Scottish Independence, yay or nay?

[Sugar Ape]

I don't see it. You're discounting the huge surge in SMEs which will rise up to support the local economy. Imagine being able to close tax loopholes for individuals and businesses? You don't want to pay your way Starbucks? Then you're not getting in. Fuck off. What about you, Murdoch?

 

New banks, new industries, flexibility in providing incentives to persuade large foreign manufacturers to invest in Scotland, reduced dependence on trade deals with disreputable regimes etc etc.

 

Scotland could easily borrow money for the transition phase at very reasonable rates through its oil revenues. Ireland's fate was tied in to the fate of the EU. Scotland's won't be to anywhere near the same degree.

You think that's what's going to happen? They've pledged to cut corporation tax. Salmond and Murdoch are close. I was reading before that Murdoch was ' Tweeting gleefully ' about the yes vote being in the lead over the weekend.

 

Why would that be? Because he's a staunch supporter of a fair society? Or because he sees a chance to coin it in.

 

They wouldn't get favourable borrowing rates either with no central bank or lender of last resort, oil or not.

[mattyq]

You seem to me to be just taking on board the things that confirm your thoughts, and more pertinently your fears. There are lots of reasons to be optimistic for Scotland too, but you are happy to dismiss them.

 

It's really impossible to predict what would/will happen, but I think I'd be voting yes if I was Scottish. 

 

Well, to a certain extent i agree with you. I'm naturally a change averse type of person

However, i'd say that i am essentially optimistic about Scotland and the UK in that it'll all work out in the end

Before that, though, i think there'll be a massive upheaval with recession for both the UK and Scotland...worse in Scotland's case as she'll be less able to deal with all the shocks

I don't see how that could be avoided; do you?

[stringvest]

You think that's what's going to happen? They've pledged to cut corporation tax. Salmond and Murdoch are close. I was reading before that Murdoch was ' Tweeting gleefully ' about the yes vote being in the lead over the weekend.

 

Why would that be? Because he's a staunch supporter of a fair society? Or because he sees a chance to coin it in.

 

They wouldn't get favourable borrowing rates either with no central bank or lender of last resort, oil or not.

 

Of course they would need to establish a central bank.  But I know that they would get favourable borrowing rates on the open market. No-one is saying this will be quick, simple or easy.  While words like 'optimism' and 'energy', 'togetherness' and 'opportunity' often seem like emotional intangibles in discussions like this, it is too easy to underestimate what these attributes, when focused, can achieve.  The world operates in realities.  The NO camp is still alarmingly complacent or ignorant in what the realities for Scotland are.  Business is business.  

 

And Murdoch?  he'll end up making less money per head rom Scotland than he does at the moment while delivering the same level of 'service', I'd bet my mortgage on it.  

[Sugar Ape]

I'm not burying my head in the sand over any of it, or at least I hope not.

 

Remaining allied to the pound in the long term would be a complete mistake imo. Without financial independence, or at least negotiating any association under your own terms, you are destined to fail. In Sotland's case, they would be far better to align with the Euro.

The plan is to use the pound until they join the EU. Like I've said before, the EU is not open to any new members without their own currency and central bank. Neither of which Scotland have. Only the UK and Denmark ( iirc ) have an opt out to use their own currency. Adopting the euro as currency is a must for new members now.

 

Any current member of the EU can also veto their application and with Spain, Italy and Belgium all having similar issues any one of them could do it.

 

But say they do join and adopt the Euro. They're just being controlled by Brussels rather than London and they will give even less of a shit.

 

The best option is to have their own currency IMO but that will cause pain at first.

[Sugar Ape]

Of course they would need to establish a central bank. But I know that they would get favourable borrowing rates on the open market. No-one is saying this will be quick, simple or easy. While words like 'optimism' and 'energy', 'togetherness' and 'opportunity' often seem like emotional intangibles in discussions like this, it is too easy to underestimate what these attributes, when focused, can achieve. The world operates in realities. The NO camp is still alarmingly complacent or ignorant in what the realities for Scotland are. Business is business.

I know it operates in realities, my reality must be a lot different to yours. I'm sure their will be businesses willing to invest which is why Murdoch is so eager for this to happen.

 

The reality as I see it is more of the same with added insecurity.

[mattyq]

I don't see it.  You're discounting the huge surge in SMEs which will rise up to support the local economy.  Imagine being able to close tax loopholes for individuals and businesses?  You don't want to pay your way Starbucks?  Then you're not getting in.  Fuck off.  What about you, Murdoch?  

