Cheltenham 3rd day short list

[bobhorse]

Tursday 15th March Cheltenham selections
14:00
Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

Short list

One of the new races at the festival I would say a winner last time out and at the head of the market seem to be the order of the day with past festival form a bonus

Short List

New Little Bric = 11/2
Limited Edition = 12/1
Dictum = 22/1
Chief Yeoman = 16/1
Rash arrow = 28/1
King Revo = 9/2

wouldn’t be wanting to look any further than the list above but I like the look of New Little Bric his only defeat was behind Fair Along and My Way De Zolzan but can he give the weight





14:35
Ryanair Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Short list
Another new race both previous winners have gone to the 1st 2 in the betting Thisthatandtother won the first and he beat Fondmort who went on to win last years older chases do well winners 9y old and 10y old and both from top Yards Henderson has had a winner and a 2nd Nicholls 1 winner and a 4th

Monet's Garden = 3/1
Thisthatandtother = 16/1
Racing Demon = 6/1
Taranis = 9/2
Cruzan = 25/1 eway bet as he is from Hendersons Yard and as such you have to take notice

Forcasts combos for this race

15:15
Ladbroke World Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Cant look outside the first four in the betting

Black Jack Ketchum = 9/4 ignore his last run and he is a banker the faster ground will be in his favour but still a ? over his last run as it was to bad to be true


Inglis Drever = 5/1 past winner who seems to be coming back to his best wouldn’t put you off him but he would be the first to regain the title 2 years after winning it
Mighty Man = 5/1 Im a Mighty man fan any horse that can beat My way de zolzen has to be a goodun and 5/1 looks good

Blazing Bailey = 7/1 5 year olds have a terrible record and he would have to overcome this fact


16:00
Racing Post Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

French breads have an excellent record and I wouldn’t look outside this group Pipe and Henderson have won 6 out of the last 10 Henry Daly has won it with a Horse on his Debut so you would have to include him in any short list

Short List

Madison Du Berlais = 14/1 a Pipe French bread so would be of interest
Vodka Bleu = 10/1 a Pipe French bread so would be of interest
Palarshan = 40/1French bread trained by Daly worth a look at the price
Moncadou = 8/1 French trained and bread from leading owner with top Jockey on
Kelrev = 40/1has been placed in this race before
No Full = 28/1French bread with a chance of a place
Iron Man = 66/1 included by being a French bread but I don’t think he has the form to win this

I have left off the Nichols runners French bread or not as the best he has ever managed in this race is 7th worth opposing his runners in this
Might be an idea to link theses in forcast tricast combos big winnings for small stakes


16:40
137th Year Of National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateurs') (Class 2) (5YO plus)


7y old or older good Jockey in the first 7 in the betting also any JP McManus owned horse

I like the look of a couple in this race but its one to watch
Nine De Sivola
Garde Champetre


17:20
Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final (Listed) (Class 1) (5YO plus)

I like the look of a few in this race
Material World = 16/1
Hirvine = 18/1
Monolith = 10/1
Nirvana Du Bourg = 12/1

Will again be doing forcasts and e/ways on these

Well that is the 3rd day covered hope you have a good day Good Luck

[Carradona]

Are you up in money over the two days so far?

[Paco]

Can't believe I didn't back Burntoakboy or cloudy lane yesterday. Best result I had was aranleigh third. I took a hiding yesterday.

backed my way de solzen on the first day and also had the third in that race.

back to the drawing board today

[bobhorse]

Originally Posted by Carradonna Are you up in money over the two days so far?

I was up over 12k on the first day down around £200 on the second should at least break even today but regardless i expect to be £10k up at least on the weeek

[bobhorse]

£50 ew on New Little Brick 11/2 = -£100
£25 ew Rasharrow 28/1 = £200 -£50
3 X £10 R/Fcasts = -£60
New little Brick
Rasharrow
Limited Addition
so lost £10 on the race but at one point i thought i had the forcast in the bag with them running 123

Just to show even when you dont get the winner you can still make money

without the forcasts i would have been £50 up on the race

durring the meeting i would say i work on £200 a race so the meeting would cost me £5k if i failed to have a winner, a lot of money.
most of that isnt my money i will have backed some of these to win on the run up to the festival building up my bank
I start the year with a bank of £500 and aim to grow it to cover Cheltenham and hope after Cheltenham, i have a bank left for Aintree.
if not i have to play with my own money and the stakes are a lot lower

[bobhorse]

I have had £200 on Moncadou @ 8/1 and i have now laid it at 9/2 to £200

so if it loses i get me £200 back if it wins i have £200 @8/1= £1800
but i would owe £200 @9/2 = £1100 so i will only win £700 but either way i cant loose

I have done the same with Garde Champetre i have £200 to win at 22/1 and i will lay that bet off at much shorter odds before the off i took a gamble that it would shorten but its a JP horse so i thought that it was a cert to be backed if i can lay it to single figure odds i will be laughing

[bobhorse]

£100 to win on Monet's Garden @3/1
£25 eway Crozan @33/1

3 x £10 r/forcasts
Crozan
Monets Garden
Thisthatandtother

[bobhorse]

hope someone backed the winner Nicholls now 1 4 1 in the three runnings
Thought Hendersons Crozan was running a big race till he fell

I have had 7x £10 way bets on all picks in the next as well as the £200 on Moncadou which i have laid off as i sad

so i hope to get my loses back here
so far Today
-£220 plus iv staked £340 so -£560 with £200 of that comming back regardless of result so the worse case i will be £360 down after the next race but i have 7 runners to try to get something back plus if Moncadou wins i will be £700 to the good plus £10 e/w @8/1 on him

I dont see this as gambling but investing on outcomes and try to make sure im covered i hope this makes sense to someone and it might just change the way you look at horse racing and betting

[bobhorse]

iv backed 3 here

Mighty Man £100 @ 5/1 now laid it off at 39/10
Inglis Drever £100 @5/1
Overstrand £25 eway @ 33/1 laid it off @20/1

so i have laid out £250 laid off £150 so at worse i will be down £100

[Strontium Dog]

Congrats again bobhorse!

[bobhorse]

that will do £500 profit so even with a blank on the next race i will be in front
£140 with 2 races left

[Sangria]

That is serious stuff mate, you certainly know what you are doing.

[LEF]

I havent a clue with all that laid off shernanigans, Tri casts, higitipops ect. I had Mighty Man EW, I always have Mighty Man and that is 4 times it has won me money now.

[bobhorse]

i have them in forcast combos for £2 stake

[bobhorse]

How well did Palashan run off the course for almost 2 years and to come back and run 2nd i had 40/1 eway never going to win but brilliant job by his trainer

[bobhorse]

around £250 on the day with 2 races to go so it should be at worse even
on the day i have laid my bet on Garde Champetre at 12/1 so if it wins i will be £2k up if it loses i will be all square i have £50 eway on Nine De Sivola
@16/1 and i think i might lay that off @8/1

so now i have 2 bets in effect now
£200 @10/1 Garde Champetre
£50 ew @ 8/1 Nine De Sivola

and both of them are free bets so i cant lose on the race

[bobhorse]

I have had 4 x £20 eway singles and 6 £10 R/Fcasts

Material World = 16/1
Hirvine = 18/1
Monolith = 10/1
Nirvana Du Bourg = 12/1

Monolith with the other 3
Nirvana Du Bourg with the other 3

total £280 wich will be _£30 on the day so i might lay a little bit off me eway bets to make sure i stay even i have laid off £20 ew Nirvina Du Bourg at 19/2 so the worse i can be is £10 up on the day

[captainharris]

I really wish i understood some of this.