating Everton. In comparison, City have had 5, us, Arsenal, Everton and Spurs have all had 4, and Chelseaare the closest having only played 3.
 
City: +6
Che: +5
Liv: -2
Arse: -3
Spurs: -3
Eve: -5
Utd: -10
 
 
Match Comparison Table
 
Chelsea lost away to Palace last season, so gain 3 points, whilst Arsenal and Utd won their games last season so both drop 2 points. All other results were the same.

Last season from the same matches, Moyes' Utd scored 21 points, and would have been 1 point behind Chelsea in 2nd place this season. That is how bad Utd have been so far this season. Of course there is still time for them to turn it around, but they are gonna have to win some of the mroe difficult games to do it.
 
City: 87 (+1)
Che: 86 (+4)
Liv: 81 (-3)
Arse: 74 (-5)
Spurs: 69 (level)
Eve: 67 (-5)
Utd: 55 (-9)
 
 
Last 38 Games Table
 
Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

Note: Don't think its updated at the time of this post, but I make it as below
 
Che: 87 (+5)
City: 87 (+1)
Liv: 80 (-4)
Arse: 71 (-8)
Eve: 66 (-6)
Utd: 65 (+1)
Spurs: 64 (-5)
 

[The Woolster]

Thanks Wooster, much appreciated.  Can you post a link to your graphical trend analysis page?

 

No pretty pictures from me I'm afraid.

 

You can find some though over at Rawk though:

Here for a slightly different par score method http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?PHPSESSID=i8t8lrt63r67k0fp6rbkqtipe1&topic=315567.200

 

And match comparison here http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?PHPSESSID=i8t8lrt63r67k0fp6rbkqtipe1&topic=315775.40

[The Woolster]

Reposting this table as I realised I had Chelsea's home/away results the wrong way round against Norwich last season. 

Match Comparison Table
  
Che: 88 (+6)
City: 87 (+1)
Liv: 81 (-3)
Arse: 74 (-5)
Spurs: 69 (level)
Eve: 67 (-5)
Utd: 55 (-9)
 
 

I'll remind you of the caveat from the OP

"Be warned, I will make mistakes, probably by misreading my spreadsheet and possibly by putting the wrong results in the spreadsheet, and especially if I change the team rankings, but I will try to spot them as soon as I can."

 
 
 

[The Woolster]

I was away with work for part of last week and was too busy to do the update I'm afraid.

 

Following the draw with Hull and loss to Newcastle

 

Queen Bee at 73 Update

 

Method 1: What we should get against each team: -5 

 

We dropped 2 points against Hull and 1 against Newcastle and drop to 5 behind target. 

 

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: +5

 

We beat Hull and drew with Newcastle last season, so we drop to 6 points less than in the corresponding games, but still have headroom of 5 points.

 

Method 3: This stage last season: +5

 

Last season we were on 20 points after 10 games, so we are back to 6 points down and headroom of 5 points ahead of traget.

 

This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 78 points

 

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -5.2

 

14 points from 10 games is 1.4 points per game, and we would be on 19.2 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.92 point per game.

 

From 28 matches remaining we need 59 points, which is 2.11 points per game.

 

If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 53.2 points

 

Next Game

 

Home to Chelsea means that a loss is par. We lost this game last season.

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop Update

 

Method 1: What we should get against each team: -10 

 

Also 3 points dropped, so we are now 10 points behind target.

 

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -12

 

We still need to make up 12 points on last seasons games to hit the target.

 

Method 3: This stage last season: -12 

 

Last season we were on 20 points after 10 games, so we are 6 points down, and 12 points behind target.

 

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -5.9

 

14 points from 10 games is 1.4 points per game, and we would be on 23.7 points if we were going at the required rate of 2.37 points per game.

 

From the 28 games remaining, we need 76 points, which is 2.71 points per game

 

Next Game

 

Home to Chelsea means a draw is par.

