Consecutive convincing wins against two of the more esteemed and cash-rich clubs, and suddenly a wave of pessimism is swept away by a tide of belief.
http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/news/drill...60927-0819.htm
Last season it took until mid-October to get the league form in full flow. Now the Reds appear to be fully up and running a whole month earlier. Clearly the idea that the season was over after four games was ludicrously premature. The Reds have plundered six points in the last two games, while Manchester United, the early pacesetters, have dropped five points in a week. That's how quickly things change.
This is now Benítez's squad, but it could still be a couple more months before the newly-assembled team is at its best. In the meantime it's important to get as many points on the board as possible, and continue to build some momentum. Squad rotation, and the fitness preparation of the players, will lead to benefits in the new year; rather than be out in the lead at the halfway stage the Reds merely need to be well placed.
Most of the new players continue to show signs of settling in well, and even those who have yet to find their best form have added an extra dimension in some form or other; they've helped change the style of play.
I don't think there's ever been a time in the history of the club when just getting into the squad of 16 was such a challenge. People talk about not knowing what the best XI is, and indeed, some even suggest that Rafa himself does not know his best team. But when such assumptions are because there are so many good options, that's a nice problem to have; it's not like he's struggling to find eleven decent players.
And with fitness, form, freshness and injuries all to be taken into account, is there ever a definitive 'best team' anyway? Is it better to play your best player when he's unfit and lacking confidence, or a slightly inferior player who's in the form of his life? Or is it so wrong to pick a player to exploit an opponent's glaring weakness? Rafa picks teams that can win games, and therefore win trophies, and over the past five years he's proved as good as anybody at doing so.
Some fans wanted to know where Crouch, Gonzalez, Fowler and Garcia were during the Chelsea game; had they played, it would have been four others whose absence was being pondered. The truth is some very good players will be in the stands, in suits, on match days. Crouch will be disappointed at not having started the last four games, and Fowler will be frustrated at not being in the squad. But their time will come. No one is excluded for too long.
Rafa clearly likes flexibility, options. It's not just the number of players at his disposal who could walk into most Premiership teams, but the sheer variety of their talents. No two players are stylistically akin. They may share some traits, but each offers something different, to change the pattern of a game.
There are now two pacy wingers at the club, who are capable of hitting the byline. There's also Steven Gerrard, who can deliver sublime quality from the right flank, or drift infield from the left side onto his right foot, into goalscoring positions. But when Luis Garcia plays wide, it's a totally different proposition.
The shape of the team can be changed so radically from one game to the next; at times it may backfire, as can any team selection on any given day, but on the whole it adds two or three extra dimensions. In theory, every month this newly assembled squad spends together then so its effectiveness should grow. New players will develop understandings with the existing players, and everyone will understand his own role that bit better. Of all the top clubs, Liverpool are currently integrating the most key new players. And that even includes a January newcomer in Daniel Agger, who has yet to play a dozen games for the club, but at times looks like he's played 200.
One of the things I've been working on with statistician Oliver Anderson is something called 'goal effect'. It was developed for our book, The Red Review, but it's something we continue to monitor. Goal effect is something to measure how each player's inclusion in the team effects the amount of goals scored and conceded, when compared with the team's average over the course of the season. It's their own individual 'goal difference' rating.
For instance, when Didi Hamann played last season the Reds conceded fractionally less than the norm, but the team also scored 10 fewer goals than average during his total minutes on the pitch. Other players, like Peter Crouch and Harry Kewell, helped the team score a lot more than the average, but their inclusion coincided with the Reds conceding more.
Of course a lot depends on which games these players featured in, and what their role was (for instance, Hamann's was often to come on late in games to help shut up shop). But it's another way to look at the players who might not be grabbing the headlines, but whose inclusion in the team has positive effects.
As with all stats, the smaller the sample period, the more likely it is to be skewed; longer periods start to show genuine trends. Last season Agger, in his mere four league games, possessed one of the top rates for the Reds. He had by far the best average when it came to the amount of goals the Reds scored in his games; the team also won a far greater number of points than they averaged over all 62 games (based on three points for cup wins). Over the course of the season, the team averaged 2.09 points per game; in Agger's four that went up to 2.50.
But of course, that was such a small sample. The interesting thing, however, is that it is a trend that has only strengthened this time around. The sample is still fairly small, but Agger's presence in the team certainly seems to be having a positive effect. Is it merely coincidental?
Luis Garcia is another player who continues to show up impressively; his minutes may have been limited over the past 14 months, but in those minutes he has been directly involved in more Premiership goals than any other Liverpool player.
For the book, Oliver and I developed an assist system that takes into account the last two passes, not just the final ball. It's not designed to measure the 'killer' pass, as that could be any in the move: final, penultimate (like Alonso's for Kuyt's goal against Newcastle), or even earlier. It's more a measure of those players who have a direct involvement in goals; those who help provide a cutting edge.
Last year, the top player when adding together assists and goals-per-minute in Premiership play was Luis Garcia. While he is yet to open his scoring account this season, he is already 'assisting' goals at a phenomenal rate: nearly 1.4 for every 90 minutes of league football. (Last season he was top of the Liverpool chart in this category, with 0.51 assists every 90 minutes. His current rate is nearly three times as prolific).
Say what you like about stats, but findings like these highlight the belief many fans hold: Luis Garcia makes things happen.
Another facet of play mentioned in this column is the number of long range goals the Reds score, and how few they concede. John Arne Riise's goal on Saturday was the 50th scored by Liverpool from outside the box since Benítez arrived. But at the rate Xabi Alonso is going, we might have to start measuring goals from even further out.
Precious few players score one goal from inside their own half in their entire careers, let alone two consecutively: one with the left foot, the other with the right. (What next, a header from the halfway line?)
While Alonso's goal rightly won the headlines last Wednesday, Dirk Kuyt's was the more important. Not only did it end the club's barren spell of three games, and ultimately decide the match, it also got the Dutchman off the mark in English football. The first goal for any striker is nearly always the hardest, especially when going up a level in quality or competitiveness.
There may be more technically gifted strikers in the game, but few who work as hard, and who are as mentally and physically tough. I have seen comparisons with Kevin Keegan and Mark Hughes; Kuyt certainly possesses Keegan's energy and ability to make the most out of his talent, while he has Hughes' physique and hold-up ability. But there's also a more predatory nature than either of those two luminaries.
I'd always prefer to see someone like Kuyt in the side – an up-and-coming, hungry team player – than an older superstar such as Ronaldo. Kuyt's enthusiasm and perfect attitude lifts his team-mates. He is the kind of player who unites a team. But he can still get the goals that win games.
The more players like Kuyt, Carragher, Gerrard and Sissoko you have in your side then the greater that indefinable extra amount of effort you get from the whole: when the team exceeds the sum of its parts. Hard work becomes infectious. Peter Crouch is similar, in that he plays for the team, and Craig Bellamy's style involves never letting up and taking a rest. There's not one 'passenger' in this squad. Whatever team Rafa picks will contain match-winners and, frankly, just winners.
It just needed those two home games to give the league a more realistic appearance, and to even out the home and away fixtures. Now there is clearly some momentum, and with three clean sheets in four games, some of the familiar stability at the back, too. There's a long way to go, but the race is underway.
