Referees

[sir roger]

Article by Simon Hughes in the Indy

 

Apologies for the formatting issues.

 

It is fair to say Jurgen Klopp was not in the best of moods following Liverpool’s goalless draw with Stoke. An opportunity to more or less secure a place in next season’s Champions League had been missed for the second week in a row in failure to beat a team that is likely to be relegated. He has more injury concerns with Joe Gomez. He did not like being asked again questions about the safety of Liverpool supporters in Rome, particularly when he’d sent a forceful message only the day before.

Burrowing away in his thoughts was the injustice of a penalty that had not been given. Georginio Wijnaldum’s cross had struck the arm of Erik Pieters in the final ten minutes but neither referee Andre Marriner, nor the nearest assistant, judged in Liverpool’s favour. 

Klopp had a suggestion. “Have a look at the situations where we’ve been lucky with scoring goals and you will find probably two situations around the Champions League against [Manchester] City,” he said. “Look again, look at how many penalties. Tottenham have had more penalties at Anfield than we have. We constantly have the ball, we are constantly in the box. But we don’t dive…”

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Liverpool were denied late on at Anfield (AFP)

On he went, reminding that James Milner was judged to used his arm deliberately against AS Roma the previous Tuesday even though it was perhaps less blatant. It proved to be a decisive moment because the resulting penalty was converted by Diego Perotti and this gives Roma hope in the second leg.

This is a world where any manager’s complaint is received as whinge, a rant or a quest motivated absolutely by self-interest but it is worth assessing whether Klopp’s grievances are just.

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Consider Mohamed Salah has scored 43 goals for Liverpool this season, consider he’s such an obvious threat, consider too defenders have been trying to figure out ways of stopping him for quite a while now, it is perhaps odd that he has not won a penalty since the opening day of the campaign at Watford. 

Paul Tomkins is a Liverpool supporter. He also analyses statistics and writes about his findings on his own website. He thinks the pattern runs deeper. Since 2003, Liverpool have won only half of their penalties at Anfield. Meanwhile, every other club that has been in the Premier League in that period have won between sixty and seventy-five per-cent of their penalties at home.

The role of the Kop might be an issue. Francis Lee, the Manchester City centre forward, once said that visiting teams were lucky to get a throw-in at Anfield, “never mind a serious decision.” For decades, the power of the Kop was legendary to the extent it won Liverpool points, not just because of the backing it gave the team but the impact it had on weaker referees. 

Klopp isn't happy with the officiating of his team (Liverpool FC)

Even on Saturday, Paul Lambert, the Stoke manager, referred to the Kop, “it was always going to claim…” as if claiming by the masses is like breathing - a natural and unavoidable feature of life. For decades, British managers like Lambert have repeated that Liverpool get all of the decisions at Anfield but is it really true anymore? Has the Kop’s lore and its position in football debate led to a junction where referees now show their strength by waving away penalty calls, just so they are not accused of bias? 

It might be concluded that Liverpool’s curious relationship with penalties at Anfield in the last 15 years is just an anomaly. Yet Tomkins cites that in the same period, Liverpool have won more penalties when there is an increased number of British players in the side. The statistics drop when Liverpool’s attacking players are foreign.

 

 

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Considering this season’s front three includes an Egyptian, Brazilian and a Senegalese, you do wonder whether it would be different if Liverpool instead had Michael Owen, Robbie Fowler and Emile Heskey. It proposes another question: has the narrative around diving being a “foreign disease” led to an assumption that English players are somehow more trustworthy? 

Maybe Klopp has a point. 

[A_S]

Interesting. The last season I recall a lot of penalties won was 2013/14, when you had Gerrard, Sterling and Sturridge as regulars.

[sir roger]

I'm not so sure about the foreigner angle , but think most of it is a mix of the ' Don't let the Anfield crowd intimidate you ' and how meek our players are in accepting decisions ( Milner with his hands on his hips smirking when the Roma penno was given , can you imagine United doing that ? )

 

Just saying on the Mo thread that we have got t be more arsey with refs like everybody else.