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop table

 

Following City's loss to West Ham, Chelsea open up a little gap. Arsenal have scored at par the last 2 weeks and everyone else has dropped points

 

Che: +2

City: -2

Arse: -7

Spurs: -10

Liv: -10

Eve: -11

Utd: -13

 

 

Queen Bee Table

 

I thought I would check Southampton's score and have added them to teh table, if they continue to challenge, I will keep them in the table. They are only 1 point above par having had a relatively schedule, however other than Chelsea and City, everyone else is doing shite.

 

City: +5

Che: +5

South: +1

Arse: -3

Spurs: -4

Liv: -5

Eve: -7

Utd: -9

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

City, us and Everton have all dropped points on this int he last 2 weeks.

 

Che: 88 (+6)

City: 84 (-2)

Liv: 78 (-6)

Arse: 74 (-5)

Spurs: 69 (level)

Eve: 65 (-7)

Utd: 55 (-9)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

 

Che: 87 (+5)

City: 87 (+1)

Liv: 78 (-6)

Arse: 73 (-6)

Spurs: 67 (-2)

Eve: 66 (-6)

Utd: 65 (+1)

[The Woolster]

Following the loss to Chelsea 

 

Queen Bee at 73 Update
 
Method 1: What we should get against each team: -5 
 
A loss was actually par, so we remain 5 points behind the target. 
 
Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: +5
 
We also lost this game last season, so still have headroom of 5 points.
 
Method 3: This stage last season: +2
 
Last season we were on 23 points after 11 games, so we are 9 points down and headroom of only 2 points ahead of traget.
 
This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 75 points
 
Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -7.1

14 points from 11 games is 1.27 points per game, and we would be on 21.1 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.92 point per game.
 
From 27 matches remaining we need 59 points, which is 2.19 points per game.
 
If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 48.4 points
 
Next Game
 
Away to Palace means that a win is par.

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop Update
 
Method 1: What we should get against each team: -11 
 
For this mehtod a draw was par, so we are now 11 points behind target.
 
Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -12
 
As we also lost last season, we still need to make up 12 points on last seasons games to hit the target.
 
Method 3: This stage last season: -12 

Last season we were on 23 points after 11 games, so we are 9 points down, and 15 points behind target.
 
Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -12.1

14 points from 11 games is 1.27 points per game, and we would be on 26.1 points if we were going at the required rate of 2.37 points per game.
 
From the 28 games remaining, we need 76 points, which is 2.81 points per game
 
Next Game
 
Away to Palace means that a win is par.

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop table

 

Chelsea's win against us and City's draw against QPR sees the gap widen to 8 points by this method. Utd were the only team other than Chelsea to not drop points. Us and Arsenal both dropped a point, Everton dropped 2 points and Spurs dropped 3 points.

 

Che: +4

City: -4

Arse: -8

Liv: -11

Spurs: -13

Eve: -13

Utd: -13

 

 

Queen Bee Table

 

I think this table shows the relative ease of Southamptons schedule so far (having said that, I don't think they have lost to a team in the top half of tha actual table yet). From the tradtional big 7, they have only played us and Spurs, and they lost both those games. The 6 gap difference between us by this method sure looks more surmountable than the 11 point difference in the actual table. 

 

Che: +8

City: +3

South: +1

Arse: -4

Liv: -5

Spurs: -7

Eve: -9

Utd: -9

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

I've added Southampton to this table, only them and Chelsea have made up points on last season.

 

City actually made up a point with their draw as they lost to Cardiff last season. Us, Chelsea Southampton and Utd had the same result, whilst Arsenal, Spurs and Everton all dropped points.

 

Che: 88 (+6)

City: 85 (-1)

Liv: 78 (-6)

Arse: 71 (-8)

Spurs: 66 (-3)

Eve: 63 (-9)

South: 61 (+5)

Utd: 55 (-9)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

Also added Southampton to this list, they are only 3 points better off than this stage last season so still a long way to go before they are showing consistant top 4 form for a whole season.

 

Che: 90 (+8)

City: 88 (+2)

Liv: 75 (-9)

Arse: 71 (-8)

Eve: 66 (-6)

Spurs: 63 (-6)

Utd: 60 (-4)

South: 59 (+3)

[Rotpeter]

Bleak!

[The Woolster]

Following the loss to Palace 

 

I have to say, its not much fun updating this when we're doing shit...

