What if Liverpool finish fifth (or lower)?

StevieH · #1 (**permalink**) 21st March 2010, 08:22 AM

What if Liverpool finish fifth (or lower)? | Liverpool - Times Online

Will Torres leave if Liverpool don’t finish fourth?
Where would failure to finish in the top four leave Benitez?
Will Tom Hicks and George Gillett be forced to sell?

What if you walk through a storm but the golden sky at the end of it is no more than the light of a false dawn? Twelve months ago, Liverpool laid waste to Manchester United at Old Trafford. It seemed difficult times were behind them and, at last, a new day would begin for the club. The Premier League title looked possible for Rafa Benitez and his side and Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres were an attacking tandem not even the best — Nemanja Vidic certainly not — could curb.

Instead we got Groundhog Day. United won the league, reached another Champions League final and are chasing both prizes again. Liverpool missed out and, since, have been farther than ever from regaining the position of England’s most successful team.

Dysfunctional — Sir Alex Ferguson’s new favourite word — does not begin to describe life at Anfield. Co-owner rubs against co-owner; fans agree they hate both. Benitez cold-shoulders players; Albert Riera calls Liverpool a “sinking ship” and even loyal ones, such as Torres and Jamie Carragher, are frustrated at the club’s lack of progress. One of Koppites’ few consolations is that there are dark heavens over Old Trafford too, with 140,000 now having signed up for MUST (Manchester United Supporters’ Trust) and their anti-Glazer “Green and Gold” campaign.

Benitez, in each of five seasons with Liverpool, prepared sides that finished campaigns strongly and the Spaniard has shown himself to be the Rasputin of managers. Just when you think he is dying he gets up off the ice, shakes the bullet from his back, coughs out the poison and lives again. This season he has won big matches against Everton, Tottenham and United when defeats might have finished him.

It would be in keeping with Benitez’s history if, today, Liverpool shocked their way to victory again and went on to end the season well. But Rasputin couldn’t dodge doom for ever. What if United win? Finishing fourth, with Manchester City, Aston Villa and Tottenham holding advantages in the race for that spot, is difficult enough. A bad 90 minutes at Old Trafford, one that might propel United to beat Liverpool’s record of 18 English titles, would cast shadows over the run-in at Anfield.

So, Groundhog Day, another D-Day for Benitez and all at Anfield. Here are three questions to be faced.

Will Torres leave if Liverpool don’t finish fourth?

Riera was fined and told to stay away from the training ground after his outburst that “the team is playing badly and needs changes” but a comforting arm has been thrown around Torres since he said, in an interview with a Spanish newspaper, he would seek to quit Anfield should Liverpool not buy top-quality players (Torres thinks they need “four or five”) and not put themselves into a position to challenge for the title and in Europe next season. The Anfield hierarchy believe the striker’s sentiments were manipulated by his interviewer and Benitez also wants a summer of big signings, so Torres’ statements might aid his own agenda.

Benitez has raised about £120m for Liverpool via his largely successful Champions League campaigns since 2004 and failure to qualify for next year’s competition would cost the club at least £20m. That, and the reduced glamour of being “a Europa League club” would severely weaken Anfield’s transfer muscle. But both Benitez and Christian Purslow, Liverpool’s chief executive, will stand absolutely firm against attempts by rival clubs to lure Torres in the close season. These are expected to come principally from Manchester City and Barcelona (where Torres may find himself a pawn in Barça’s presidental elections), but Chelsea, Real Madrid — and, horror of horrors — United would also consider making bids. A price of £50m is seen, in the market, as Torres’ value but the message coming out of Anfield is that he is not for sale at any price.

Torres is contracted until 2013 and is now seen as even more important than Gerrard to Liverpool’s global marketing strategies. Last summer, through it may have been more medically prudent to rest him after 11 months of continuous football (Torres was to go on and break down with injuries in November and January), he was flown straight from the Confederations Cup to play in Liverpool’s tour of the Far East because the promoters demanded he play.

Benitez is confident of reassuring Torres he should stay. “I can talk with him and we can go forward. Fernando is a professional who plays hard and is really happy here,” Benitez said. “We don’t want to sell Fernando to anybody.” Coruscating performances, and four goals, against Portsmouth and Lille in the week suggest El Nino is ready to gust into Old Trafford and test Vidic, sent off the past three times he has faced Liverpool, severely once again.

Where would failure to finish in the top four leave Benitez?

Things have got so bad for Rafa even Ferguson expressed sympathy. His tenure at Liverpool is longer than Gerard Houllier’s. The way the team have gone backwards after early trophies and subsequent promise seems reminiscent of the Frenchman’s reign. So does the way an avuncular image has changed to an embattled one. But Benitez is in a stronger position than Houllier ever was. Not all, but a significant proportion of fans, still see him as their champion and the five-year contract he signed last May means he is due a massive payoff should he be sacked. A respected football analyst estimated that firing Benitez and most of his 20-plus backroom staff would cost Liverpol upwards of £30m.

Though there is discontent within Liverpool’s ownership structure at aspects of the Spaniard’s performance, there is no will to replace him even if Jose Mourinho would consider taking over. Benitez would be most likely to leave if he tired of the pressure and politicking at Anfield and leapt at an offer from another club. Real Madrid are odds-on to jettison Manuel Pellegrini but, for style of play and personality reasons, their president, Florentino Perez, would approach Benitez reluctantly. Juventus and Inter Milan (if Mourinho leaves) are likelier for job offers.

Benitez and his family love life on Merseyside and he wants to stay but his discontent at Liverpool’s transfer budget has resurfaced. Asked whether his task of trying to overhaul United is similar-but-in-reverse to the one Ferguson faced 24 years ago, when he arrived in England vowing to knock Liverpool off their perch, Benitez replied: “I could read his words but it is different. If you talk about what they have and what we have, it is different. Especially with money. At the moment we have to reduce this gap in the transfer market and on the pitch.

“This year expectations were too high and when we couldn’t win the first games we lost confidence and people thought the squad was not as good as it really is. It is better than people think and it could be even better with some players playing without injuries. But we can’t change the situation, we have to be ready for the future. That is short term, the United game and the other games this year. After, we have to be ready for next season. We have to work and deal with the possibilities we have and do the best for the club.”

Will Tom Hicks and George Gillett be forced to sell?

Liverpool’s pilloried American overlords have to find £100m to pay back RBS, to whom the bulk of Liverpool’s arrears of £237m are owned. The bank, now publicly owned, believes it is in no position to give special dispensation to a foreign-owned football club and may even be prepared to “pull the plug” on Hicks and Gillett if they don’t get their money. A New York private equity firm, The Rhone Group, has offered to give RBS the £100m in return for 40% of Liverpool, thus reducing Hicks and Gillett to minority shareholders. Hicks (so entrenched he tried to deny the offer existed last weekend) sees the Rhone Group proposal as opportunistic and undervaluing his 50% stake in Liverpool.

Gillett is also seeking a much higher offer but has a softer stance. The opportunity of investing in Liverpool is thought to have brought to The Rhone Group by a middleman who previously has worked closely with Gillett on Liverpool projects. Gillett is understood to be prepared to relinquish his shareholding should new owners be identified who could take the club forward where he and Hicks have failed.

The Rhone Group hopes that by easing Liverpool’s bank pressures, the club would be able to borrow up to 60% of the cost of building a new stadium, with the rest possibly from naming rights. Up to half a dozen other investors are said to be eyeing Liverpool but waiting to see whether the club qualify for next season’s Champions League before making a move, leaving The Rhone Group’s proposal as the only serious offer on the table for Hicks and Gillett.

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