[Aventus]

I'm not so sure about the foreigner angle , but think most of it is a mix of the ' Don't let the Anfield crowd intimidate you ' and how meek our players are in accepting decisions ( Milner with his hands on his hips smirking when the Roma penno was given , can you imagine United doing that ? )

 

Just saying on the Mo thread that we have got t be more arsey with refs like everybody else.

Milner was on a yellow, so I reckon he wanted to avoid pissing the ref off by arguing over a penalty in a game we were winning 5-1.

[sir roger]

Possibly , but other than Henderson we never ever give referees grief. Any Reds fan who doesn't want VAR must be crackers.

[jsjazz]

Every match thread I feel moved to say English refs are SHIT and we need VAR. Getting a bit bored of typing it now so have a macro linked to my F1 key. But the point stands.

[Hades]

They're so bad that being called corrupt would be a compliment at this stage.

[Jennings]

That penalty decision at the end of the Roma game was awful. Raggy was desperately trying to keep his arms by his side. Never a deliberate handball.

 

It's negligent. There's no excuse. The ref should be held to account. Decisions like this perpetuate further bad decisions..."Oh I have seen them given."..."Refs give them these days".

 

With 6 officials on duty you have to get those decisions right. No excuses.

[Daisy]

It felt like he blew the whistle before it hit his hand

[VladimirIlyich]

That penalty decision at the end of the Roma game was awful. Raggy was desperately trying to keep his arms by his side. Never a deliberate handball.

 

It's negligent. There's no excuse. The ref should be held to account. Decisions like this perpetuate further bad decisions..."Oh I have seen them given."..."Refs give them these days".

 

With 6 officials on duty you have to get those decisions right. No excuses.

Klavan pointed to the official behind the goal who didn't give it yet the referee who was in a worse position did. The refereeing in the CL during our games has been largely good but this guy was terrible,even though he spotted El Sharawy's dive.

[A_S]

Klavan pointed to the official behind the goal who didn't give it yet the referee who was in a worse position did. The refereeing in the CL during our games has been largely good but this guy was terrible,even though he spotted El Sharawy's dive.

Yet didn't book him.

[VladimirIlyich]

Yet didn't book him.

Not what the Italians paid him to do.

[Stickman]

i mean how could he see tha Klavan handball yet not the TAA one?

 

And that push on Mane fuck me I was in Woolton Village and even I spotted that .

[Joe Strummer]

Not one player or fan appealed for the TAA shout, it was impossible to see.

[JustTosh]

The ref yesterday was awful. He was gifting Rome free kicks all night, yet he missed the two big penalties Roma should've had. When he eventually gave them one, it was a wrong decision, But heck do I care. That last pen was given when the match was almost over. Terrible ref though.

 

As for Roma's sulking, they should remember they were given two pens over the two legs that should never have been given.

 

Liverpool deservedly won.

[dockers_strike]

The ref yesterday was awful. He was gifting Rome free kicks all night, yet he missed the two big penalties Roma should've had. When he eventually gave them one, it was a wrong decision, But heck do I care. That last pen was given when the match was almost over. Terrible ref though.

 

As for Roma's sulking, they should remember they were given two pens over the two legs that should never have been given.

 

Liverpool deservedly won.

 

Just pray the bent twat is not given the final.

[ZonkoVille77]

#corrupt

[Lee909]

My worry will be the ref in the final

I can see them giving a freekick everytime one of the Real players hit the deck when we press them.

 

Real like most Spanish clubs can be right snidey bastards when needed

[sir roger]

Not one player or fan appealed for the TAA shout, it was impossible to see.

 

Very difficult to keep your hand by your side when you are flinging yourself forwards at the ball. 

[Vincent Vega]

I read today that we have lost all four matches we’ve played with that ref. Not surprising given his performance last night. Must be a Slovenian Manc.

[dockers_strike]

I read today that we have lost all four matches we’ve played with that ref. Not surprising given his performance last night. Must be a Slovenian Manc.

 

Yep and Roma had never won either of their 2 games he had reffed before. Go figure.