 

Queen Bee at 73 Update

 

Method 1: What we should get against each team: -8 

 

A win was par, so we drop to 8 points behind the target. 

 

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: +4

 

We drew this game last season, so our headroom drops to 4 points.

 

Method 3: This stage last season: +1

 

Last season we were on 24 points after 12 games, so we are 10 points down and headroom of only 1 points ahead of traget.

 

This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 74 points

 

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -9.1

 

14 points from 12 games is 1.17 points per game, and we would be on 23.1 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.92 point per game.

 

From 26 matches remaining we need 59 points, which is 2.27 points per game.

 

If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 44.3 points

 

Next Game

 

Home to Stoke means that a win is par. We won this game last season

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop Update

 

Method 1: What we should get against each team: -14 

 

A win was par, so we are now 14 points behind target.

 

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -16

 

As we drew last season, we now need to make up 16 points on last seasons games to hit the target.

 

Method 3: This stage last season: -16 

 

Last season we were on 24 points after 12 games, so we are 10 points down, and 16 points behind target.

 

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -14.4

 

14 points from 12 games is 1.17 points per game, and we would be on 28.4 points if we were going at the required rate of 2.37 points per game.

 

From the 26 games remaining, we need 76 points, which is 2.92 points per game. All we need to do is win every game...

 

Next Game

 

Home to Stoke means that a win is par.

[Russ Atmosphere]

If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 44.3 points

 

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop table

 

At the moment this still looks like a 1 horse race with Chelsea well clear. Following our loss, we drop to the bottom of this table, and Utd's win over Arsenal sees them leapfrog Everton and SPurs to draw level with the Gunners.

 

Che: +4

City: -4

Soton: -4

Arse: -11

Utd: -11

Spurs: -13

Eve: -13

Liv: -14

 

 

 

Queen Bee Table

 

Chelsea and City clear in this one, Southampton go into negative territory, and we drop down a couple of places, but its very tight down at the bottom.

 

Che: +8

City: +3

South: -1

Arse: -5

Spurs: -7

Utd: -7

Liv: -8

Eve: -9

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

Apart from Chelsea, there is a hell of a lot of shitness going on this year...

 

Che: 90 (+8)

City: 85 (-1)

Liv: 77 (-7)

Arse: 70 (-9)

Spurs: 68 (-1)

Eve: 63 (-9)

South: 61 (+5)

Utd: 57 (-7)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

Also added Southampton to this list, they are only 3 points better off than this stage last season so still a long way to go before they are showing consistant top 4 form for a whole season.

 

Che: 90 (+8)

City: 88 (+2)

Liv: 74 (-10)

Arse: 68 (-11)

Eve: 68 (-4)

Spurs: 66 (-3)

Utd: 62 (-2)

South: 60 (+4)

[Paco]

so you're saying we'll finish third?

[Rotpeter]

Following the loss to Palace 

 

I have to say, its not much fun updating this when we're doing shit...

Imagine how Dave feels having to relive the entire experience when writing the match reports!

[The Woolster]

Following the win against Stoke 

 

Queen Bee at 73 Update

 

Method 1: What we should get against each team: -8 

 

A win was par, so we remain 8 points behind the target. 

 

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: +4

 

We won this game last season, so we have dropped 7 points compared to the corresponding games and our headroom remains at 4 points.

 

Method 3: This stage last season: +2

 

Last season we were on 24 points after 13 games, so we are 7 points down and headroom of only 4 points ahead of traget.

 

This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 77 points

 

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -8

 

17 points from 13 games is 1.31 points per game, and we would be on 25 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.92 point per game.

 

From 25 matches remaining we need 56 points, which is 2.24 points per game.

 

If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 49.7 points

 

Next Game

 

Away to Leicester means that a win is par. We won the corresponding game against Norwich last season

 

Lets hope they have taken over the Norwich hoodoo we had...

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop Update

 

Method 1: What we should get against each team: -14 

 

A win was par, so we remain 14 points behind target.

 

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -16

 

We need to make up 13 points on last seasons games to hit the target.