 

New banks, new industries, flexibility in providing incentives to persuade large foreign manufacturers to invest in Scotland, reduced dependence on trade deals with disreputable regimes etc etc.  

 

Scotland could easily borrow money for the transition phase at very reasonable rates through its oil revenues.    Ireland's fate was tied in to the fate of the EU.  Scotland's won't be to anywhere near the same degree.  

That sounds like some sort of Tory mantra...didn't Osborne say something similar about the private sector growing to replace all the public sector jobs that we lost?

Few problems with it - where is the capital going to be found to finance all of the new SMEs? If the market is shrinking where will the demand be for all the new SMEs?

Scotland will be a new State with no borrowing history reliant on a fluctuating oil revenue with it's largest industry, finance, decimated as it mostly moves south. This is not conducive to attractive borrowing rates, quite the opposite

Scotland will also leave the EU for at least 3 or 4 years which again will not encourage investment

I'm aware that this is all doom, gloom and misery but i think it's nailed on...it'll all come good in the end but the shock will last a generation

[Bobby Hundreds]

By the way the No vote will win.

[stringvest]

The plan is to use the pound until they join the EU. Like I've said before, the EU is not open to any new members without their own currency and central bank. Neither of which Scotland have. Only the UK and Denmark ( iirc ) have an opt out to use their own currency. Adopting the euro as currency is a must for new members now.

 

Any current member of the EU can also veto their application and with Spain, Italy and Belgium all having similar issues any one of them could do it.

 

But say they do join and adopt the Euro. They're just being controlled by Brussels rather than London and they will give even less of a shit.

 

The best option is to have their own currency IMO but that will cause pain at first.

 

Plans can change, as can entry criteria.  imo, the best way for the Jocks to go would be to set up their own currency for a minimum of 20 years before joining the Euro should the terms be favourable.  

 

btw as I'm typing I just received this.  Offering to save up to 90% of my earnings for me.  I get these almost every day and I bet there are hundreds of thousands in this country using such schemes.

 

 

 

Working with us...

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 Free to setup

 Insurance included

 Same day payments

Total compliance

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[stringvest]

I know it operates in realities, my reality must be a lot different to yours. I'm sure their will be businesses willing to invest which is why Murdoch is so eager for this to happen.

 

The reality as I see it is more of the same with added insecurity.

 

well, we've all got an opinion on this, but we may never find out.  All I know is my opinion is irrelevant.  It's up to the tartan army to leave the pub and vote.  

[Sugar Ape]

well, we've all got an opinion on this, but we may never find out. All I know is my opinion is irrelevant. It's up to the tartan army to leave the pub and vote.

Only thing I know for certain is I'm on for £150 if they vote for independence due to a bet I put on last month.

[Guest Pistonbroke]

By the way the No vote will win.

It will be rigged mate if the yes vote comes too close, I'm sure of it. 

[stringvest]

That sounds like some sort of Tory mantra...didn't Osborne say something similar about the private sector growing to replace all the public sector jobs that we lost?

Few problems with it - where is the capital going to be found to finance all of the new SMEs? If the market is shrinking where will the demand be for all the new SMEs?

Scotland will be a new State with no borrowing history reliant on a fluctuating oil revenue with it's largest industry, finance, decimated as it mostly moves south. This is not conducive to attractive borrowing rates, quite the opposite

Scotland will also leave the EU for at least 3 or 4 years which again will not encourage investment

I'm aware that this is all doom, gloom and misery but i think it's nailed on...it'll all come good in the end but the shock will last a generation

 

Speaking to people involved directly in international money markets who understand these things far better than I, they are of the opinion that Scotland could borrow at highly competitive rates.  The Scottish market would not shrink - in fact, you could more easily argue the opposite.  Scotland's own public services?  Financed through loans and providing tens or hundreds of thousands of new jobs.  Who will these people bank with?  Someone who has upped sticks and fucked off?   I suspect not.  Santander?  NAG?  It's a toughie, that.

[Nightcat]

I asked a friend of mine who works as a Professor here in the University of Mogadishu about the currency situation in Scotland always in relation to the independence; he said this:

 

Scotland will become one of the richest countries in the World if it gains independence and uses its OWN currency outside the E.U., just like Norway

 

Scotland will be fine outside the U.K. but continue using the Pound.

 

Scotland will be OK with the Pound inside the UK.

 

Scotland will be fucked outside the U.K. but inside the E.U. and by adopting the euro and handing the power the got from Westminster to the paedophiles in Brussels

 

Make of that what you will my fellow Scots.

