Cheltenham Friday Gold Cup Day

[bobhorse]

Friday 16th March Cheltenham selections

12:30
The David Nicholson Mares Hurdle Race
This is a New Race so no trends to follow but I think if you follow the basics then you want go far wrong you will have to stay and act in the soft so who are the leading players in this

Short list
Sweet Kiln - looks the bets of the Irish she is tough as old boots
Chomba Womba - has had this as her target all season will love the 2m4f and is a worthy fav
Labelthou - another who will love the ground & course will be staying on up the hill and looks an e/way banker @8/1 had Gaspara and Refinement behind over 3m but went to the front 4 from home in that race on the bit so she should confirm that form
Whiteoak - I have followed this horse all season and thought that she was a likely winner @ Cheltenham I have concerns over the yards form but at 28/1 I will be on e/way
Theatre Girl- Trained by Nicholson’s former Pupil A King who would love to win this made Chomba Womba work very hard at Doncaster trainer believes she will be better over the extra 4f
A race for forecasts for me and I will have a couple of e/way bets and a win on Chomba Womba

13:05
Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle
Short list

Forpadedeplasterer 5/1 = looks the best of the Irish to me the last 10 Irish winners of this race all won at Leopardstown before taking this and he fit’s the bill

Breedsbreeze 8/1 = won a good trial race for this form a top stable ticks the right boxes
Group Captain 5/1 = is unbeaten and has never been off the bridal in his races he could be anything and should be respected
Aigle D’or 11/2 = unbeaten in two runs fit’s the profile of a winner as do the other there are more horses not listed here that fit the profile so if you fancy one of them don’t be put off

Don’t back any horse who didn’t finish 1st or 2nd on its last start don’t back any horse beaten further than 2l LTO and don’t back horses older than 6y old or 4y olds don’t back any horse that ran within 15 days of this race and don’t back any horse who ran 80 days or more ago don’t back horses coming from handicaps or class D or E races don’t back any horse 16/1 or bigger your selection should have ran 4 or 5 times if it has ran less than 4 times then it should have won 50% of its races minimum and not been out of the first 2 20of the last 22 winners came from the first 6 in the betting don’t go looking for outsiders 19 of the last 21 winners ran at least 3 times
18 of the last 20 had a win over at least 2m4f the two that hadn’t where both Irish trained

13:40
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

Horses carrying less than 11st and lightly raced running no more than 5 times in the seaon
4 of the last 5 won there last race prior to winning this
Irish have won 5 out of the last 13 runnings
7 of the last 12 ran only 3 times in the season before winning this
Only 1 fav in last 9 won
6-9 year olds have the best record in this
7 out of 10 OR 127-138

Short List

County Zen
Astrador
Naiad Du Misselot
Song of Songs
Clarnazar
Superior Wisdom
Junior

Very small stakes and a bet only if you must small stake forecast combos or e/way bets the key


14:15
JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO only)

Short list

For this race you have to have won your Prep race and had a rest of at least 19 days since last run that leaves just 5 out of the 15 left in normally would have won at least 2 races this season the last 9 winners had had no more than 1 completed run outside the top 4 all had the last 2 runs in the top 4 12-13 won last time out only 1 winner of this race rated below 80 on the flat only to ex flat horses pass that mark Temlett Celestial Halo with the ground likely to be testing I think this will go to a stayer rather than a speedster the last 9 winners had all ran at least 3 times before running in this

Short List

Songe = 9/2
Serabad = 17/2
Personal Column = 6/1
Franchoek 6/4 = has been my long term fancy for this along with Binocular and I have him at much bigger odds
Beau Michael 11/1 = I have backed him 4 times this season and he has won 3 best of the Irish IMHO jumps gallops and stays
Five Dream 17/2 = would be one I include his last race was in a top handicap against his elders had he ran against his own age group he would have met the profile and loves soft ground also ran 2 seconds quicker than Breedbreeze


I will be going for Forecasts on the day (Celestial Halo is a big Tip from many people but I cant have him on this ground even if he does win it )





14:50
The Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)


Well the last 3 winners ran between 3-5 times before winning this 2 winning and 1 2 LTO the last 2 never out of the first 2 winners age 5 6 & 7yolds have won the three runnings the fav has won the last 2 and was 3rd in the other
8of the 9 won or where 2nd LTO that makes a short list of 9
7of the9 win and place horses where less than 10/1
7of the9 win and place horses had run over 3m
I have narrowed them down to the following horses

Short list

The Tother One = a good horse who could be anything unbeaten from Top yard
Parsons Pistol = 25/1 for a distace winner who has never been out the first 2 seems decent e/way odds
Nenuphar Collonges 16/1 = this is the Horse that I like the look of he was 2nd in a race that has thrown up 2 winners and a 3rd in the three past races
Caruthers = would be a very popular winner of this good form lines CD form fancied
Lodge Lane = a horse I have backed every time he has run just keeps finding enough