 

Method 3: This stage last season: -16 

 

Last season we were on 24 points after 13 games, so we are 7 points down, and 13 points behind target.

 

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -13.8

 

17 points from 13 games is 1.31 points per game, and we would be on 30.8 points if we were going at the required rate of 2.37 points per game.

 

From the 25 games remaining, we need 73 points, which is 2.92 points per game. All we need to do is win every game...

 

Next Game

 

Away to Leicester means that a win is par.

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop table

 

City winning away to Southampton and Chelsea drawing with Sunderland sees the gap between the teo drop from 8 points to 4 points. Everton and Southampton drop a poitn each losing tough away games, and everyone scored at par.

 

Che: +2

City: -2

Soton: -5

Arse: -11

Utd: -11

Spurs: -13

Eve: -14

Liv: -14

 

 

Queen Bee Table

 

I would ignore how close Chelsea and City are in this table, as this table isn't really meant for those battling at the top. From the others, Spurs gained 2 points and Everton dropped the 1 in their game.

 

Che: +6

City: +5

South: -1

Arse: -5

Spurs: -5

Utd: -7

Liv: -8

Eve: -10

 

 

Match Comparison Table

 

Chelea drop points for only the 2nd time this season, whilst City gain a couple as they drew away to Southampton last season, who drop the 1 point, and Arsenal drew with West Brom last season so gain 2. The other results were the same.

 

Che: 88 (+6)

City: 87 (+1)

Liv: 77 (-7)

Arse: 72 (-7)

Spurs: 68 (-1)

Eve: 63 (-9)

South: 60 (+4)

Utd: 57 (-7)

 

 

Last 38 Games Table

 

Whilst I am adding this up for us, I'm getting all the other teams scores from here, http://www.thechels.co.uk/last-38-league/ , so am relying on it to be updated correctly

 

Che: 88 (+6)

City: 88 (+2)

Liv: 77 (-7)

Arse: 68 (-11)

Spurs: 68 (-1)

Eve: 65 (-8)

Utd: 64 (level)

South: 60 (+4)

[dave u]

Queen Bea. She's not 73 for another two years though according to Wiki

 

[The Woolster]

 

Imagine how Dave feels having to relive the entire experience when writing the match reports!

At least Dave is indirectly getting paid for them via book sales and publicising the website, all I get is another one for the wank bank and the odd rep here and there...

[The Woolster]

 

Queen Bea. She's not 73 for another two years though according to Wiki

 

 

What you're saying is she's still Banging the drum to 71? I wish we were too

[The Woolster]

Following the win against Leicester 
 
Queen Bee at 73 Update
 
Method 1: What we should get against each team: -8 
 
A win was par, so we remain 8 points behind the target. 
 
Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: +4
 
We won this game last season, so we have dropped 7 points compared to the corresponding games and our headroom remains at 4 points.
 
Method 3: This stage last season: +2
 
Last season we were on 27 points after 14 games, so we are 7 points down and headroom of only 4 points ahead of traget.
 
This means that from the last 38 games, we have scored 77 points
 
Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -6.9

20 points from 14 games is 1.43 points per game, and we would be on 26.9 points if we were going at the required rate of 1.92 point per game.
 
From 24 matches remaining we need 53 points, which is 2.21 points per game.
 
If we continue at our current rate for the rest of the season, we'd finish on 54.3 points
 
Next Game
 
Home to Sunderland means that a win is par. We won this game last season
 

[The Woolster]

Top of the Shop Update

 

Method 1: What we should get against each team: -14 

 

A win was par, so we remain 14 points behind target.

 

Method 2: Compared to how we did against each team last season: -16

 

We need to make up 13 points on last seasons games to hit the target.

 

Method 3: This stage last season: -16 

 

Last season we were on 27 points after 14 games, so we are 7 points down, and 13 points behind target.

 

Method 4: How many points per game do we need: -13.2

 

20 points from 14 games is 1.43 points per game, and we would be on 33.2 points if we were going at the required rate of 2.37 points per game.

 

From the 24 games remaining, we need 70 points, which is 2.92 points per game. All we need to do is win every game (we could draw one actually)...

 

Next Game

 

Home to Sunderland means that a win is par.