[real red]

Another theory on this is that Dubai won't buy 50%.

Think of how 50% might work for them.

Either a) They'd be stuck with Tom Hicks as partner and it would as unworkable as the current situation is. Hicks and DIC would have equal say (forget the board split 4-2 stuff because it really is irrelevant) and so would block anything they didn't like the other doing. DIC don't trust Hicks to not block their plans, whatever they might be, and so would not risk £200m+ on something that is so much of an unknown to them.

Or b) DIC could get 50%, then put more money in, thus forcing Hicks out by diluting his share. Well stop for a moment and think about that. It's pretty much accepted that of the two, Hicks has the most money. If putting more money into the club than your partner to force him out was something that could be done, wouldn't Hicks have done it already? By most accounts Gillett pushed himself to the limit in January - all Hicks has to find is say £10m or £20m, which is easier for him to find than most think, and Gillett has lost control of the club. If DIC could do it, Hicks would have done it already.

But the recent silence says a lot.

Hicks isn't getting slagged off in the press any more like he was. If you think where most of that slagging off came from (more than likely) the fact it's all stopped says to me that Dubai have agreed a cease-fire.

The cease-fire can still break down of course.

Hicks' major loans elsewhere aren't due until 2010, from what I can gather, and most of the doomsday predictions about his finances seem to be overplayed. But there are still ways he and Dubai could strike a deal.