 

Your friend from Mogadishu,

Nightcat

[Total Longo]

I'm half expecting Cameron, Miliband and Clegg to be wearing kilts and See You Jimmy hats when they come up tomorrow. .

 

[stringvest]

I asked a friend of mine who works as a Professor here in the University of Mogadishu about the currency situation in Scotland always in relation to the independence; he said this:

 

Scotland will one of the richest countries in the World if it gains independence and uses its OWN currency outside the E.U., just like Norway

 

Scotland will be fine outside the U.K. but continue using the Pound.

 

Scotland will be OK with the Pound inside the UK.

 

Scotland will be fucked outside the U.K. but inside the E.U. and by adopting the euro and handing the power the got from Westminster to the paedophiles in Brussels

 

Make of that what you will my fellow Scots.

 

Your friend from Mogadishu,

Nightcat

 

Thanks for that Robert Peston.

[xerxes]

Make no mistake, this is history in the making. And with two weeks to go the sleep seems finally to be falling from the eyes of all concerned.

 

If there is a yes vote, Cameron is finished, his name immortalised as the man who lost the Union. He then has a UKIP win in Clacton, and his own anti-European headbangers to deal with straight after.

 

Milliband loses 41 seats, and with it pretty much any chance of a 2015 outright majority. Labour too will have to reassess its electoral appeal.

 

Clegg may actually benefit as the leader not seen as being “asleep at the wheel” ,as he wasn’t seen as being a driver.

 

I am English, pro- union, but have no problem with the Scots going their own way – if that is what they want. But after 300 years they helped forge and make Great Britain, the Scotland that they seem to want seems pretty uncertain to me, outside the EU, without its own currency, and with huge set up costs to confront. Metropolitan Strathclyde would probably fare ok, but the highlands and islands will be as remote as London is now, with a dramatic loss of economies of scale/size that the Union offered. NHS, as well as postal, costs, will soar. Scottish banks will lose deposits, as is happening already, to English banks.

 

Alex Salmond could be both a winner, and loser. He would be immortalised as the man who gave independence back to Scotland, but is unlikely to be the man who delivers prosperity. Once the dream gives way to reality, like Farage, the bluster will be exposed. With independence delivered, the practicalities will not be nearly so attractive. There are no rules. Salmond will have to tear every pound out of the UK treasury, with his only option to do a deal, or be at the mercy of interminable wrangling, with Scotland, not the UK the loser.

[Paisley Red]

Cunt that he is, Murdoch always backs the winner in elections. He backed Salmond in the last two Scottish elections, he backed Blair, Blair then Cameron in the last three UK General Elections.

[mattyq]

 

Plans can change, as can entry criteria.  imo, the best way for the Jocks to go would be to set up their own currency for a minimum of 20 years before joining the Euro should the terms be favourable.  

 

btw as I'm typing I just received this.  Offering to save up to 90% of my earnings for me.  I get these almost every day and I bet there are hundreds of thousands in this country using such schemes.

 

 

 

Working with us...

Keep up to 90%

 Free to setup

 Insurance included

 Same day payments

Total compliance

The most tax efficient way to contract in the UK

We provide access to a range of tax-efficient working options for contractors who seek a more financially rewarding outcome than using an umbrella company or limited company.

 

Get a personal tax illustration based on your circumstances.IR35/Employed & LTD Company strategies.

 

 

Problem with setting up their own currency is that initially it's pretty bloody expensive. All these central bankers don't come cheap

The markets would be aware that it's a short term measure before joining the Euro so they'll be attacking it with gusto much like they did with the Pound/Emu when we lost £15 billion in 1 day

Transaction costs would rise for trade between the UK and Scotland as curren

 

Speaking to people involved directly in international money markets who understand these things far better than I, they are of the opinion that Scotland could borrow at highly competitive rates.  The Scottish market would not shrink - in fact, you could more easily argue the opposite.  Scotland's own public services?  Financed through loans and providing tens or hundreds of thousands of new jobs.  Who will these people bank with?  Someone who has upped sticks and fucked off?   I suspect not.  Santander?  NAG?  It's a toughie, that.

 

Ha, funnily enough i've heard the opposite. They're half looking forward to it as they think a great deal of money can be made out of all the chaos and half dreading it due to the aforementioned chaos

Needless to say the profits won't reside in Scotland but a nice offshore account somewhere

[stringvest]

Make no mistake, this is history in the making. And with two weeks to go the sleep seems finally to be falling from the eyes of all concerned.