Something for everyone there small stakes and combos again for me



15:30
totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

We have the best chaser in the last 20 years over all three distances and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Kauto Star I cant back him at this price I have backed him big style at much higher odds than he is now and I wont be laying them off either

Kauto Star 7/4 = its simple if he jumps he wins
Exotic Dancer 12/1 = I think he is going to fill second place if he is the same horse as last season 3rd in the King George 2nd Our Vic won Yesterday it looks nailed to me
Denman 6/4 = I just don’t get this horse at all I don’t think he is as good as they make him out to be I could be way wrong and it will cost me if I am as I have laid him big time for this race
Knowhere = 33/1 done this for place only as he stays and loves Cheltenham
Only look at horse OR 160+ that leaves you with only 7 to choose from 1,5,6,8,10,12,14,

I will have a ew on Knowhere and do the forecasts Kauto to beat the other 2


16:05
Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup (Class 2) (5YO plus)

15of the last 17 where no older than 9y old the last 14 had won a race under rules
P Nicholls last 2 runners both won this race
The Irish trained runners have filled 7 of the top 8 positions the last 2 season only Drombeag winning for JJ O’Neil stopped a clean sweep

Short List

Lou Du Moulin Mas = Nicholls record says this will win as he had 4 or 5 to choose from fro this race
Southwestern = I have backed this one a big odds for this race should run well
Angus A Vic = Right age seems to be best of the Irish team
Drombeag = won last year after a year off so he could do it again and is the reason he is included

I think that short list should include the winner but with winners ‘ 20/1 3 times 16/1 and 14/1 don’t let price put you off

Small stakes

16:40
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Handicap Chase (Gd3) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

Horses carrying more than 11st are 0 from 29 since 1998 but I would only rule out the top two on weight due to a better class of runner in this race
34 of the last 36 win and place horse where under 10 y old so that rules out 6 horses now
A top 3 finish LTO is a must that rules out another 5 leaving 8 left
None had run more than 5 times before winning this only 2 are left now they are Enlightenment & My Petra so I will have to find one or two to go with them

Enlightenment 10/1= looks a type for this race from Ireland
My Petra 9/2 = couldn’t beat Dempsey last time out and now we know why
Mister Quasimodo 16/1 = regulars will know I really like this one and feel he is upto a race like this even if he doesn’t meet the profile being bang on 11st and ran 6 times but one of those he was Pulled up when he ran without Blinkers so I can ignore that run
Hasty Prince 10/1= Many of you will remember me telling you when he ran 5th to Howle Hill at Doncaster last time that I thought he ran that race with Cheltenham in mind and was a lot better than his place suggested his 2nd at Sandown to Masterminded with Howle Hill behind looks top class now

Well they will be my picks and I will try to see if I can make them all pay


17:20
Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

If you haven’t won by now then don’t bother put if you must have a look at 5 y olds who won with in the last two races or where in the first 4 last time out but I will have six on my short list No winner has carried 11st8lbs or more since 1968 that takes out the top 3 16 of the last 19 winners finished in the first 3 LTO
32 of the last 33 winners started at no bigger than 16/1 so
Short List


Premier Dane 33/1= had this @ 100/1 last year when it placed in this race
French Saulaie 33/1= trainer had 2 winners of this from only 13 runners
Wanango 8/1= JP Mc’s been chasing well fancied might end the meeting with a bang take a price if you fancy it as it will shorten like all the rest
Freeloader 20/1= been off for a while fit’s the profile other than that
Wingman 10/1 = won a race that has thrown up the winner of this a few times
Silver Jaro 28/1 = had this as an e/way banker when it was placed in the Ladbroke
Dark Bolero 33/1= fit’s the profile light weight with claimer on top
Mon Michel 10/1= is one I have liked the look of for a while and stable jockey has taken the mount over trainers other 2 runners

The winner of this 8 times in the last 9 seasons has been in the first 4 in the betting I would back all 4 and hope the biggest priced one wins if you have to find the winner


Good Luck to everyone

[bigal]

Hi Bob. Good luck. I agree with you about Mon Michel, Exotic Dancer, Whiteoak and County Zen. I'm mainly backing out of the chase handicaps as they are costing me. I can't have Group Captain, it's too soft and I don't think it'll battle this race out. I do like Celestial Halo, Nicholls thinks it's got an excellent chance and I thinkit was undercooked last time. However, Franchoek will take some passing. There's no great enthusiam for Premmier Dane from the yard though EW whispers about Middleton Dene earlier. A great day ahead, I'm at work so enjoy

[L.Garcia]

My selections for today:

12.30-Gaspara
13.05-Forpaddydeplasterer
13.40-Song of Songs
14:15- Franchoek
14:50- The Tother One
15:30- Denman
16:05- Lou Du Moulin Mas
16:40- Enlightenment
17:20- Wingman