[A_S]

Yep and Roma had never won either of their 2 games he had reffed before. Go figure.

In a sense, he maintained both perfect records.

[Jennings]

Anyone see the decision in the playoff semi between 'Boro and Villa? The keeper deliberately handballed a certain goal outside the box.

 

Only got a booking.

 

 How are their bosses not holding them to account?

[J-V]

Their bosses are as bent/shit as them

[sir roger]

Liverpool unluckiest Premier League team & Manchester United luckiest, says study

 

 

• 8 hours ago
• From the sectionPremier League
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• 331

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The study found Liverpool's 0-0 draw at home to Manchester United in October would have become a 1-0 win had the Reds been awarded a penalty

Liverpool were the 'unluckiest' team in the Premier League last season while Manchester United were the 'luckiest', new research claims.

The Reds dropped 12 points in matches affected by wrongly disallowed goals or incorrect decisions on penalties and red cards, says a study conducted by ESPN, Intel and the University of Bath.

It says United gained six points over incidents that went in their favour.

Manchester City remain top in a new simulated table accounting for 'luck'.

However, the study found Huddersfield should have been relegated instead of Stoke when 'incorrect' refereeing decisions were taken into account.

It also found Brighton would have finished six places higher - moving up to ninth and earning an extra £11.5m in prize money on their return to the top flight.

Conversely, Leicester would have finished 14th instead of ninth, ending the season with £9.7m less in prize money.

Fourth-placed Liverpool would have swapped with second-placed United, and champions City fallen three points short of their 100 mark.

How did the 'Luck Index' work?

A research team collaborated with ex-Premier League referee Peter Walton, analysing footage from every game of the 2017-18 Premier League season and watching for:

• Goals that should have been disallowed
• Incorrectly disallowed goals
• Incorrectly awarded penalties (that were scored)
• Penalties that were not awarded but should have been
• Incorrect red-card decisions
• Red-card incidents that were missed
• Goals scored after injury time overran
• Deflected goals

Once incidents had been indentified, an alternative outcome of the affected matches was predicted, using a model that also considered factors including team strength, form, and home advantage.

For example: in Liverpool's 0-0 draw with Manchester United at Anfield on 14 October, the study concluded Jurgen Klopp's side should have been awarded a penalty in the 63rd minute, and the new simulated scoreline was a 1-0 victory for the home side.

Once the process was completed, the Premier League table was redrawn to reflect the new simulated results.

Premier League table 17-18   'Luck Index' simulated table 17-18  

 

Manchester City 100 Manchester City 97

Manchester United 81 Liverpool 87

Tottenham 77 Tottenham 77

Liverpool 75 Manchester United 75

Chelsea 70 Arsenal 71

Arsenal 63 Chelsea 70

Burnley 54 Burnley 50

Everton 49 Newcastle 48

Leicester 47 Brighton 46

Newcastle 44 Everton 44 

Crystal Palace 44 Crystal Palace 42

Bournemouth 44 West Ham 41

West Ham 42 Watford 41

Watford 41 Leicester 40

Brighton 40 Southampton 40

Huddersfield 37 Bournemouth 38

Southampton 36 Stoke 37

Swansea 33 Huddersfield 37

Stoke 33 Swansea 34

West Brom 31 West Brom 33

 

The research team analysed over 150 incidents and also found:

• Leicester scored three goals after injury time overran - more than any other side.
• Huddersfield's John Smith's Stadium saw the most deflected goals - five. Two of those worked in the Terriers' favour.
• Matt Ritchie was the 'luckiest player'. The Newcastle winger avoided two red cards, while a handball in the box against Leicester went unnoticed.

Assistant Professor Thomas Curran from the University of Bath said each game was simulated "thousands of times to model how it should have turned out".

He said the project was "one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted".

Former referee Walton added: "The results demonstrate the impact and importance of refereeing decisions on a game.

"With the Premier League deciding not to introduce VAR for the coming season, it is interesting to see how much luck plays a part in the way the league unfolds."

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