 

If there is a yes vote, Cameron is finished, his name immortalised as the man who lost the Union. He then has a UKIP win in Clacton, and his own anti-European headbangers to deal with straight after.

 

Milliband loses 41 seats, and with it pretty much any chance of a 2015 outright majority. Labour too will have to reassess its electoral appeal.

 

Clegg may actually benefit as the leader not seen as being “asleep at the wheel” ,as he wasn’t seen as being a driver.

 

I am English, pro- union, but have no problem with the Scots going their own way – if that is what they want. But after 300 years they helped forge and make Great Britain, the Scotland that they seem to want seems pretty uncertain to me, outside the EU, without its own currency, and with huge set up costs to confront. Metropolitan Strathclyde would probably fare ok, but the highlands and islands will be as remote as London is now, with a dramatic loss of economies of scale/size that the Union offered. NHS, as well as postal, costs, will soar. Scottish banks will lose deposits, as is happening already, to English banks.

 

Alex Salmond could be both a winner, and loser. He would be immortalised as the man who gave independence back to Scotland, but is unlikely to be the man who delivers prosperity. Once the dream gives way to reality, like Farage, the bluster will be exposed. With independence delivered, the practicalities will not be nearly so attractive. There are no rules. Salmond will have to tear every pound out of the UK treasury, with his only option to do a deal, or be at the mercy of interminable wrangling, with Scotland, not the UK the loser.

 

 

Really good post in full Xerxes.  I don't agree with a lot of it, but you've made some points worth thinking about and discussing in there.

[stringvest]

Cunt that he is, Murdoch always backs the winner in elections. He backed Salmond in the last two Scottish elections, he backed Blair, Blair then Cameron in the last three UK General Elections.

 

He's a businessman.  He is wily, and he is ruthless, and he is undoubtedly a cunt.  He probably also knows that it won't be Salmond he's dealing with post independence.  

[xerxes]

Speaking to people involved directly in international money markets who understand these things far better than I, they are of the opinion that Scotland could borrow at highly competitive rates.  The Scottish market would not shrink - in fact, you could more easily argue the opposite.  Scotland's own public services?  Financed through loans and providing tens or hundreds of thousands of new jobs.  Who will these people bank with?  Someone who has upped sticks and fucked off?   I suspect not.  Santander?  NAG?  It's a toughie, that.

I think that the Scots will bank where their money is safest. Just now it is Scots who are moving their money to English accounts, not the banks themselves which are moving.

 

The trouble with increasing PS jobs is that the costs are a constant, the revenue to pay for them, oil money, a variable.

 

The GDP of Scotland would probably put it around that of Denmark, and have it between 30th and 40th in world GDP rankings.

 

Salmond is fond of comparing Scotland with Norway, who are 4th in the world rankings of GDP per capita. But behind that are higher taxes, a higher cost of living, a price of a pint that would make a Glaswegian weep, no NHS, and the most expensive postal charges in the world.

[stringvest]

Problem with setting up their own currency is that initially it's pretty bloody expensive. All these central bankers don't come cheap

The markets would be aware that it's a short term measure before joining the Euro so they'll be attacking it with gusto much like they did with the Pound/Emu when we lost £15 billion in 1 day

Transaction costs would rise for trade between the UK and Scotland as curren

 

 

Ha, funnily enough i've heard the opposite. They're half looking forward to it as they think a great deal of money can be made out of all the chaos and half dreading it due to the aforementioned chaos

Needless to say the profits won't reside in Scotland but a nice offshore account somewhere

 

there will always be money to be made by bankers.  It's up to Scotland to play a less passive and obliging role and control how they want that relationship to work.  This country is screwed over by banks because those in power and their friends stand to profit by it.   In the simplest terms, that's it.  People are not getting that throwing the cosy relationships in the bin and starting afresh means you negotiate how this relation works in the future.  Scotland has to hope that the people who will do this on their behalf are of a higher moral and intellectual calibre than the shitbags running the UK.  

[Sugar Ape]

Scotland has to hope that the people who will do this on their behalf are of a higher moral and intellectual calibre than the shitbags running the UK.  

 

They'll be the same as they are in the rest of UK, fuck, the rest of the western world. Blair, Brown and Darling can attest to that.

[stringvest]

They'll be the same as they are in the rest of UK, fuck, the rest of the western world. Blair, Brown and Darling can attest to that.

 

Won't be them though, they've already sold their souls.  

[Sugar Ape]

Won't be them though, they've already sold their souls.

The next generation - not just in Scotland but everywhere - won't be much better.