[bobhorse]

I hope you all took the 28/1 e/way on the first winner

[bobhorse]

Fiveforthree wins the second race in an Irish 1,2,3,

[bobhorse]

13:40
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

Horses carrying less than 11st and lightly raced running no more than 5 times in the seaon
4 of the last 5 won there last race prior to winning this
Irish have won 5 out of the last 13 runnings
7 of the last 12 ran only 3 times in the season before winning this
Only 1 fav in last 9 won
6-9 year olds have the best record in this
7 out of 10 OR 127-138

Short List

County Zen
Astrador
Naiad Du Misselot
Song of Songs
Clarnazar
Superior Wisdom
Junior


Nice winner again hope you where on almost had the forecast 1st 7/1 and 3rd 12/1

[bobhorse]

14:15
JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO only)

Short list

For this race you have to have won your Prep race and had a rest of at least 19 days since last run that leaves just 5 out of the 15 left in normally would have won at least 2 races this season the last 9 winners had had no more than 1 completed run outside the top 4 all had the last 2 runs in the top 4 12-13 won last time out only 1 winner of this race rated below 80 on the flat only to ex flat horses pass that mark Temlett Celestial Halo with the ground likely to be testing I think this will go to a stayer rather than a speedster the last 9 winners had all ran at least 3 times before running in this

Short List

Songe = 9/2
Serabad = 17/2
Personal Column = 6/1
Franchoek 6/4 = has been my long term fancy for this along with Binocular and I have him at much bigger odds
Beau Michael 11/1 = I have backed him 4 times this season and he has won 3 best of the Irish IMHO jumps gallops and stays
Five Dream 17/2 = would be one I include his last race was in a top handicap against his elders had he ran against his own age group he would have met the profile and loves soft ground also ran 2 seconds quicker than Breedbreeze


I will be going for Forecasts on the day (Celestial Halo is a big Tip from many people but I cant have him on this ground even if he does win it )


Well i had the forecast and backed Celestial Halo in the end E/way thanks to BigAl even though i didnt fancy it i couldnt back Franchoek at that price so had the forecast the flat Stat was the one thing that made me change my mind BigAl was certain it would win so i rode in with it in the end not for big money but the R/forecast £10.55 i had to a nice stake that is 3 out of 4 now but i do wish i had listened and had a proper bet on it last month

[bobhorse]

I have done 2 forecasts in the Gold Cup Kauto Star to beat
Exotic and Neptune

I cant take these short prices at Cheltenham and is the reason i couldnt back
Inglis Dreaver had it at bigger anti post and laid it
Franchoek way way to short a price you want 4/1 the field at Cheltenham
Kauto Star have it at 5/2

I hope you all backed Ruby at 9/4 for top Jockey was outsatanding price

[bobhorse]

Get in you beauty 16/1 another one for the Horse what a day this is turning into

[loadsoftrophies]

Great work Bobhorse.

[bobhorse]

14:50
The Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)


Well the last 3 winners ran between 3-5 times before winning this 2 winning and 1 2 LTO the last 2 never out of the first 2 winners age 5 6 & 7yolds have won the three runnings the fav has won the last 2 and was 3rd in the other
8of the 9 won or where 2nd LTO that makes a short list of 9
7of the9 win and place horses where less than 10/1
7of the9 win and place horses had run over 3m
I have narrowed them down to the following horses

Short list

The Tother One 3rd = a good horse who could be anything unbeaten from Top yard
Parsons Pistol = 25/1 for a distace winner who has never been out the first 2 seems decent e/way odds
Nenuphar Collonges 16/1 Winner = this is the Horse that I like the look of he was 2nd in a race that has thrown up 2 winners and a 3rd in the three past races
Caruthers = would be a very popular winner of this good form lines CD form fancied
Lodge Lane = a horse I have backed every time he has run just keeps finding enough

Something for everyone there small stakes and combos again for me

nice little winner and almost another forecast for me it just gets better and better

[bobhorse]

If kauto Star wins the Gold Cup Ruby will be top Jockey he is Joint leader with 3 he will go to 4 and there will only be 2 races left that should be enough ? to land the 9/4

[WaltonRed]

I think im going to dabble on Mon Michel if i can be bothered walking the bookies.

[loadsoftrophies]

Anyone hear the Kauto star and Denman song, so bad its brilliant.

[PaddyBerger15]

Uncle Bob feeds the faces of folk again, nice work mate.

[bobhorse]

as long as it helps a few reds fans make a shilling i'm happy

This is the big one i just have such a strong view against Denman i just hope im right and he doesnt go and piss up but i just couldnt have a bean on him if he was 10/1 i just dont see his form in Group 1 races but we will know in a bit may the best horse win and they all get round safe